Richie V

I'm still on 4.1 c here at 330 ft, looking bleak unless im missing something here.

Hold your wad guys, my pilot freind Joel is reporting plus 1.9 c 850's over skipton with intermittent rain right up to 15,900ft this eve. Something needs to alter fast.

Well things here need to improve drastically if it is to snow. Current temp 5.7c, dew 5.0c

and your point is???? He's probily still more accurate than the GFS!

I want some of that paint thinner he's been sniffing!.... In all seriousness though, it pains me to say as a zonal loving freak, looks odds on now we're starring down the barrel of lashings of blocked snowmaggedon'ness (is that a word!).

Lol@ timmytour, ive had a good long break from veiwing any run of any model. Since my last veiwing things certainly look far less sweet if your a coldie, not that I thaught they were in the first place, it seems we have our old freind the good ol shortwave back on the radar! People need to listen to john holmes on here and learn the 500 anomoly charts. Mabe then there will be less petty tantrums on here when things stop going bobby dazzler! ........ Snow hurricane, that was a joke....right? Ric

I'm taking a break from model watching, it is easy to get clouded in and not actually see what the data is saying. No more charts for me til 18z tommorow. Others might be wise to do the same.

GFS is very stable in general up to 96 hrs, a little longer in stormy situations. I can bet my life if it started to show a 1050 mb scandi high at 180 hrs people in here would suddenly say it is perfoming better than ECM and the meto are wrong! The moment gfs drops the 1050 scandi high at 120 hrs suddenly the gfs is a joke dispite the ECM dropping the idea more slowly than gfs later on which it often does.

no flies to pick there lolRob do us fine yorkshire folk a favour, shove your location under your avatar, thanks fella.

a little harsh don't you think. At least use a smiley if you ARE joking!

Here in Tarn, 1.6c...0.5dp

Some amazing obs this eve, just had an insane hail shower pass through. As the cell approached pressure rose 4.2mb in forty seconds, gust of 61.9mph in the hail. On shower exit pressure drop of 4.7mb in 5 mins. Brrrilllliant!

Bit of an odd one, im running just over 3 mb less than xc weather gfs 06z forecast for barnsley. It is usually bang on. Getting very windy also, last hour, mean 26.8mph, gust 46.9mph.

Lol, GFS is an utter pigs breakfast after t +111

Thats one hell of a bold post, hope you are right, there are lurkers from the daily express a d daily mail in here you know. Cant wait to see the express take on this on sunday... "violent artic hurricane to cripple uk" i'm certainly not dbouting your skills but I sure hope your on the money with this one!!!!I respect you massively dude, best of luck. You know, Ian McCaskill once said it will be breezy up the channel!!! Ric

Dont get me wrong guys, I love the cold and snow BUT I like stormy zonality much more. You've got the early ninetys to thank for that. I feel a black sheep every time I enter or post in the model output discussion thread. It has got to the point where I feel a little nervous about posting my thaughts on the output amongst those just seeking greenland heights and a 1963 winter. Theres one thing for sure though, when im seen in the main model output discussion thread there is more chance of something wild n wet than a raging scandi easterly. Respect to you all. Ric

At least it will be mild and windy ..... Now where did I put my coat!

Gibbs, you are doing fine pal, really enjoy reading your analysis on the outputs. Keeps it real to the outlook with a no BS approach.

I see any last shread of common sense in here has drained away this evening along with the greenland height rises! Looking at the NH Jet profiles today I expect nothing less than the pattern been flattened out a bit at a time, run on run in the next 3 to 5 days. Ric

Hi There snow, im restricted to android at the mo so am struggling with that. However, all you need to do is go to netweathers datacentre and spend forty mins going through the outputs, do some side by side comps, not a massive divergence out to 120 hrs tonight. After you have done this, make a forecast for next week, write it down and ask yourself, is it realistic and will it varify.

he says using the current output there is little chance of a deep freeze, Gibby also doesnt wear rose tinted specticles or contacts... Simples!

Brilliant as ever Gibby. I think some members need to take stock and read you in summary part over and over, this is true of some of the more expierienced also. Lots of ferreting around for the next ice age in mid FI going on today!

What my eyes see based on the 12 z. If you ignore the western atlantic and eastern euro it is basically a very flat w to nw pattern, then a bit of a northerly attempt, then broadly flat again. From a cold prespective... This does'nt fill me with hope or excitement although a big bonus for me is, it will often be very windy!

it was I that saw and reported it to bbc and posted it in the space section of the forum. Paul hudson on look north mentioned it also at 22:35

My bad with the title, it was tonight 30 th lol.