Continental Climate

I don't want to be a Grinch but all it takes is one pesky shortwave to ruin the whole bloody thing. On this run a shortwave stops the initial push north of the high thus changing the whole output. Yes we got there in the end but who's to say another short wave doesn't crop up to ruin things on the 15th? The teleconnections guys have done wonders in nailing the broad pattern but no one can forecast a little short wave that pops up and diverts all the cold into the Atlantic, that's all it takes. I've seen it too many times.

Sometimes I wish the models didn't go out as far as they do. The chase to deep cold has barely started yet. Shortwaves that can scupper an entire blocking high from going north won't get picked up at 240. Just one little shortwave can bugger up a whole blocking pattern. We need patience and nerves of steel. The shortwave drama has yet to even start. aren't we lucky.

GFS not as good this morning guys. By the 13th we don't have a cut off Greenland high like we did on the 18z. At this range I'm not too bothered. We haven't even got weekends easterly locked down tottally yet so what's the point fretting about a chart 9 days away. No.need to panic yet let's see where it sits.

Yep. I want this to happen I dearly do but the above possibility could happen just as easily as screaming Nor Easters. I for one am keeping realistic and focusing on this weekends possible easterly. Charts 12 days away are pretty but unlikely to verify.

Good ol UK we have these types of synoptics and it's still bloody marginal. only kidding these are great charts. I am still focused on this weekend though as I still think the east could get some snow on the ground, which could stick around for a long time with freezing fog etc. I personally think the high could go another 100/150miles north and give millions more people chance to see the white stuff.

Those charts would lead to -14/16 uppers crashing into Eastern UK going over a still warm North Sea. We would be measuring snow in the ft not inches. I don't think it will happen mind you but just imagine if this verified. Carnage in here

I think there is a decent possibility of snow this weekend if we can get the high even 75 miles further north. Every little helps. Then if its a freezing fog uk high it could stick around for a while.

If I was a betting man I would agree with what you say. We will get a British Isles high that will just sit around on top of us for at least two weeks. That will take us to around the 22nd-23rd. Final week of January most likely a slowly sinking high unfortunately. Hopefully squeeze a few flakes in the east this weekend. I just want some dry weather to be honest, freezing fog would be nice. Deep cold via a greenie or griceland high I'm just not seeing it. I will be happy with dry and cold, just no more rain please.

Gotta think we could get at least a few cms out of this set up especially in the east. This is why I'm still focused on this weekend and not day 12 charts. If we can get the high even 75 miles further north that could literally bring millions more ppl into snow chance territory. This is a very good upgrade.

That is a remarkable image. Also one that is quite scary. Apart from a few relatively cold areas in Eastern Asia the entire NH is above average. Where is the cold even going to come from if we do get a northerly or easterly? Worrying times.

The last couple of days have felt so warm. If it wasn't for the early nights you would think we were in late September. This is actually extreme weather just the exact opposite of what the majority of us want in late December.

There are many people on here who put a great deal of time and effort into researching and explaining the background signals in the hope of better learning about the weather. I know I look forward to their posts as I find them so interesting. Then there are people who seem to want to undermine all that hard work and effort with silly one line posts, as seen above.

I think a lot of these posts stating "it's gonna be mild", "I told you so, we can write off December". " Don't trust the teleconnections, they aren't worth the paper they are written on", all these are just a thinly veiled attack on the people who do consider and study these teleconnections and the hard work they put into showing us their opinions and conclusions. Simply saying "I knew this cold spell was not going to happen all along", doesn't automatically make you a forecasting genius. Try putting as much effort into telling us why the cold spell didn't happen in the first place, instead of just saying " I knew it wouldn't happen.

What would that equate to in snow I wonder

So our cold spell is at an end. I would rate this cold spell as a 5/10. Darlo got a reasonable covering that lasted a few days. We've had snow, freezing fog and ice. So all in all not too bad. Hopefully the chase won't last so long and we are back in the freezer before Xmas.

Looks like darlo could be just a bit too far south for this afternoon snow. Hopefully not.

Not sure about my radar but the showers don't seem to be making it inland. Don't think there will be too much more snow around now. May have to wait until next spell of cold weather, assuming we got one.

Don't think it will be darlos night tonight. May get something around 01.00 everything is going mainly south I think. N Yorkshire could get a good amount.

Heavy snow in darlo nice to see

Wonders never cease. We have snow in darlo. 2 or 3 cms maybe at most but better than nowt.

If the snow is wet up there we don't stand a chance down here.

Raining in darlington as well. Can't say Im that disappointed as I never really expected much to begin with.

Just had an app alert for potentially disruptive snow and ice tonight and tomorrow in darlington. I didn't think we were going to get snow until thur/Fri.

Just went out to do shopping and saw two gritters in darlo. That's a sure sign if ever I saw one.

My app has just upgraded the forecast. Now says snow on Wed, Thursday and Sunday. I'm not expecting much in darlo but there again I don't want much. An inch or two that hangs around for a week with some freezing fog would be nice.