Jayces

Honestly folks, what happens each day of this week starting with tomorrow really will be a nowcast situation. There are some great knowledgeable people on here but they can only advise on what the models are showing (which changes every 6 hours) and give input in to what may happen based on experience I want it to snow as much as everyone else but experience has taught me that in this situation the answer to that question really won't be known until Tuesday night

Spot on. There was an 80% chance of an Easterly this weekend but instead we've had a mild blip much to even the experts on here surprise I think. My years on this great forum have taught me one thing, wintry weather especially snow can only be forecast accurately a few hours out, maybe 12 - 24 but beyond that I never take what's being said too seriously! Chionomaniac is right unfortunately and it's always the way with the situations the marginality and the rain to snow / snow to rain situation could mean expectations not met come Wednesday or equally a nice surprise. I'd like to say I've stopped waking up in the middle of the night to check outside when snow night be falling but I still do even at nearly 50 years old but the disappointment is always a downer when there's nothing. Of course on the plus side when there's loads is great!

The drama on here happens every year and from experience no model is ever right beyond 2 to 3 days but one may pick up a different signal and then as that time frame gets closer all models diverge on a solution of that signal. If you're of a nervous disposition then only look at 48 - 72 hours range as after that there is almost always disagreement and the nerves start kicking in. Personally I don't mind seeing the FI charts beyond 72, it's fascinating seeing how the different models work and seeing all the different outcomes but that's the thing they ask show a possible outcome however unlikely but into its at 0 we won't know which one was correct.

As always patience is needed. Those posters who I have great respect for are suggesting a possibly long and potentially cold spell really starting next weekend and going on through much of February. If that happens then in time I expect everyone will benefit from the white stuff

Hi All, another year and it's looking like it's time to start lamp post watching again I love this site, the community and the model and regional threads provide lots of entertainment. Fingers crossed after a short roller coaster over the next few days things settle down and GH from cold to colder to freezing and lots of lovely

I think because this used to be near closing time for UK pubs, so you come home after the pub and checked out the 18z GFS. It may also be that it was a bit crazy sometimes with the output as if it had been drinking so comparing it to someone who has got drunk. It's one of those reasons I'm sure. Either way, all the outputs are looking more and more likely that we are about to enter a special period for model watching and it's hard not to get excited with what's being shown.

Indeed there was

I imagine anyone reading this thread from any country where snow is a regular occurrence and in copious amounts must think us complete bonkers with our lamp post watching, radar analysing and arguing about whether the event is a write off or the best thing since last time 24 hours before it's due to be over ;-)

I'm not saying you're wrong but there are a lot of people writing this event off because the radar doesn't currently show much snow but as others have said these Met office warnings are from now until Sunday night so it's impossible to make any statement based on the current radar images. What everyone who is concerned needs do to is relax and see what develops. If there's no snow this time tomorrow then people can get upset but I'd like to think the Met office warnings are based on fact not fiction.

The radar shows current weather, not the next 24 hours?

How can you say was hoping when the warning goes from now until tomorrow lunch time?

Is that like exactly 4pm or could it start a little earlier or later? Also is there a chance that the forecasted 10 - 20 cm could fall all at once at 4pm and then nothing? ;-)

Wow charming, some respected posters giving opinions based on their experience and knowledge and that's your response?

Gather it all up and put it in the freezer ;-)

Snowing on South Norwood (Croydon) yay, long may it continue for everyone

Won't really know until Fri / Sat to be honest

I wss hoping for more then what we've had so far in South London, guess it's not going to be our time this time. Even a cm would have been nice, just dustings that have quickly melted so far

8PM? I thought there weren't any showers forecast until early tomorrow?

I'm sure I read a post from someone somewhere saying that grit is no use with this sort of snow as it's dry and grit only works on wet snow? Can't remember who or where though sorry. I guess we will find out in the morning :-)

As it's showers and streamers the only way you will get an answer to your question is to radar watch i'm afraid. Though you are under an amber warning so chances are good.

You can also hover over the username top left of their post and a pop up appears with ignore user being one of the options.

The below has been added to the warning for Tuesday into Wednesday on the Meto site so looks like we will be seeing some amber warnings soon if not today then definitely tomorrow.. Separate Amber warnings are being issued to cover those areas which currently look most likely to see impacts

Great respect for @johnholmes unbiased views and his advice has always been to compare like for like not run by run so below we have yesterdays GFS 06z 144 Versus todays 120 so same time, same parameters etc and the cold air (850's) is further South on today's run. Okay, it's not a huge amount but for our small island it can make a massive difference for a lot of people. Hope I did this right.

Funny, a week ago it was game over for the whole country when the cold pool was shown to be heading into France and then 24 hours later it all changed. I think there should be a caveat for this thread that any discussion about the models use the words if or potentially rather then making statements suggesting that something will happen 100% guaranteed 7 days away. Yes I agree there is a warm up being shown but it's less today then yesterday and the MET update is still saying a cold March which suggests it's (potentially) game on? @Bring Back1962-63 has written some excellent posts on why he believes the low on Friday will behave differently and @Weather-history has provided evidence showing how what the charts show won't necessarily result in the weather we would expect (IE snow instead of rain). The trend is a winter storm on Friday, just where it hits and how severe is still too far out. Also I'm no expert but don't those ensembles show a wide spread from the 2nd of March but the majority with negative temps meaning it will still be cold?