[Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards]

I really, really hope this is a wobble, whether it's objective or not, we 'need' a snow event or two, some of us won't have seen snow for three years in March, that is a truly depressing thought.

I'm starting to wonder whether the weather is being manipulated in favour of another country? 

[Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards]

3 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

It's not really a breakdown though as we never actually go into the freezer.

All we see is a chilly spell with night frosts and +4/5 by day in the South. Then the low moves in from the South West bringing a snow to rain event for the North while in the south we go back to just boring wet.

The wild swings imply that no model has the right idea yet.....they always struggle with what is a very complex set up. It will me a million times different at day 10 to what is shown now. 

We'll probably have the frosts downgraded over the next few runs too, not a chance of snow for where I live, the weather gods have already decided that. I'm gonna get some tee-shirts printed for Netweather "All I need is frost' written on them 

[Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter]

I hope this is a damn wobble

[Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter]

LMFAO the cold spell is being killed off from both ends as I type. How the hell can all the models practically agree, and then flip 3 days before the first cold air was about to arrive, to bloody south-westerlies. Beggars belief. I'm stained glass windowing really Tuted off this morning.

The way it's going we'll probably only get a frost (probably only a ground frost too) and I have to tell people at work I was wrong.  I really should know better shouldn't I? 

[Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter]

Look, we're going to get a frost!!! Isn't that better than anything else this winter down south???

[Current Cold Spell: snow where, snow when - how much?]

1 hour ago, Darren Bown said:

GFS certainly can't make its mindup on the duration. 00z showing the cold lasting past next weekend.

You cannot pin down a length of a cold spell before it's even started. People have a habit of sitting at the computer whilst snow falls outside the window, looking for the end to the cold spell.

I intend to become a five year old again and run around, make snowmen, and have snowball fights for as long as there is snow on the ground. (if we get some)

It's been such a long wait for some of us, I actually feel quite emotional about it all, I don't know whether to sing or burst into tears?  

[Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter]

1 minute ago, Polar Maritime said:

I don't now about that CH 

you're alright, you have 1000ft on your side 

[Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter]

2 minutes ago, knocker said:

Yes it's odd that it requires a pseudonym but I do worry that if this much awaited cold spell goes down the swanee, not that I think it will,  we will have another Jim Jones episode.

I think we're all so used to it going tits up that we're immune now anyway, especially here in the Midlands. 

It's nice to be part of the buzz of the place though, and I do think we all know deep down that it's going to downgrade to a northerly toppler, which leaves the Midlands dry.

If we're very good, we may even get a frost! 

[Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter]

2 minutes ago, knocker said:

Actually the funny thing is the ones who were writing off winter were the cold rampers not those of a more objective persuasion.

nothing wrong with ramping, we even have our own thread :-p

[Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter]

Just put a status on facebook about this cold spell. I want to see how powerful of a weather god I am, and how I can make this cold spell vanish by just a few words :-D

 

 

[The Midlands - Weather Chat]

So, the cold spell is more or less on. We've just got to see how many imaginative ways the snow will find to avoid our patch 

[Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter]

4 minutes ago, snow freak said:

i agree.  hardly any thunderstorms in our area last summer either and no real heat either considering it was supposedly one of the warmest summers on record.  all the excitement seems to have gone from the british weather unless you like lots of wind and rain that is.

We don't even get lots of wind and rain. We must only get around 1/3 of what goes on everywhere else.

Look at 2010, when everywhere around here got over 1 foot of snow, we got 1/2"!! and you drove 10 miles to Rugby and they had a foot, 10 miles towards Brum, 1 foot.   We seem to have been cursed for years and years.

I seriously do not believe that anywhere in the British isles, has less interesting weather than the lowland Midlands. We haven't even had a proper frost this year!!!! (well, and last)

[Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter]

We only had 2 thunderstorms in 2 years here too!!!

Everything that made me love the weather seems to be gone :-(

[Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter]

22 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

Go for it !

The winters in this country are getting milder, less interesting and wetter. The summers are getting cooler and cooler, with next to no heatwaves or even days over 22'c.

