cyclonic happiness
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Posts posted by cyclonic happiness
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30 minutes ago, Frosty. said:
At least it's a southerly tracking jet so there should be some colder incursions and no blowtorch conditions as we had previously.
I don't know if that's any better. If it's gonna be extremely wet and windy, I'd rather it be mild.
This really is turning into Japanese water torture isn't it?
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19 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:
Weather for the week ahead is fine for me - http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/35214244
Short range update on the right don't work though
Not working for me, all my players are up to date and working?? Other podcasts work by the beeb? hmmm?
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13 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:
not strictly true...the UK is on the same latitude as Calgary (London) and Edmonton ( Manchester) which isnt northern Canada
I think he's right. If only the weather spun from east to west, we'd be buried by snow every winter and have lovely hot summers too!
If we all get our hair dryers out, we might be able to slow the earth and spin it anti-clockwise, therefore ending Britain's run of stupidly mild winters!!
Who's with me?
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I've been trying to access the BBC's forecasts over the past few days and it's been offline for at least 3 days now.
Is it the cyber attack or something?
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On 30/12/2015 at 9:14 PM, Daniel* said:
Morocco has the Atlas Mountain range, low lying snow in Morocco is incredibly rare, a few mountains rise to 4,000 meters usually without fail every winter the mountains receive snow, I'm not quite sure how much. Parts of Mexico which had white pixels have at least 1,500m of elevation it helps- very sparsely populated/mountainous areas. As far south as it got I'd say that is very infrequent as I've not seen anything like the sort before.
I've been looking at the snowcover maps for over 10 years now, and have only seen it maybe once or twice before, but never to the extent it has been.
I think we all know that it can snow there on occasion, but it's still noteworthy.
I wonder if there is a similar thread on the American forums, where they get excited about seeing snow in lowland uk? :-D After all, that's a lot rarer than in Morocco, New Mexico, Egypt and probably even Dubai
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6 minutes ago, jethro said:
That's exactly what I mean. There are studies a plenty to support both the view that we'll have colder, snowier winters or that we'll have wetter, windier, milder ones. They can't both be right. Depending upon what you want to believe, there's a science paper to back you up. Taking the melting Arctic....we've had cold, snowy winters that were assigned to being the result of less ice, we've had wet, mild ones, again assigned to less ice. The jet stream.....the same again. Last year and the year before everyone said it was raging across the Atlantic towards us because the USA was so cold, result of climate change, get used to it. This year, it's still raging towards us but the USA have been even more above us in the average temperature stakes....again the result of a warming climate.
I'm all for accepting we live in a warming world, the temperature records prove that, but is it responsible for every possible variation in the weather? We live on an island with the Atlantic one side, the North sea the other side, we have a maritime climate - we never have had cold, snowy winters year after year and we never will.
I'd be fine with global warming if we actually got nicer summers, but they have been awful the past few years.
The weather doesn't seem all that extreme in my locality, just the variation in weather is getting less and less.
We've not even had a damn frost this winter, when was the last time that the middle Midlands, didn't get a frost in December? No doubt the spring will be cold (not bitterly, just craply), and the summer, and the autumn warm and the winter.....warm.
It's the lack of variety that has upset me the most :-(
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I still think we're going to see some good action later in the month. The cold air is gradually and ever so slowly, dropping down from the north.
The patterns of the hemisphere are unusual at the minute, which would make it hard for the models to grasp properly, that's why there's so much flip flopping.
I'm optimistic
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On 30/12/2015 at 9:29 AM, snow freak said:
This winter is really starting to annoy me now. the thought of yet another mild soggy winter fills me with despair. Yes I know there are those who keep saying it is only the beginning of winter but after 2 months of this dismal depressing atlantic weather and with no end in sight, it hardly fills you with hope. I am sure that true to UK weather form we shall have the 'winter' weather come the spring....when we don't want it and it is no good to anyone. Very fed up at the moment to say the least.
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7 hours ago, snow freak said:
This winter is really starting to annoy me now. the thought of yet another mild soggy winter fills me with despair. Yes I know there are those who keep saying it is only the beginning of winter but after 2 months of this dismal depressing atlantic weather and with no end in sight, it hardly fills you with hope. I am sure that true to UK weather form we shall have the 'winter' weather come the spring....when we don't want it and it is no good to anyone. Very fed up at the moment to say the least.
It 'might' be ok , were we to get summer as well, but that has been awol for as long as winter has.
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8 hours ago, Weather-history said:
That's a ridiculous comment because just look at the chart! Comment would make sense if nowhere was below freezing but look at the chart!
I'm looking at the huge thousand mile long and 800 mile wide record anomoly in the Arctic, you know, the unprecedented one? The one that has thrown all the models in a chaotic mess over the next few days?
That America and Asia are bitterly cold goes without saying, but to have the high Arctic at almost 9'c in the middle of winter is nothing short of amazing. They don't even get those temps very often in mid-summer let alone almost January.
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8 hours ago, Severe Siberian icy blast said:
But you no that this is a completely false way of looking at things and it's just another way to throw a toy out of a pram. So if we apply your annalogy then I could say if we can get our winds sourced from Spain then we will have a temp of 4c ? Or an easterly wind will get us well below freezing ? The temp is unusual in the sense the southerly sourced air gets so far north but it's not the fact that's 'somethings very very wrong' , it's just an unusual set up , but very plausible given the set up . Once we loose the euro high and low pressure goes south then we loose the warm temps so far north . Also it's very normal for warm air to move north on the western side of the high with cold air flooding south on the opposite side , it's basic physics.
