snowbunting

There we have it. First tentative signs of a Nly airflow. Induced from a Greenie High. Think it is best to look at the NAO going negative on the emsembles. It is way out on the run, but supports my hunch. Sorry guys. Gut instinct rules with me much of the time.

I think its going to come from a Nly blast and Greenie high extending down.

Our high level stratospheric cloud today. Shortly after this the main part went and oily pearl white. Extremely high up. The sun rising was another 45minutes away. This is the part that gets me. Last time we had conditions like this was Dec 2012, Jan we had a spate of SSW. Very cold spring Feb2006... the same very cold spring Feb1996 the same. Very cold spring. So why should this be no different. I dont buy into a full blown atlantic driven pattern. It doesnt feel condusive to what we have seen with lows shooting northwards to svalvbard.

Personally think it will take another stratospheric warming over the poles to weaken the strength of the PV. I noticed on the second last chart just how sausage like the PV is forecast to be. Another warming event will almost certainly split that... then the fun and games could begin. I have no idea how close we are to a reversal of the QBO... its overdue.. and Im still trying to work out where the MJO fits into this as well! Given how dry and non typical this winter has been so far I wouldnt be surprised if we see something special late winter. Show isnt over!

5.1 please. Think feb will start of atlantic dominated then effects of SSW will begin to show their hand.

Hmmm that nly blast was pretty severe though. Winds were very strong and blowing in Graupel and thundersnow. I personally think the GFS and ECM got it right. A brief Nly followed on by a toppler high pressure. The easterly was grasping at straws. If you want an easterly wait till feb. The coldest part of our winter isnt here yet.

It was march 06 that turned really brutal. Most snow I had seen for years. Recorded 17 days of snow lying.

The mild warmth just before this baby lands a punch. If Im not mistaken that is a SSW. The GFS is really good at predicting them long range. Long term blocking I wouldnt bet against now. Feb looks very very interesting. It is to forget the cold blob in the atlantic ocean. But from my untrained eyes it seems to be where alot of the high pressures increase from.

The hunt continues that easterly was always going to be grasping at straws. You might want to draw your attention to another nly outbreak in 9 days time as the PV finally moves out of Canada. Ive seen it a few times now and the NAO forecasts would support it. The ensembles support that kind of setup too albeit slightly different times.

On the topic of reminicing about times gone by. It has been a long long time since we had proper blizzard conditions. But on Lewis that is exactly what we have tight now. It is defo snowing though rainfall radar shows sleet. Meto forecasted snow shower then sleet. So much colder than forecasted. Presently have 2 inches of snow on ground. 50mph gusts... more snow falling. Proper little blizzard. Here is hoping that occluded front doesnt have too a warm an upper.

This looks like a another prospective Nly.. Respective heights over Greenland, PV moving towards Russia.

Cracking Greenie high Nly appearing in Fl. One to watch folks as teleconnections leave the status quo.

I'm guessing here that the prospect of that easterly next week has just gone awol when you talk of SW Zephers!

What does that mean Knocker?

Maybe just an incy wins teeny weeny ramp. BUT. Tonight we have already bitterly cold strong winds here in the Western Isles. We have had gusts of 75kph, NW direction. that bodes well for snow in a few days time. Lots of weather preparation already happening with ferries warning of cancellation, as are flights. I suspect we will see our first proper temp blizzards here. Perhaps even thundersnow too. Its been a while since we have had a proper winter arctic blast, albeit short.Ppersonally the warmup for something more juicy I imagine. I will let you know how it turns out up here!

It has been a very long time since we talked about the 510 dam heading south towards the UK. I don't think it will make it though.

That looks like the beginnings of an Easterly. It will be interesting to see what the 0Z brings tomorrow. As the run progresses it is definitely less Atlantic driven. NAO forecast to be positive during our cold spell. This forum is great and a great place to learn about the fast paced world of meteorology. It would be nice to think that all members can feel encouraged to make a contribution. Everyone has to start off from somewhere. People learn best when they are actively learning and processing information in their own way, so they should be encouraged to make comments. And yes like bumbling clumsy bafoons we will make mistakes or not understand something completely but, that should be ok as mistakes is how we all learn.

Im I dont really understand teleconnections that well. But, that ECM GFS 18z was grasping at straws. That I could see!

Hi Andy. In complete agreement with you on this one. This was the outbreak of cold zonality in 1984 I was rumbling on about in previous posts. I remember it really well as a child. It brought blizzards to the North of Scotland. This pattern is remarkably similar. One thing to note the OZ run hasnt sobered up the previous runs. Thats the coldest run yet. No Nly blockings or beasts fromthe easts the cards as Tamara et al have suggested. But, that doesnt mean to say we cannot get mobile cold Nly outbreaks instead. This OZ is I think going to be definitive for January. The patterns are not unrealistic. Unsettled. Colder than average, snow at times in the North. Slightly drier in South. Fringes around coasts even as far south as kent and SW wales will see wintry showers. When fronts collide with colder air a chance for some frontal snow for inland parts. Winter of wild cards indeed!

Thanku for sharing them then. Is that green blob mid atlantic have anything to do with those below average ocean temps in the atlantic that have been well documented? Just seen the ECM run. Defo heading cooler/colder.

Knocker just wondering which site/page you get all your lovely charts from. That ECM anomoly...looks very very cold!

No never too late. Coldest part of winter is Feb... when sea temps are at there coldest.

Yeah. Personally think they will stay NW eith Nly outbreaks till end of Jan. Nly outbreak next week around 13th looks very likely. Shortlived. Will turn more mobile and unsettled again before we get a rinse and repeat. I think peeps gave the GFS a bit of a hard time with the Nly that never happened(around about now). Its seeking patterns out. Think its pretty close to the mark. The ECM at +240hrs just ignore. Its a bit of a long shot.

Yes was seeing this. It has similar synoptics to Jan 2 to 5th 1984. High pressure to south and in atlantic, Slight ridging over greenland and low pressure north atlantic pulling on very cold Polar Maritime air before going Nly. Fascinating to watch. Will post the achives from my computer a little later on.