cyclonic happiness
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Posts posted by cyclonic happiness
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Still. put your location up STD, it does help in here
regards
BFTP
"STD"? *guffaws*
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Well Ian Fergusons update on the model threat seems very bullish about a mild winter ahead. Don't think I've ever seen Ian so confident think they must have a lot of faith in the glosea model this year. Think this winter could be a record breaking but not for cold and snow. That if I'm reading his comments correctly.
3 winters in a row without snow! I can't even........... ><
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Really windy (for around here) reminds me of 2013/14 winter (yuck) where it was like this for weeks on end!
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Seems to have been a setback with the snow over western Russia today. Never mind, plenty of time ay? :-)
http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_asiaeurope.gif
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i hope we never go back to the days of chasing northerly topplers. That was so depressing at the start of the 2000s.
At least we have a whole different set up to the last couple of years, or will it go for the hat track of s**te winters?
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Yes it sure is but I like to try and be realistic with what's actually being shown in the model outputs, I like a good ramp but more often than not ramping FI la la land charts proves fruitless and ends in bitter disappointment.. Hopefully the current eye candy emerging from the GFS gathers some momentum and at the same time it also gets some back up from other models, until then I remain overly cautious...
Seriously, the bottom has fallen out of my faith in winter already. I'm gonna celebrate like it's 1999 when the snow falls and settles. I hope this board is ready?
Also you'll have a very busy Midlands thread too, seeing as they were mostly on the snowless boat that I've been on :-p
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Have you got any charts you can post? I've had a look at the ensembles and yes there is a downward trend in temps later on, I wouldn't call them very cold?
This is a ramping thread, and after 2 years of no snow, everything looks like 2010 :-P
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At long last some cold weather, and not just cold , very cold, has been spotted in the bowels of FI this morning.
And with the polar vortex shredded and moving over toward Siberia, it looks like another 2009/10 cold spell.
But it's only one run!!
More runs needed please.... :-)
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Well, on a slightly more cheerful note, I've noticed over the past 30 years, that periods of long standing high pressure dominance, seem to followed by cold spells. Especially periods of anti-cyclonic gloom.
So, let's hope this sticks around until December, and then it can beggar off northeast and give us the weather we deserve:-)
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Been a bit yucky today. Mild and rain is never nice but mild and sun through Autumn (and even winter, although I know it's not prefered in this corner of the internet!) always gives a pleasant feel. So hopefully some of that to come. Not too fussed about breaking records this time of year, just good to get something a little unusual going on.
Looks like the temperatures might give us something to discuss as we enter November. First little piece of what will lead up to yet another winter on this forum!
Well, I'd rather it stayed warm until mid December, and then for us to drop into a cold and snowy spell. We've had the worst winters for snow ever in the past couple of years, god owes us big time!
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Oh dear, you have much to learn. lol.
I seriously wouldnt take a blind bit of notice of them even though you say not seriously. The default winter will always alternate between something colder and milder. No surprise to see those 6 months forecasts do that. But as we are struggling to predict a week away in any time of the year, you have little hope with Metcheck's 6 motnhs forecast.
when times get hard, Metcheck it like the drug of choice. You know it's showing you paradise, but it just leads you on to more addiction and very little that's good :-D
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Better progress getting snow south of 60N.
Seems to know the boundary of Europe though :-(
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Word of warning.. We had strong blocking over and east in Nov 11.. We never got anywhere untuk early Feb.
you need one more post for 15k!!!
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BTW, why was the storm travelling in the direction it was? Doesn't they usually come in east to west at that latitude?
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Is the precipitation going to be getting as far north as California? At least it might do a bit of good, what with the drought there?
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Last winter had plenty of decent looking synoptics that time and again failed to deliver. Every time it tried to snow it lasted a few hours before turning back to rain, without any clear warm sectors being present. Often snow turned to rain from the North, as though we were in Argentina or somewhere. Suffice to say the Peak District which is a law unto itself got snow a lot of the time. In a way it was even more frustrating than 2013-14, which wasn't marginal at all. There was also the lack of proper frost, it has just seemed incapable of dropping at night since 2013, even when it is clear.
Unmodified polar maritime is junk 80% of the time; sleet, cold rain and 3C day and night. It always seems to come with ridiculous lapse rates too, above 300m it snows and snows while even sub-5 uppers can't give temps below 0C lower down. If there is a Greeny high or a flow straight from the Arctic, then we are talking. A lot of "polar maritime" just seems to come off the sea by Iceland, with no entrenched cold air, it might as well be Azores stuff.
I think that if we have another snowless year here, i'm gonna consider another hobby. even during the horrible period on the late 80s we never went 3 years without snow
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You mean the West Midlands didn't have any covering at all in 2013-2014 while not too far away, in Derbyshire, there were scenes like these?
edit: ignore me. This was obviously 2012-2013. 2013-2014 was of course snowless for low altitudes but I didn't spend any of 2014-2015 in England. I'm surprised the past winter was completely snowless.
He's right, we had one snowfall last winter which stuck for around 3 hours, the winter before's snowfall didn't even settle.
It's been absolute hell for us snow lovers here in the Midlands ,well, this part :-(
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It kind of depends on how you interpret it. If you ask me, a "seasonable" feeling winter in the UK is a cold winter. Maybe something a bit like this:
It's a shame really, we missed out big time in that winter in this part of the country, we only got 1/2 inch of snow whilst even 10 miles away they had a foot in all directions.
We did much better in 2013 though :-)
I still think we're making up for that epic snowfall in december 1990!
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you could of course have zero hours either falling or lying, how would that feel?
I wouldn't be surprised. I'd just sigh and accept it, then go back to watching videos of past blizzards on Youtube :-D
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Well, at least it would have to go a very long way to have to be worse than the last 2 years.
I mean, we had 6 hours of snow on the ground in the last 2 years here.
So this year will be epic by those standards!
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We've been done to 1'c a few nights here last week, never got below that though, but not far off!
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Metcheck are garbage, in all honesty. I'd wait until a more reliable weather ganecy makes a long-range forecast.
i remember Metcheck from years ago, when it used to forecast heavy snow up to 2 weeks in advance, but it never nearer to the the present time-frame.
I only use it now to fool myself into thinking it's going to snow :-D
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Was sat watching the news when it was interrupted to bring live coverage of NASA press conference. Bit disappointed really, was expecting video of little green men with pointy fingers and conical heads.
No, they left and came to earth millions of years ago :-p
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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-34379284
Earth is not the center of the universe, it’s not flat, and it’s looking very likely that the next major, paradigm-shifting revelation will be the fact that we are not alone in the universe.
Last years story I couldn`t resist quoting that bit.
Also means there will be a huge space race to get people living up there. This is such an important discovery! up there with the wheel :-)
The Midlands - Weather Chat
in Regional
Posted
Looks like the cold air later next week will give a classic wishbone effect for the Midlands, ie; we stay bone dry even though we have minus 8 uppers at one point.
I just hope there are a couple of polar lows chucked in. I'm sure northerlies are a lot drier than they used to be??