Richie V

C,S... That always makes me smile, as a zonal hunter I face exsactly the same stresses you blocking types do. I just want that russian high to either do one or sink.

Low, 945 mb sat over south scotland with flattened high1036mb over central france will suit me fine xmas day, turkey by candlelight and a westerly severe gale!

Good eve mr murr, infuriating fo all except me it seems, (i'm starting to feel a wierdo wanting zonality round here!) I strongly dissagree with comments in the main model thread like "the atlantic is weakening" the 18 z has lower pressures than yesterdays 06z and low cores are braught nearer to our shores on 18 z than todays 12s Just my tuppence worth! Ric

What I find cool in daylight during heavy sleet precip, if you look up you can generally see far enough to see the fuzz of the snow at 850, 900 mb level. Looks like the fuzz on an untuned crt tv. This can often be seen even if almost all rain at the surface.

Well after the huge let down which was the 06z, lets hope the twelve delivers another huge lump of dissapointment for coldies. Suits me good as im a zonal type anyway. News 24 weather was a wet dream for me eariler as they now seem keen on the idea of a dartboard vortex with a super powerful shortwave placed over the southern uplands come weeks end.

120 hrs fax.... Pressure needs to be lower in the med or this will end in tears for coldies.

Please, I aint trolling but I'm not convinced that any of this progged northern blocking is strong enough given the current situation. It pains me to say but I just think there's too much energy up north for any such strong 500hpa heights to take hold. This is demonstrated beautifully in the lower rez portion of the gfs 18. Gfs aint the best but it knows the game all too well regarding those pest from the west shortwaves. If I were to personally lay my neck on the line I'd strongly plump we're headed for quite a prolonged stretch of very cold NW - SE tilted zonality so that is hardly a bartlett scenario, could be way worse folks. Just my thaughts after 13 hard winters chasing the perfect beasterly! Ric. Edit my last post... I ment higher rez portion of gfs.

More rain now, looks like we'll be both cracking open the bean bags

Peaked at 3.4c here eariler now down to 1.7c and falling. EDIT; Yikes rain!

Where in the Tarn u snowflake88? Here in Darton, few small flakes blowing around in the wind. Looking out west toward the pennines, they are slowly dissapearing under white precip! should'nt be long now.

Good lord! So we're now all clutching at modelling data T 500 Hrs out. ECM or not.... oh brother! Yeh, It's the GFS but..... Until it stops showing +/- 40Hpa swings for any given location 220 - 300+ hrs out run to run then I'm sticking with the seaweed and Bill Farkin's Grebes! Looks like quite a mobile pattern in the short / medium term.

Well, the way I see the 18Z, = a total mess I mean, come on guys.... SERIOUSLY the differences between 18Z and todays 12Z are quite astonishing. FI = 96 hrs tonight. In fact, As I said last winter (and some of you will remember) do NOT be surprised to see crazy dartboard lows featuring in the output from the start of next week. For those of you that were quick to say i was of my rocker mabe this will refresh your memory! Lucky it failed eh?

Good evening Mr Murr, I trust you are well? I for one am underwhelmed by what is been shown on tonights 18Z and can assure you I won't be loosing my wad over it. Post T200 hrs every damn winter for the past six years do we see this FI Prosac cold trip. It took me two years of pain to learn but hey... I made It. Lets see the GFS get a handle on Mondays low first shall we! If we get the 200Hrs+ drivel braught up to T 120 - T 90 Hrs then I'll start to sit up. Personally, I'm suffering full on severe gale withdraw symptoms. Please make it stop.... Kill me now....

Nice one..... savour every moment of it!

Well chris, you may get more, easing round slightly south of west on my horizon (south of you) theres a new light show crackling away. this also looks at great distance so may be part of the same system your under.

Im not bloody surprised!!

Jeezus, that is no less than a 38,000 ft storm head MINIMUM.

I'm seeing lightning leaving the back exit of the anvil firing into clear sky, this is a real treat guys.

Tell you what fella.... I don't know how high those cloud tops are towering but I'm i Barnsley in south yorkshire and looking west theres a truley massive anvil out west producing a fabilous light show. IM OVER 100 MILES AWAY....... the lightning in the twighlight is truley fantastic.

Associated with that wakefield tornado, here in barnsley north we managed 17mm rain in just a few mins.

Just been catching up with the thread, Let me tell you It's been a crazy 7 days here in S75. No fewer than 4 seperate storms enbedded in fri / 6th's deluge and thunder observed every day including today since then. 149.3 mm rain since 00:00 / 6th july to now

System winding up loverly now. http://www.yr.no/satellitt/europa_animasjon.html

Don't know about you lot but rather to my surprise I'm on my hottest day of the year. Just hit 27.1C, very muggy, strong mid level convection now, looking rather dark to my SSW.

Outside the basin!!! Check this out http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/ Those 2 wamming great uguly holes (one to the north west of greenland and the other NE of Alaska near the basin edge) to me is rather worrying. Surely this screams Very thin Ice only left now and would suggest the whole blummin pack is now weak as FCUK. Just my thaughts, I'm no expert.... I promise!

Wind turned almost 180 deg from E to WNW large cumuls in the last half hr.