snowbunting

In agreement with you there. Until longer term teleconnections signals firm up, it is pointless looking beyond +144 hrs on any model. Thats twice now the GFS has sent a signal of a great Nly down around 7-10 days and twice its now ended with a deep low and a not budging euro high. Watching the Greenie high by the way. I have been watching the CFS for trends in runs and whilst there are a few who might slate it.. one thing it has picked up on... no Nly blocking trend. Its right so far.

It seems the ECM, ensembles and GFS are moving towards a much colder mid month. The NAO looks like it will head slightly negative. Much better runs for cold lovers.

Is this the same Nly outbreak that broke our hearts a few days ago when the METO said no?

Maybe that cold pool of water (the cold blob) in the north Atlantic is playing havoc with the forecasts and their models?

Eek... no we dont want that! Very deep area of low pressure.

Was that March 2006 by any chance John?

To be honest I prefer when it snows stays for a few days then just goes. After a few days it tends to ice over and become hardpacked and basically a pain in every respect. Living in the North of Scotland we have had snow events which have led to snow lying on the ground over weeks transforming to hardpacked ice.. 1999, 2001, 2002, 2004, 2006, 2009, 2010 and 2013. An easterly wind isnt great for us on the west for snow. But we get it cold n dry which is a bonus. However, a Nly is.

No thats the rainfall radar for tonight at 730ish.

Thought this might warm your cockles. Far NW if this isles ending rather wintry

No idea which thread I am in... but happy new year folks. This lightweight has decided cold and settled will do just nicely. Saves the fields in a mess and I get to enjoy dramatic sunsets.

Showers turning a tad wintry behind the fronts here on Lewis. Currently 3C and temp falling.

Perhaps the reliability issues are due to the perennial cold blob in the North Atlantic cutting off some of the warm water (energy) supply for fronts and depressions from the atlantic. Who knows!!!

My hunch too.. that is a mighty area of high pressure... almost an omega block...1040mb+ will not shift quietly.

Thanks Dennis. Is it a bit like the the impact of a sudden stratosphetic warming event?

Looking at it overnight its the GFS that has moved the second Nly to the east. With the ECM giving for a chilly Nly. GFS The ECM Examining the ensembles for next sat it is pretty clear.... they are in a mess! That low to the south changes in direction and intensity. Can an area of low pressure so far south away from the mix of polar and tropical air masses have such a powerful effect on the area of high pressure? The trend is however, there with settling down of weather in January. Its going to get cold. Where that high goes after that is anyones guess. Heart: the 2nd Nly. Head: the High bringing settled cold weather. Gut feeling: told hubby to buy in some salt for our track/road out. It is going to snow. Forget the weather models, my wrist is aching!!!

Are you suggesting Nick that the teleconnections are all wrong for that second Nly outbreak in laymans terms???

Wheres my wine???? Its that low near the azores... tempremental!

How bizarre... pub run has just invited the second Nly again. Whats going on?

Is it just my imagination or are the error bars much wider for the 6th than another other date?

Slightly negative NAO can still correlate to wintry outbreaks. I was having a look at NAO archives for some key snowy events. Some were even slightly positive. JAN 84 Was very cold and snowy with an NAO of +1.66, Jan 93 +1.6 Nly gales and blizzard conditions. +0.77 and +0.29 for Jan and Feb 1999 again some stonking cold outbreaks. So not bad news if it is slightly positive

So will I.

Check out Fergies tweat.

Meto models has had to be tweaked.. according to Fergie weather..I would imagine tweaking can range from a minor time adjustment to something much bigger.

It wouldnt surprise me at all. We are heading into the freezer in January.