snowbunting

Interesting to see the GFS 12z introduce colder polar maritime air just before Christmas. It suggested this a few dats ago. time will tell.

6 depressions/lows deflected to the north of the Uk on the gfs 12z when in recent years they would have nailed the western isles. I cannot agree with you on this one Blasty.. winter is far from over.

Oh dear. winter of wildcards just thrown the joker! Talks of doom and gloom. Remember some of you have already seen snow this winter... early! Look at the way all the charts deflect those lows North... thats good too. That polar vortex is pretty pathetic. Ive been out running on the 23rd of december in shorts and tees. Then it snowed the 25th. We live in the Uk. A very small island which has a massive ocean as a neighbour. I still think we are in for a treat.

What did I tell you! Yes CFS is being a complete metaphorical tease!

Its a year of a rather tame atlantic. It really doesn't get any more promising than this!

Most years I would agree with you, this year I'm not so sure. Just a hunch. Nothing to do with models. Just a little feeling I have.

Wow, 1995 all over again

Wow the 12Z GFS really pulled a stunner of a run in Fl territory. With a Greenie high building bringing a Nly blast. Did have a look at the ECM and its looks like it may very well marry up! Exciting chart watching about to commence.

Up to day 11...much n such the same.... high pressure slowly giving way to the atlantic... but the GEFS after this point could be anyones guess if the ensembles is anything to go by. Still have a gut feeling that things will change mid december.

The pub run here to tease us again...!

Bingo from our pub run on the GFS, though not sure if it is in the right spot!

Suspect Greenie high will nake an apoearance mid december...

Look at those GFS charts. High pressure firmly in command at the helm. Easy does it. I am happy for Eastern Europe to dive into the freezer. Unique and exciting. High pressure close to hand will always have a potential to invite a flood of colder air.

Excuse my ignorance, but does that animation show a split polar vortex?

This winter is nothing like last winter, believe me I know as I have not lost my wellie boot in the mud on the croft! It is a winter of wild cards.

Agreed, Greenie high most likely

Choices, choices choices, cold from the west (18z) or cold from the east (12z)?

what does that mean?

That's a better run for cold seekers.... 18Z Again high wants to elbow in on the fun. But it just needs that high to take a few steps to the side and hey presto...

Worst perhaps shorter term but to be honest if that is all the Atlantic can throw at us in terms of zonal as far as I am concerned it is still game on mid December.

Looks like you will get it too. unless the models change. I suspect it is going to be late december before we see a seriously cold spell. But I am happy to wait till Christmas.

It wouldnt be the first nor the last time that GFS pulled something out of the metaphorical freezer in Fl just to throw it out at around 240hrs and for it to disappear then with a few days to go.... back again. It did this December 2010. mid month it wanted to go zonal with a high slipping south.. instead the greenie High, it was massive... together with a high over us slipped slightly more west. It allowed a dam line of 510 down over the south of England. In fact similar situation to the one Matt described in his above post. Its still all to play for.

Expect the unexpected. At least it will be drier up here in the far North West. Hard winter for us on the way.

Woohoo. drier than average winter.. I can cope with that!@

Not often you see the pub run agreeing with the 0z GFS charts. upto time 240 ish, the ECM is also beginning to toy nicely with a Northerly outbreak 4th to 7th of december ... roughly. as that depression from the south bangs into that colder air.. potential for more snow for those in higher parts of NE england, south scotland. the GFS is also picking up zonal weather and a very positive NAO by the end of the run... way out I know but I feel that will continue to get pushed further back into december.