karyo

That's good!

Stratospherically, the 12z GFS is a beauty and better than the earlier runs! It ends with a phenomenal displacement of the vortex.

Some of the comments here are pure entertainment!

The area around south of Greenland and Iceland is once again proving a magnet for low development so the high from the south can't successfully extend north enough. Is this linked with the SSTs in the area? This can be a proper winter screwer!

They still haven't released it? That's bad!

Very wise!

The updated ICON is a bit more appetising than this morning's run. It has weak heights to our north and a more southerly jet and a light easterly flow for the northern half of the country. https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/icone_cartes.php?&ech=180&mode=0&map=0&archive=0

The MJO looks rather weak to me to have a significant impact on our weather pattern. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml Any thoughts from the experts?

Any idea what time the Met Office contingency planners 3 month outlook will be released?

Well, the MJO is fairly weak (close to the circle of death) so unlikely to make an impact unless it amplifies. The El Nino is also weak. I think the increasingly wQBO may be doing the damage.

However, they have brought that less cold outcome forward, so I am in two minds about this update.

Those days are numbered thankfully

23 hours ago it was given a 90% chance but today they have downgraded significantly the chances.

A tropical wave close to the Leeward islands has a 90% chance to become a tropical depression in the next few days. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ If it develops into a tropical storm it will be named Patty.

That's fabulous!

Phew

It will feel like a kick down below, if after the painful warmth of next week, we ended up with this chart for late November.

The solar flux is creeping up a bit but at least we are still spotless.

The update never mentions positive or negative NAO. It is written in simple terms for the public. The weather it describes would correlate to positive NAO.

The update up to yesterday was indicating a blocked pattern with high pressure and temperature dropping. Today's update is a typical positive NAO Atlantic driven weather. Huge change! We can only hope that they will be wrong.

Nice to reach 20 blank days

Italy has really paid the price of the high pressure block in Eastern Europe which has not allowed the lows to progressed further east. They just reached Italy and got stuck there. Of course Eastern Europe is not exactly lucky as they have drought. Not a drop of rain in the last month for my hometown in northern Greece and the same applies for much of the Balkans. The farmers must be in despair as there is no change on the horizon. The only good news for Italy is that the weather has dried up considerably in most areas and looking at the models it looks like they can expect more settled weather for the remainder of the week.

I think Kara sea has decent potential for fast refreeze but after that any advance westwards is likely to be slow.

Sadly, I can't see the snow in Scandinavia and western Russia lasting due to the stubborn high pressure over Eastern Europe. It looks like warm southerlies will develop in that area over the coming days and last for quite some time.

Significant warming in the last couple of weeks! http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf Nino 4 - 1.1 Nino 3.4 - 1.1 Nino 3 - 1.0 Already those values are higher than the forecasts