 

I'm either praying for an ice age or global warming, but I just wish something interesting would happen here!!! ><

[Model output discussions pm 31/12/15]

1 minute ago, Greenland1080 said:

I agree but were the size of Florida something Steve M bangs on about in his posts as to why this tiny island constantly misses the bullseye. NE USA has many snow misses just visit weatherwx   to see them moaning.

yes but not for 3 years!! 

[Model output discussions pm 31/12/15]

5 minutes ago, *Sub*Zero* said:

We're not looking at a prolonged cold spell but after December beggars can't be choosers, I'd gladly take the charts on offer after last month even though they aren't perfect... Some colder days with frosty nights and some of us may even see the white stuff falling, we've been waiting over a month for some colder weather and when we're finally looking at it on the NWP it isn't good enough! Lol... 

Perhaps some members had better relocate to somewhere within the Arctic Circle (currently minus 11 in Tromso) with the high expectations they have for winter in the UK, this is the UK, we live in a maritime climate and our prevailing wind is westerly.... So the odds are nearly always stacked against us but that also makes any prolonged cold spell all the more special  

 

 

but 3 years without snow? Even here that's astonishing!

[Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter]

5 hours ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

MOD thread hilarious - once again ludicrous ramping yesterday evening has proven inaccurate.

you have to make sure you're right before ridiculing others :-D

[Model output discussions pm 31/12/15]

How can people be getting so upset about a great amount of shortwaves, that have popped up overnight 7-10 days away?

Do you really think these will be there on the next run?

 

The trend is still the same, cold from the north spilling out of the Arctic at the end of the week.

Things will change, as others have said, this might be the traditional 'pre cold spell wobble' which all the models are liable to, but especially the ECM

[Model output discussions pm 31/12/15]

2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Can someone please tell me what an "in-proper Lexicon " is that Ian mentioned in his tweet? I don't think my phone has enough memory to have another tab opened for Google and I'm clearly thick 

Irt means the wrong term was used, not 'snap' but......spell?

[Model output discussions pm 31/12/15]

14 minutes ago, i luv snow said:

https://t.co/M7akdp5c4g

This update from John Hammond gets particuarly interesting 3 minutres in, explaining about the high pressure in the North Pole displacing the cold air, definitely corresponds with the models!

 

 

He had one heck of a glint in his eyes, he's excited!!

[Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter]

Well, at least when it comes, it'll be amazing and we'll appreciate it more. I can't imagine how boring it must be to have 5 months of snow like Canada every year. everything in black and white, and unchanging. I imagine even 20 foot snowdrifts lose their appeal before long. And anything below minus 20 is just 'more cold'.

[Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter]

4 hours ago, Dancerwithwings said:

I'm one for ramping!!!  and why not after the weather patten we've had to endure so far this winter....So just for you cyclonic happiness

 

If we get this much snow, I will build a bigger castle, just for this forum alone to ogle :-D

[Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter]

5 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

bib... disagree with that.

id sooner have 1 page of reasoned, informed, unbiased and more accurate posts then pages of ramping nonsense.

but then again, im here for weather, not cold only.

Yes, but you have a separate thread for the 'high brow' educated model discussion. Us mere mortals can't keep up with all the technical stuff, and shouldn't be excluded or be made to feel stupid for getting excited about our passion for weather (which we all have, not just for cold).

I'm here for weather too, but mainly cold at this time of the year like 90% of the rest of us 

[Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter]

Well, after a nice night spent dreaming of snowflakes and ice skating on frozen ponds, I awake to see it's all gone a bit ...'meh!'

 

It could be a lot worse, but it's not as good as last night. I think we're on the right path though, just a few more upgrades needed and we could be on to something better than perpetual rain and mild 

[Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter]

Well, surely it's nicer to have a little bit of a buzz about the place regardless of whether it'll come off or not?

Usually I'd spend half the week's nights looking at this forum, but the weather has been so dull and boring of late, I've been elsewhere.  (dull in the Midlands I meant)

If you have a cold spell on the way, you can get as many as 30 pages in the MOD thread per night, and it's bloody good fun!

I really don't think should be putting a dampener on things, this is a weather forum, not a 'full gone conclusion/you can't comment, because it most likely to be wrong' forum.

Chill out, have fun, wildly speculate and don't let anyone bully into silence just because they think they know best (you know who you are) 

 

LET'S HAVE FUN  AGAIN!!