Continental Climate
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Moans, ramps and banter
Continental Climate replied to Community Team's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Just seen a bbc bulletin about record breaking cold and snow in northern usa. When they go cold we go warm. I know it's not scientific but I'm convinced of it. -
An ugly chart for sure. Even the USA is locked out of the cold with the expansion of the high pressure cells to the south. Is it called a Hadley cell? All the cold just bottled up over the poll with nowhere in the mid lat NH getting any. Horrendous. Plenty of time for a change though late Jan early Feb.
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Is the Atlantic going to return on a southerly tracking jet or is it going to barrel through the UK or worse to our north? Cold zonality would be OK but couldn't stand two weeks of warm rain. Hopefully by the end of January we are back in a cold hunt/regime. I think we are all now resigned to this cold snap ending next weekend. That is fine to be honest as the teleconnections ppl said there would be weakening before the next bout of amplification. Hopefully lots of us get snow in the meantime.
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It's model related so you have a right to post it but that's 11 days away and will not verify. For the UK the upcoming spell is decent. Yes its not the 2010 nirvana everyone wants but it was never going to be. We get 5/6 days of cold weather and surprises can crop up. Lots of knee jerk posting on this forum today and absolutely no positivity. Am I also the only member who hates the term " tick tock, tick tock" that will inevitably get trundled out as the days go by. Lol rant over.
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Im not expecting much from this northerly really. I'm in the camp of hoping that there will be some small features pop up with a few hours notice to dump an inch or two as that will do me. However if I'm being totally realistic I'm not expecting it to happen. Hey at least its not zonal.
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We are getting to that stage now where the northerly starts in two and a half days. I'm now increasingly thinking of snow opportunities and longevity. To be honest mainly Snow at this point. If i can just get a few inches on the ground I think it will stick for a good while. Ppl are going to be moving into regionals pretty soon. I'm just praying a trough or two pops up at a few hours notice.
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If you look at those three but especially the UKMO we are not a kick in the teeth away from getting a raging polar vortex nor easter. Just need the GH to be a bit more robust and move a bit east to Iceland scandi and bingo!!! Didn't the teleconnections ppl talk about a scandi high? Do I think it will happen? Not sure, do I want it to happen.....hell yeah!!!
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That's quite a few getting down to -16 850's on Monday and Tuesday. You would have to think that there would be some disturbances in that flow. Today has been an incredible day of upgrades. Currently a 5/6 day freezing cold spell guaranteed maybe 7/8 days of cold with further upgrades. If we can all get a few inches of snow on the ground this could be quite memorable.
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Are we due anything from the initial northerly on sun/Monday? Looks to be mainly showers that will stay out to sea. We don't do well from a northerly!!
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That's not too far away from being quite special. If we can just get the greenie high/wedge to go eastward over scandi could have a good easterly develop. Happy with this morning...very positive.
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I think heights were always due to weaken around 23rd. Not saying the teleconnections ppl are fortune telling gurus but they have long said this would happen on this date. Renewed blocking end of month into Feb. Just a waiting game I suppose.
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Control from GEM is a beaut, yeah I'm happy so far this morning.
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Most should see some snow if that UKMO comes off. At 168 more than likely won't verify but not totally discounting it. Not bad from the gefs either. Quite a cluster keeping it cold. Taking all output so far this morning I think we can be relatively happy. Some obviously won't be as 2010 not being shown.
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I feel some ppl may have been expecting 2010 redux with this cold spell. Reducing your expectations really does help. Like I said in my previous post 5 days with a couple of inches of snow on the ground. Throw in a day or two of freezing fog and I will be very happy. I had 5 days of snow in early December as well. If this spell delivers like I want then I will consider this winter a success regardless of what Feb delivers.
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It does seem that the blocking is more robust on the European models. UKMO APERGE are good. I know we always say it but a really big ECM this morning. If it follows UKMO then we could squeeze a bit more out of this cold spell. I do however believe that blocking will fizzle out although it was always meant to around the 23rd 24th anyway before the next bout of amplification takes hold end of month. If I can get some snow on the ground that sticks for 5 days I will be happy. This is the UK after all.
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It all seems a bit meh, yes we have a few days of cold and someone will get a dumping but we lose all our blocking quite quickly. I was really hoping for a prolonged blocking regime which so far the models have dropped and don't seem interested in reestablishing. Im not saying we won't get blocking later in the month or in February I believe that we will but this spell coming up is so far underwhelming me I'm afraid.
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Just my opinion of course I think it will travel south through the channel and will be all snow for our South Coast contingent.
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That sounds promising doesn't it? A euro model probably focused on our part of the world. BTW what was BFTP's outburst earlier about? Did he fall out of his window in shock at seeing how great the models are? Does he have early access I wonder?
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That's a considerable difference at only 114. Just goes to show more time for upgrades yet. Also worryingly more time for downgrades as well. APERGE is loads better a very sturdy block.
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A cold snowy Feb would be awesome. Can't remember the last time we had anything notable in Feb aside from the BFTE and that was right at the back end. All the updates today just seem to be going our way. Long may it continue
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Such massive changes and this is only a week away. There will be more waxing and waning yet that's for sure. Look at that NH profile. Like someone said if we can get some high pressure to develop svalbard/northern scandi that could push that lobe of the vortex down into Europe and we could then be engulfed in a raging polar vortex induced easterly and a 78 type blizzard. That's what I'm going for anyway.
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Renewal of heights to.our north west. Alright not a technical greenie high but an impressive wedge nonetheless. That's what we need to see ppl heights building and blocking establishing
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It's all become a bit more messy this morning. I'm one of those posters with a glass half empty thus far. Our heights to the north west seem to be decreasing now. Hopefully what has happened is the models have met somewhere in the middle and from now until Friday morning we get little incremental improvements to the northerly and heights to the north west. That's what usually happens in this case I think. What a ball ache it it to get cold into the UK eh?
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Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Continental Climate replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
If I get snow and cold from 15th to the 23rd and couple that with the 5 days of snow on the ground I had early December then I will count this winter as a triumph. Regardless of what happens in February.
