Fitzwis

Snow streamer anyone?

Perfect for Channel streamers too What an amazing week of model watching and I am not at all surprised that GFS has finally fallen into line with ECMWF and UKMO. Generally speaking, all models have performed well considering the current synoptics which are rare these days for the British Isles. And despite the fact that GFS has flipped and flopped over the last 24 to 48 hours, lets not be too harsh on the model that was one of the first to spot the trend way out in FI that has led us to the currently projected cold spell.

GFS is like a flip flop in a chip shop at the moment. From my observations over the years, whenever a potential cold set up is on the cards, GFS spots the potential in FI, withdraws the idea, reinstates the idea, goes Pete Tong then comes back on board within the 72 hour time frame, especially if all the other models are still predicting cold within the same timeframe. And this is one of those times GFS - Good @ Forecasting Snow (within the 72hr timeframe) ECMWF - Exciting Cold Modelling Without Fear UKMO - U K Modelling Outsider (just kidding) Next week, the weather will be very cold and snowy, nationwide, guaranteed

I know that one liners are not welcome in this particular thread so I shall make this post a 2 liner. It's just one run!

a noticable increase in the wind here now - my 8 year old daughters eyes pop out of her head when she hears the howl around the house

Hi all Wind starting to pick up here now - recent report of a 73mph gust in NW France (Chemoulin) and check out the data from the Channel Light Vessel, noticeably the pressure drop in the last 3 hours: http://www.ndbc.noaa...time2/62103.txt

Hi all The rain has stopped here for now and the wind has just started to increase. A gust of 64mph at Quessant (NW French coast) has recently been recorded and satellite representation of the low over the Bay of Biscay is impressive with the centre due to pass very close to our islands around midnight. The strongest winds expected here will be between midnight and 03:00 with gusts of up to 70mph expected. Time to batten down the hatches, ensure the family are safe and prepare for a wild night.

Morning all - very windy here in Jersey at the moment, but dry (thank goodness) after all the rain we had yesterday --- I encountered two trees down this morning which caused huge tailbacks into the town centre - fortunately, nobody injured. Stay safe across the Channel today folks

Gust of 82mph recorded at Needles http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-18363905

camera is at the ready...will be heading out soon ...

Hi QuantumSnow Sky to our SW turning very dark now but no lighting or thunder seen or heard yet ... can't be far away

Morning all An overcast, wet and breezy morning here in Jersey this morning. Our local met office are expecting the winds to increase gradually during the day to between strong force 7 and gale force 8 by this afternoon with gusts up to 55mph possible this evening. Unusual for this time of year for sure... http://www.jerseymet.gov.je/

Thanks for the update. Some impressive figures there. Getting very gusty here now.

I can confirm it's very windy here now. It's going to be a wild few hours.

Becoming very windy down here in the island now. Rain has been persistant and heavy since 18:00. It's going to be a wild few hours. Just got back in from playing 5 a side and the roads are very quiet. At least people have taken heed of the warnings from our local met department

Local forecasters have just issued warnings here for gusts of up to 70mph after midnight.

Morning all Having just checked our local shipping forecast, Thursday nights storm has the potential for causing some damage here, not to mention the severe gale forecast here for tonight. Just glad that our local forecasters are taking Thursday's threat seriously with our local media already warning of stormy conditions for the next 36 to 48 hours. A blessing in disguise perhaps that the worst of the storms are due to hit late at night when most people will be safely in their homes.

I have, I have!!! lol ... I reckon you guys in the South are in for a treat

lol...very unprofessional terminology I know with my last post but this is intense. Bright blue fork lightning lighting up the whole sky coupled with heavy rain. The best storm we have had here for a while! A little unexpected as well, especially as our local met were going for occasional showers with the risk of thunder earlier on this evening.

WOOOOAAAA...HUGE prolonged flashing followed by exceptionally loud thunder! Amazing

Hi all Impressive lightning displays here in the island for the last hour or so, not particularly frequent but exceptionally bright and it has just started to rain heavily Good luck along the South Coast overnight

Very active cell passing to our south east... frequent lightning, thunder and dramatic sky ... nice B)

Hi all Had a lovely storm here this morning between 11:00 and 12:00. Frequent lightning coupled with loud "crackling" thunder and torrential rain. Awesome stuff

Some "weather" on its way for us here in the islands. Could get interesting in the next hour or so if those cells to our SW keep on developing

Thanks John Snow in November / December on this scale in Jersey is quite unusual, especially in recent times. However, as a child, I do remember winters during the late seventies and early eighties producing appreciative snowfall as early as Guy Fawkes night. Talking in more general terms though, snow is more common on the island than people seem to think especially during the months of January and February where snow days can be fairly common, given the right synoptics of course. The main difference being that lying snow tends to disappear fairly rapidly, unless the conditions are extreme which have been known to occur, but not on a regular basis