Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?

Jayces

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    836

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    1

 Content Type 

Everything posted by Jayces

  1. Jayces
    Worry not folks, the current forecast for Xmas Eve is SNOW! http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=6390&mode=3&carte=0&run=0 Let's see if this goes down better here then it did in the MOD thread Bah, the run's changed and the snow's gone! :-( Can't believe it, I was sure it was a certainty!
  2. Jayces
    Looks like it's going to get cold again around the end of November, http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=5814&mode=2&carte=0&run=0 and Christmas Eve / Christmas day is looking very chilly, might even be some of the white stuff around :-) http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=6384&mode=2&carte=0&run=0 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=6390&mode=3&carte=0&run=0
  3. Jayces
    Not that I don't want to see a nice summer but surely the fact that the same combination of tabloid and weather expert had numerous headlines like the one below going throughout the winter means it makes a mockery of the whole forecasting thing? http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/443462/Winter-2013-expected-to-be-worst-since-1947-with-heavy-and-persistent-snow-forecast-for-UK
  4. Jayces
    Seeing as the snow cup was a draw do we all get a prize?
  5. Jayces
    Well at least all the stirling work done by Kentish cz and others won't be wasted, we can just rename the thread to 2014/15 and lock it until October ;-)
  6. Jayces
    This should be highlighted and pinned somewhere and more people should take heed of it. People often post varying thoughts on FI but the above really applies to all our weather all year round especially when marginality creeps into it.
  7. Jayces
    I'd say judging by the fact that big differences are apparent in the 3 big models (GFS, ECM & UKMO) as early as 72 hours that FI is much closer then 144. This is based on the 12z from earlier, for example the UKMO has 2 low pressures on Monday compared to 1 on the ECM and GFS.
  8. Jayces
    These 2 posts sum things up nicely. I'm no expert on weather forecasting but I can open up 3 tabs on Meteociel and compare GFS, UKMO and ECM charts of just pressure and temperatures side by side and see big differences for our little island starting between Monday and Tuesday. And therein lies the problem with getting too excited on here and shows that really forecasting is still very hard beyond 3 days especially when there is a divergence in the big 3 at only 72 hours away. I often see posts of where FI starts and to be honest IMHO it's the point where models start to lose agreement with each other so in this case T72 ish so Monday for the uninitiated. It's nice to see the potential (yeah I know that's a swear word here) but at the moment the only thing we are certain of is that we are in for a wet and windy weekend and then there it looks like getting colder as next week progresses but no idea how cold or if there will be snow and if so where. Hopefully lots everywhere but only time will tell.
  9. Jayces
    Ian Ferguson posted on the model thread think the day before yesterday saying the Meto then had low confidence in the 1-6 day forecast but high confidence of the 6-15 day forecast of a return to zonal flow (I think westerly but not neccesarily mild westerly) so nobody should be surprised if this is what happens as it is the forecast. Unfortunatly I don't think the right ingredients / building blocks are in the right place for a proper wintery outbreak at the moment. They are there but just not where they should be (ie cold pool in Europe for example). I hope we don't have a snowless winter, that would be sad :-(
  10. Jayces
    I think the fairest thing to say is that the knowledgeable posters here are posting what could happen depending on how things pan out whereas people like the Meto have to forecast the most likely outcome. It's no good for the Meto saying it might snow everywhere next week if a change in the models suddenly wipes it out. They have to forecast based on the % chance of something happening and I don't think it's currently high enough for snow everywhere. Also they need to concentrate on this weekend I guess.
  11. Jayces
    What time is the snow coming?
  12. Jayces
    So which is it, cold potential or no signs of cold? They can't both be right?
  13. Jayces
    I'm sure it will all be a different story again in 12 hours time :-) Happy birthday John!
  14. Jayces
    15 days away, hmmm I'll eat my hat if that happens as shown. Models this morning have quite a big shift at day 10 let alone day 15.
  15. Jayces
    Is it time to brush of my measuring device for the snow depth cup yet?
  16. Jayces
    Wild here on the 8th floor in central Croydon. I thought the air conditioner was on until I realised it was the wind coming through a hole in the ceiling!
  17. Jayces
    Correct me if I'm wrong but wasn't the tweet from #Essexweather who are I believe an independent weather forecast company and nothing to do with the Met Office? As far as I am aware they pay to have access to the MO-GREPS model but aren't Met Office employees? So their opinion is just another one like the many here as to what may or may not happen? Apologies if this is OT mods but the thread is filled with enough confusing conflicting opinions as it is that we don't need any incorrect statements as well. Oh and further apologies if I am actually wrong and #essexweather are a Met Office branch. What I think there should be more of in this thread are posts like the one earlier that explained the 25% / 75% options on the low pressure (I believe most people call them short-waves incorrectly?) as posting charts with diagrams of what needs to go where and things we should look out for is a lot easier to understand then describing what needs to happen.
  18. Jayces
    I believe this is a Net Weather TV joke to do with certain people in the past posting excessively about a m o d e r n winter so they filtered the word to mean something else. I could be wrong though.
  19. Jayces
    I looked at the paper in the shop and there is no mention of that headline in the first half a dozen pages or so either this is just on their website in which case I doubt it is seen by as many people or maybe they are saving it for another day?
  20. Jayces
    Just reading the comments to that Daily Express article and this one made me giggle. Go to the beach and pick up a pebble. Take it home and place outside on the windowsill. If the pebble is wet its raining If the pebble is warm its sunny. If the pebble is cold its cold. If you can't find the pebble its foggy. Who needs the Met office.
  21. Jayces
    I see the usual model mayhem has started in the model thread with hints of cold appearing a few days ago and since then disappearing, reappearing,downgrading, upgrading and then downgrading again causing all the usual stress we see in there every Winter. Some are writing off the whole Winter before it's even started! Think at this point for us next week we can guarantee it's going to be colder and wet this coming week but that's about it, we won't know if we are going to get any falling snow until Tuesday tbh.
  22. Jayces
    Apologies John, I thought you mentioned it being first on both occasions.
  23. Jayces
    Yet I believe according to John Holmes the GFS picked today's storm first and was the first to lessen it's impact on I think the 18z on Saturday night. We shall see, no doubt another rollercoaster up until the last minute, this is just like snow watch.
  24. Jayces
    Quite windy here.
  25. Jayces
    I liked it because it's funny but seriously folks there is still another few hours yet before the potentially damaging winds are expected to arrive
×
×
  • Create New...