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karyo

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Everything posted by karyo

  1. karyo
    Although he has weaken to a depression, he produces some really heavy rain today in the Caribbean.
  2. karyo
    I couldn't agree more! Unfortunately, US news always get priority and this includes natural disasters.
  3. karyo
    Just a matter of hours now until Mangkhut hits the northern Philippines.
  4. karyo
    The wind was also going to be a problem originally, when Florence was forecast to move inland as a cat3/4, but since then it slowed down and weakened. Even more recent forecasts had Florence making landfall as a cat2.
  5. karyo
    Today's models completely kill Isaak. From this weekend onwards the tropics will look very quiet.
  6. karyo
    Not much on the horizon for next week so the Atlantic is going to sleep again.
  7. karyo
    So the slow weakening of Florence has continued overnight and she is now a category 2 with 110mph winds. She is not classed as a major hurricane anymore. The NHC was expecting her to be a category 4 at this stage and cat 2 at landfall so something has caused her to lose some steam. The main concern of course will be the rainfall especially for Southern Carolina and Georgia.
  8. karyo
    Florence has weakened a bit compared to earlier today. The winds are down to 120mph. I wonder if this slight weakening trend will continue tomorrow as she gets closer to land.
  9. karyo
    Yes, the typhoon is much stronger and will not lose speed while Florence although a cat 4 now will lose intensity due to the interaction with the continent once she stalls. By the time she makes landfall she will probably be a cat 2.
  10. karyo
    Yes, this is quite a view! Mind you, looking the outlook after the weekend, it looks like the Atlantic will become very quiet again.
  11. karyo
    Indeed! I think it will depend on the path and influence that Florence makes. For example, the UKMO makes Issac the little satellite of Florence, as she spins him northwards into the Atlantic. The ECM takes him west until he dissipates completely.
  12. karyo
    The 0z GEM takes Isaak through the Caribbean as a TS and then it becomes a hurricane again as he enters the GOM heading for Texas. The other models look far less interesting.
  13. karyo
    Both the Aprege and the GFS so far have shifted Florence's path north and east. The Aprege makes landfall in NC. The GFS out to 96 hours doesn't look like hitting the Carolinas. The UKMO still takes her to NC.
  14. karyo
    An area of thunderstorms in the western Caribbean is moving northwestwards and the NHC is giving it a 40% chance to develop into a tropical depression later this week. If it does, i wonder if it can influence Florence's track by throwing a high pressure ridge between the two storms. The models are currently not making much of this system but this may change in future runs.
  15. karyo
    The UKMO 12z is back on the landfall scenario. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=1&ech=120&carte=1021 The Aprege 12z shows landfall on the Carolina's which is also a change to the morning's output.
  16. karyo
    Thankfully not heading for Japan! They had so many this year.
  17. karyo
    The UKMO, which had the more southerly track and landfall in every output, has jumped ship now. Florence comes close to the coast and retreats.
  18. karyo
    The UKMO is the only 12z model so far that offers a US landfall. However, it has shifted the part a bit north than the earlier runs. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=1&ech=144&carte=1021 Edit: The GEM actually also agrees with the UKMO http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?&ech=150&mode=0&carte=3
  19. karyo
    Yes, no steer to push the hurricane inland.
  20. karyo
    Lol The 12z Aprege on the other hand takes Florence to the North Carolina coast although the run finishes when things are getting interesting. Not clear whether it she would make proper landfall or re-curve to the northeast at this stage but it is closer to the coast than ICON.
  21. karyo
    No landfall from the ICON 12Z, it just moves Florence north and then east in the open ocean.
  22. karyo
    There is also a notable shift north in the 6z GFS so Florence just scrapes the east coast.
  23. karyo
    Looking at this it looks like the only chance for Florence to miss the states is if it takes the more northerly route in the next day or so. If she deepens fast she may do that. The 6z ICON does that and to some extend the Aprege 0z.
  24. karyo
    The 6z ICON has shifted Florence further north and it seems to be missing the chance for a landfall. This is due to a weaker high to the north. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/icone_cartes.php?&ech=120&mode=0&map=2&archive=0
  25. karyo
    The UKMO also has the more southerly path. I can't see it be right about the intensity.
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