snowbunting

Dont be too downbeat.. The Fergie has just tweated to say they have tweaked the meto model so it is in line with other models.

What about the 2nd Nly? Tweaking implies the meto model might be struggling with what is a pretty complicated situation.

The models if anything hsve intensified that second Nly outbreak this morning... The Uk is about to go into the freezer.

Wow... again... this time around charts taking turn to bring some very cold wintry weather our way. Yesterday the GFS today the ECM. The mean ensembles still sticking with a very cold signal. The timing and intensity of the second cold northerly might be the tell tale sign of what happens afterwards. Just keep a thought close to hand, in Dec 2010 the GFS picked up the freezing signals in Fl, then dumped the idea for an omega block high or something along that lines.. well the rest we know is history. I would love to know what our professional weather forecastors are thinking about wintry whispers. Its looking very wintry first half of Jan. Paypack for such a benign autumn and start to winter.

Neither can I seemingly!

Oops typo... on phone big fingers@@

A wee thought. When storm Barbara was due to hit our shores. It was the ECM that put it into the storm of doom category. Exceedingly deep low tracking just to the NW of us. The GFS kept it realistic and the path pretty much spot on. Worst winds over Faeroes. Why would these two charts flip flop around in reliability? What if the GFS has found something interesting. It does happen and it is overdue. Surely with a very quiet atlantic, something must surely give. Besides Santa sent the kids sledges, last time he did that was Dec 2010!!!

Whatever the runs bring us the next few days at least it wont be flooding or atlantic storms. This is rather exciting!

Wow... that run from the GFS was pretty jaw dropping. What if the ECM doesnt downgrade?

I was thinking more land than water as per the run of the GFS 0z. Its not showing the blocking that Glacier Point was talking about in a previous post. But I can imagine alot of potential for cold air for the UK in January.

Is this the same kind of rumblings on a different chart?

Positive height anomolies over greenland and swalvbard would suggest a potential for Nly blocking? And therefore a change in air mass for us in the uk? From polar martime to polar continental.

Agreed Blasty. Very cold events do no have to originate from NLy blocking events. We have seen plenty on the past come polar maritime directions.

Far more opportunities exist for colder weather to topple in down from the NW. Regardless of what model is analysed. I feel far more confident that we will have wintry weather in January compared to a very zonal second half of December. Optimistic yes... pessimistic definately not.

Can I join in? 3.1C Think first part of Jan we are heading into the freezer!

Good morning folks. Models are beginning to liven up after an early december slumber. I was looking at the ensemble means for early part of Jan. With a Nly blast just after new year and then what looks a collapse into much colder air 5days later. The position of the high in the atlantic looks crucial but I suspect it will ridge northwards.

ECM still holding onto the idea of an atlantic ridge with nly airflow at215z. The GFS has thrown the idea out of the door. Suspect it will be a mixture of the two. January looking very unsettled and pretty cold at times too with very cold NWlies.

Yes we are expecting some more wintry weather.. allbeit a little slushy.

Wow. Woke this morning to a Greenie high, Nly flow and a block to the altlantic in early Jan with both the ECM and GFS agreeing for once at 240hrs. Cold core and wild cards indeed. Im not so good at teleconnections, stratospheric drivers etc but what has changed in the models direction last few days? Away to batten down the hatches in North Lewis. Storm Babs is knocking on our doors.

We live in North Lewis. Right in the firing line. All ferries and buses cancelled tomorrow. So our family will stay in. I suspect this one might cause a few surprises (adventures).

The meto office has issued us with a yellow be aware warning for lightning and wintry showers wed into Thursday for the western Isles. Any idea how severe it is likely to be? From the charts the Western Isles is about to get all flavours of weather over the next few days.

Very true. The GFS has tended to play lows up, this time around it was the ECM that brought in the monster low scenrio in the long range. Looking at the differences in air masses on the other side of the pond, I suspect the GFS has it spot on.. eeekkk

Hmmm. Think the ECM will show where the christmas low will be placed. Thank goodness we have had a dry autumn. Otherwise flooding nightmare with low after low present.

Zonality surely not all bad? Prefer it to the anticyclonic gloom. I still think its too marginal to call for the big day. The polar maritime air is knocking at the door on5+days time. More optimistic now than 4days ago! Ive seen zonal pattern before bring alot of wintry weather on a strong positive NAO. Beginning of Jan 1984. These charts arent horrendus by any stretch.

Starting to see the polar vortex wind up at the end of these GFS runs. Christmas eve looks stormy (still). To be honest, would rather see cold zonality spill down from the NW as that gives us more chance of a NLy outbreak here in Scotland. Alot seems to be depending on that strength and placement of that Russian High, November promising December dampner January might be the joker in the pack looking at the change to zonality.