Continental Climate

That would be stunning a nor noreaster!!! Snow showers would get well inland. Issues around longevity but that's another story.

If we could get that high pressure a bit further north and east we would have a screaming north easterly. Don't think it will happen but we can wish can't we?

We are not too far away from dreamland on that ECM chart. That puts us into a Noreaster for the 15th. If we could just get a more robust longer lasting block we would all be in a coldie heaven. That ship has sailed though but the Met update gives me hope of something a bit longer lasting. I genuinely want a nationwide snowy spell so everyone gets a dollop even those on the Isles of scilly. It would have to be special for them though I'm not even sure 2010 was good enough. Come on 12zs steady the ship.

Situations like this are exactly why experienced heads are essential. Newer members viewing this will quite rightly think it's game over. Wiser heads know that GFS usually has a wobble or two at this time scale and will comes back on board after a day or two. Hopefully that's the case in this instance as well. I personally think it's a wobble, however I don't think this will be a memorable cold spell at all probably on a par with what we got up here late Nov early Dec. We got 3 days of falling snow with it sticking around for 5 days. We need the blocking to start reaserting itself soon and that's just not happening.

Whilst I don't think this will happen as indicated here, it is always a risk isn't it?. Less robust blocking means more danger down the line. Anyway onto the 12zs hopefully the ship gets steadied. Always model drama lol why can't we just get a nice smooth countdown to T0 like in 2010. Wishful.thinking.

A good post in my view. If you look at the output say 5 days ago there was a much more robust signal for greenie blocking and the infamous shuffling high to the north was meant to just meander around giving us a prolonged cold period. That signal has evaporated. I've not heard a single mention of a shuffling high for days. Some people are quite rightly frustrated this signal has been dropped. This spell has been watered down last few days in my opinion. Will it get colder yes, will people get snow yes, will this be a period of snowy weather lasting longer than 6 days unlikely now in my opinion. There is no denying the blocking signal has faded last few days.

Yep that could be our next hurdle to get over if that low exerts itself a bit more. Some people will say its a potential snowmaker etc but i view it as a danger to our cold and want it gone ASAP

A good chart no doubt but I think many on here will have hoped for better. We need that high to ridge further north both for longevity and severity.

yes our winters have become so desperate that THIS is classed as an event!!!!

Lovely...more rain!! At least it's cold rain instead of warm.

ECM has to come on board soon for me to have any faith. We seem to have been chasing this cold spell since the new year or even before and it's still over a week away. Without being unduly gloomy I'm assuming this hunt for severe cold (-10 uppers) via a greenie high will fail. We are now talking wedges to get the cold in. It's hard not to get dragged in looking at day 10 charts that offer narnia but we must remember that our little islands are probably situated in the worst possible spot in the NH (at our latitude) for cold weather.

Yep I agree, at no point has anyone said we are getting 2010 redux, which is what I suspect some people on here were expecting. I will be happy with 5-7 days of cold with a bit of snow on the ground and some freezing fog etc. In fact with my job I don't want 2010 as it was a ball ache driving in it. People need to temper their expectations and be happy with some wintry weather.

-12 is showing and if it upgrades further to say -13/14 it's only 2 or 3 degrees shy from the beast from the east. Who'd have thought that 2 days ago when it was showing-7/8s. Quite remarkable really. Anything past next tuesday is JFF and whilst nice to look and speculate on shouldn't be taken seriously. This could be an event for all you daarn saaarf. Oh and of course you Irish lot .

I agree let's see where we are come Monday morning. I know many of us want 2010 redux but that was a once in a hundred year event. For me some hard frosts and possible freezing fog and potential ice days will do just fine. I think this is pretty much guaranteed for much of next week. The following week starting the 15th is still ten days away so anything is possible. Personally I don't think narnia is on the way but just enjoy the cold and frost if you can. It can produce lovely picturesque scenes in itself.

Personally this is sort of where i think we may be heading by the 14/15th. It could of course go a bit further north but a full on blocking greenie high like 2010 is decreasing in probability. Still fab synoptics though and some dry cold frosty weather will do me just fine. Some of the fields round here look like lakes.

I personally think perturbation 3 or 16 is sort of where we will end up. A mid Atlantic south greenie blocking around the 15th. What happens after that I'm unsure. It either sinks or it shuffles.

This post and the pictures provided from Denmark are such a stark reminder how difficult it is to get snow into the British Isles. I mean Denmark is what 450 miles away by boat and yet the weather we are experiencing couldn't be more different. So if the global teleconnections are delivering blizzards to Denmark Holland et al but not us can they be said to have failed on a global level? I personally think not. They have currently delivered snow to North West Europe, just not these tiny bunch of islands. We need something ultra special whilst they don't.

Well I was late in checking the forums this morning. Witnessing all the toy throwing and "told you so", comments from certain people was quite a sight to behold. I personally think we are still on for a colder spell of weather. Am I expecting narnia on the 15th? No. I personally think a pressure rise in mid atlantic/ South greenie will.give snow to some but unfortunately not others. I think mentioning downgrades in a model run is fine as that's what that model is currently saying but there is a way of saying these things. What really gets people's back up is "told you so", comments. They truly add nothing to these forums and I personally think they are aimed at the teleconnections guys who do such valuable work here. Personally I hope everyone gets snow but I fear some are going to be disappointed.

Even though I've been ramping a bit this afternoon I'm going to have to follow your lead here nick. We've all been burned too many times to count. My sensible hat has now been placed back on my head. Let's wait until this is all within t96.

Colossal upgrades across all models this afternoon with GEM and ukmo leading the way although gfs ain't to shabby either. It's just a little messy around Greenland. It's been brought forward by 2-3 days. That's what excites me the most 7/8 days away from lift off.

Holy moly a strong griceland high only 7 days away. We could be looking at -12/14 uppers hitting us in 8/9 days from that vortex approaching scandi. These are truly 80s charts we are looking at. No signs of any bloody shortwaves either....wahoo.

Almost identical that in itself is very encouraging. Think i prefer the ukmo slightly.

That is an awesome chart maybe a day away from greatness. Thank god that pesky shortwave has done one. The whole run is better due to that buggering off.

Excellent post LRD. I must admit I'm unsure about what primes an atmosphere for cold and why the atmosphere at the moment appears primed for cold. Maybe that's lead me to blurt out about short waves lol. It's just I've been burnt so many times in the past. I think it's reverse psychology for me and many others on here we just assume it will fail because it usually does. Onto the 12zs hopefully they will be excellent.

I'm 48 and been on this forum donkeys years. I'm not a prolific poster by any means and I'm certainly not a teleconnections expert like some of the fantastic ppl on here are. I do however have lots of experience of shortwave drama and seeing apparently excellent prospects go belly up at the t72-120 range. I've seen it too many times. I dearly hope we get clean retrogression to greeny and the high shuffles (love that phrase) back and forth along the griceland corridor. I will not fully believe it will happen until we have full model support at t72 or preferably t60. That is how I personally see things I'm afraid.