WS Evolution

Saturday afternoon into Sunday Morning should be good for everyone based on that run as the northerly sets in.

As for Sunday morning the region would wake up to widespread snow cover and temps of -5 (if your up early enough)! warmer on the coast but here it will continue to snow!

If that was accurate Lincolnshire would be berried!

Latest GFS is an improvement for Wednesday Night to Thursday Night in terms of snow potential for the region. More precipitation and lower temperatures.

We really need the temperatures to be below forecast for a good widespread covering, but over the last few days they have been slightly above! For example its just under 4C here and its forecast to be 2C by the met office! temp have been consistently above forecast in the North Eastern areas of Yorkshire, particularity in the Vale of York. I am hoping we can get temperatures down to 0C on Wednesday night before the showers arrive. If its already frosty or icy that would be perfect.

There should be a good few hours at least when the showers push that far west, its a shame its such a short true easterly. I remember easterlies in the early 1990's giving snow showers to the east Pennines that lasted for days and days and extremely good depths.

By significant snow I mean settling to a depth to cause problems on the roads(Risk of disruption). I agree it will snow and its not marginal even on the coast, but I don't think it will cause problems at sea level on the coast. Its likely going to be wet snow falling onto ground that is not frozen! although still time for the charts to show even colder weather and I have not looked at the high rez like you said so I could be wrong... What I am trying to do is determine where the most snow will settle and I don't think that will be at sea level on the coast. -27°C at our friends house in north Sweden ! and its heading this way!

With the warm sea and the forecast max temperatures 3 C inland, I think any significant snow (Risk of disruption) on Thursday will be away from the coast and at altitudes of >50m, depending on the distance from the coast. It will be colder further west, but less snow falling. I think there will be a point inland that will be the optimum position for settling snow with more favorable temperatures and plenty of snow falling. I also think Wednesday night could be very promising for anywhere over 100m and slightly inland from the coast. North Yorkmoors particularly. In areas that do get snow over night Wednesday the chance of significant snow(Risk of disruption) Thursday must surely increase with snow on the ground keeping the temperature lower than otherwise. Exciting times.

Based on the latest charts I would say the high risk areas for significant snow with some disruption on Thursday will be: Yorkshire Wolds North York Moors Lincolnshire Wolds Howardian hills A few specific routes affected from a snowy Easterly / North Easterly: A166 @ Garrowby Hill is normally a bad spot for disruption. Also A1079 between Market Weighton and Bishop Burton a bad spot for disruption.All routes across the North York moors, particularly the A169 picking to Whitby road.I guess there will be many many more.

Temperatures are generally higher then forecast in the north east which is a slight concern. Currently over 5C with a max of 3C forecast. Moderate rain at the moment and locally its forecast to turn to snow over the hills of the North York moors this afternoon.

The cold continues here. Its dropped below freezing -0.5C for the 3rd night now, hopefully this will cool the ground nicely for some settling snow from Wednesday onwards.

Its now below freezing here in thick freezing fog.

The cold spell started here with some impressive low surface temps: Forecasters underestimating in many areas: Max here today of 1C from a low of -2 and now falling again. Currently 0.5C with thick fog, ice and frost. I feel this could be a theme for many... lower temps then forecast and frozen ground; therefore a greater chance of snow. With very low visibility and ice I think a weather warning would be justified.

Don't forget the cold spell is already here for many... maybe not the cold uppers, but cold at surface level: The temp in the vale of york got up to 1C @ 11.30am, but back down again to 0.5C and was -2 this morning! Temps below forecast (+4), with frost and ice persisting, will probably last all day in the shade. With the surface temps already cold it must be good news for the prospects of settling snow if / when the showers arrive.

A photo I took this time last year ... Nov 2008 convection showers from a north easterly! in Scarborough District on the A170. Just shows what can happen with a cold flow and a warm north sea, even in November. Scarborough was almost cut off for a while and the Whitby road from Scarborough was closed for a few hours! Could be a repeat this year but more widespread. Checked the date and it was in November 22nd ! By Dec 4th there was even more snow see: My link

Its also colder here than forecast -2, extremely hard frost... Should cool the ground nicely ready in preparation for the snow showers Monday night onwards (hopefully). Under high pressure its often allot colder then forecast. Last year I remember day time temperatures of -1 to -3 in thick freezing fog, when +4 to +5 was forecast.

Based on the gfs charts I have seen... From Monday night to Friday I would say the high-risk areas of significant (affecting transport) snow fall, from frequent light to moderate snow showers in England will be: East Yorkshire (Yorkshire wolds would be bad) North Yorkshire East of the Pennines (North york moors would be particularly bad near the coast) goes from sea level to 250m + very quickly. The North East coast (east facing hills will be bad) Lincolnshire and Humberside Norfolk All the south east and south coast Also note that at times (when upper temps are higher) the coast maybe too warm for snow (because of the north sea) and it will be a sleet, rain and snow mix!, inland from the coast it should be of snow from Monday until Friday. My thoughts just for Fun! and details will change! The thoughts are biased to my area! but I do think North York Moors and Yorkshire wolds have the best chance of seeing significant snow from this event.

40min in: "Climate change is is real or a con!" http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b00p36pz/Richard_Bacon_02_12_2009/

Video: From bbc news Its not unusual for the river to burst to this level at least once a year. The 2000 level caused far more problems.

The river has already peaked at just under 4.5m above normal, but northing close to the floods of 2000 when the Ouse reached 5.4 meters above summer levels. HUGE traffic jams built up on the A64 near York after a major route into the city was blocked by flooding today. My link Traffic B1222 Market Place (Cawood bridge) closed due to flooding at B1223 Rythergate. A19 Fulford Road both ways closed due to flooding between St Oswald's Road and B1222 Naburn Lane. Approach with care. The flooding is also affecting the surrounding area. York City Council have said that the road is likely to remain closed for the rest of the day.

The river Ouse at Beningbrough North Yorkshire: 1st dec 2009 The river is not even in the picture, thats normally a field! As far as you could go on the foot path. Too deep to use the road even in a high sided vehicles The Ouse looks more like a lake.

The date should be the 8th and not the 10th... ooops

Moorlands Wood: 8th Oct 2009

Where my friends live in north Sweden: http://195.196.36.242/view/view.shtml They had allot of snow last night.