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It's nowhere near 'normal' to have that much warm (not just mild, actually 'warm') moving up so far north at this time of the year. I mean, they barely get those temperatures in summer let alone mid-winter.
So, ofc it's going to bugger up the models and the hemispheric patterns. We are in uncharted water at this moment in time, nothing is off limits
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3 minutes ago, Interitus said:
Longyearbyen airport on Svalbard at 78°N just last 'night' recorded their highest December temperature on record with 8.1°C (may be higher when confirmed at the end of the recording period) beating the previous high of 7.2°C from 1995. It's also higher than the November and April records of 7.5°C.
So where is all the cold air being displaced to? Or is it just not there to begin with? We're either going to get record breaking cold or war out of this set up, I can't see the models being able to handle such an unprecedented setup.
It's both extremely frustrating and yet fascinating.
(makes me feel better that even the Arctic can't get below freezing
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As someone pointed out on Two, how can we expect cold weather, when even the north pole is above freezing in the middle of the Arctic night, in mid-winter???
Something is very, very broken this year. Are these temperatures unprecedented up there???
(2 metre temps shown)
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2 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:
could be the best it gets this season, saw a bit of snow, few hours before time of this chart, seen 1 frost early on 23rd, but from 24th Nov, nothing
Yep and the warm sector meant that just 20 miles from here it was rain. Luckily we have a bit of hieght here at 400ft , that really helped.
I can't have really come to this...can it?
We don't even get northerly topplers like we did in the last decade either. They were all the rage on netweather for quite a few years.
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The worst thing is though that, even in the mildest winters, we always got one or two days of snow and frosts, but now it's just nothingness. We don't even get much rain or wind.
Also we don't get heavy showers like we used to in spring, you know, the ones you can see coming for miles in lovely clear air. With black bottoms and huge convective billowing cumulonimbus clouds.
Something really has gone seriously wrong with the weather :-(
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Really has been horrendous the past 2 years here in the Midlands. Last winter I only got 3 air frosts, and this winter so far zero.
It's really going to be a pee take if the only snow we see this 'winter' was in autumn.
I really do stick by my statement that 'climate change has just robbed our weather of variety' It's just one long boring autumn from one end of the year to the next.
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22 minutes ago, Daniel* said:
Crazy weather out there I've never seen the white pixels get that far south into Mexico before, have you?
Nope, I've never seen it that far south, it's beyond a p**s take!
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Well, would you look at the state of the Americas!! Snow over the entirety of New Mexico, and into Mexico proper, Nevada, Texas, even Arizona, have more snow than Europe!! ><
So El Nino just means that the north is warm and the south is cold...............AGAIN!
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And the whole of New Mexico too!! WTF nature, sort yourself out!!!
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I've never seen so much snowfall as far south into Mexico as today's update.
I'm starting to think that the nearer you are to the tropics, the more likely you are to see snow!
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11 minutes ago, Costa Del Fal said:
I don't mean to be off topic here but rather make a brief albeit important point.
Whilst the start of January is subject to much more change, not long ago it was said the models are so predictable now and that much fun has been taken out of model watching compared to a few years ago.
Well just a few days ago who would have thought we would be looking at a shot of cold weather (not saying guranteed at all) and snow? To some, the whole long wave pattern was secured until mid Jan it seemed. How quick things can change and a vital point to always remember. Anything is always possible pretty much. It's always important to make an holistic assessment of the situation and forecast, by which I mean always take consideration of both the tropospheric and stratospheric forecasts, in particular good to see and remember how the stratosphere is playing out longer term. I certainly recommend all members take a chance to learn about the stratosphere of they can.
In summary, it seems like we have found the fun (and stress!!!) in model watching again!
Oh yeah, that was me. I was upset because nothing was even showing that was remotely interesting in FI or anywhere. Well....................... now I have my interest back :-D
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43 minutes ago, Frosty. said:
It's a recurring nightmare for folk in the northwest of the UK and it makes our hunt for cold pale into insignificance, our thoughts are with them.
It's very strange how all the rainfall in the UK seems to be concentrated on North Wales and Cumbria, have you seen the MET office rainfall anamoly chart, it's very dry most everywhere else, but the northwest is being drowned (no, not Kanye and Kim's kid).
Why is all the moisture so stuck in that rut? It's a tiny area on a global, and even a European scale?
I know the geological reasons for it, but it's just very strange that it's so intense in such a small area and for such a long period of time.
We can only hope for a change to drier and colder weather (hopefully, what's being shown in FI) although you can bet that it'll be blizzards that would bury the poor folk of Cumbria then :-(
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Seems my words are magic!
I defy the GFS to to show more of its teasing. I defy you to get within 24hrs before dropping the 'bomb' on us.
I defy you!!!!
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25 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:
Which is precisely why I willn't be getting excited until something actually happens.
Did you really say "willn't"?
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Model output discussions pm 31/12/15
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Even a toppler would be welcome to most folk, it's absolutely horrendous that we can't even get a frost, let alone snow.
At least the models are showing a bit of snow in FI, that was missing a couple of months ago.