Richie V

Red noses and floppy shoes aside, those living round cheshire, notts, derby, south yorks and lincs need to be on alert if this thing exits the humber. On the BBC n24 update the isobars were so close together over these regions it was hard to see the spacing...... BBC look north now saying be on guard. ....... Reports of flash flooding in Todmorden this eve!

Deepness is key here, faster deepening and a lower central pressure of just 6 to 10mb would have a prefound impact on track pulling the system on a more northerly track. The meto alternative "moderate" outcome should not be ignored. As for comparing to the oct 2000 storm, I recorded a min pressure of 949.4 mb as the core passed overhead. I'll never forget that night. I had not seen any forecast so I did'nt have a clue what was going on. Around midnight I rember I was on the M18 near Doncaster driving back to Anston, Sheffield after visiting an ex. Controlling the reno clio in very heavy rain and an easterly gale was difficult. I got home around 1 am pressure was 978 mb. I got a cuppa and had a fag, when I checked again 15 mins later it was 971 mb. It's at this point I realised something was going on. Around 3:30 am the clouds were extremley low and moving east to west like a vcr on play and ff at the same time, pressure down to 956 mb. At 4:20 am pressure went sub 950 mb, easterly wind died and rain stopped, clouds were now screaming in above west to east, this was creepy with it been flat calm on the ground. 4:35 am, I opened the back door for another smoke, flat calm still. A min or two into the smoke I felt a wierd pressure sensation on my ears, like the eardrums were been pushed inward making sounds quiet. I pinched my nose, shut my mouth and popped them. All sound was normal again. Less than 1 min, it was happening again, the pushed in feeling in the ears. When I popped them again thats when me as a grown man became terrified. All over to my west there was an awful deep growling distant rumble. This very slowly at first got louder, then more quickly. Then I could hear alarms going off everywhere to my west, things smashing. At this point there was a huge pull of air from the east that literally pulled me off the doorstep then utter hell broke out from the west, a gust of 96.8 mph flattened more than half the trees in the orchard behind the house in an instant. 2 mins prior was calm.

Welcome and definately an intereasting read there. Brave of you to put your neck on the line. 20 years of atlantic observation myself and I have to say, not too far off the mark I recon. Just remember, the weather does not play by our forecast rules and is good at slamming our forecasts back in our faces. Ric

wowsers, thats almost as fast as a Bugatti Varon over NI

Oh frosty, you have no idea mate, hardcore atlantic porn from the GFS this eve. Bring it. I'm quite stunned by just how flat the nh pattern is at times. A very long abscense since we last saw it like that.

My waffle on this thread im sure is seen as weak cus I never back up my posts with charts. But when I threaten that the atlantic onslaught is coming i'm greeted with comments like "sorry to burst your bubble" such and such. For the few who saw my warnings of this as un substantiated un-backed up nonsense, whos laughing now!?.... Hows that for an off topic self ego stroaking post Anyone seen my coat?

Listen up coldies.... It's our turn now. Here barty barty! Lol 4 years plus since a substantial gale, tonights gfs has essence of jan 93 about it. Oh the memories.

C10...... Correct me if i'm wrong but that ens mean and op screams atlantic influence to me does it not? Height anoms over euro and the vast majority of NH heights on the Siberian and Alaskan side of the world. An open invite for raging zonal conditions if this holds true.

Well, looking increasingly like i'll get my atlantic fix now. With a distinct lack of atlantic activity in the past 4 or so years, surely we're due something mental! BRING THE GALES I say, save all that blocking, prozac and razor blades for nearer xmas. After all, you get much deeper cold pooling in dec anyway. Ric

he aint far off the money in my opinion my dear boy. Watch for our ferind the Canadian vortex.

Sun blown up lolol?

Street lighting reflecting off the low muck? Actually, I bet since there is heavy rain to the south of you, It's the glow from the transformer that powers the sheffield storm shield. Yikes, just looked outside, glowing here too, what is that??

Sorry steve, my bad. I should have said watch out for the models to get a handle on the atlantic return in 6 plus days, not the actual return.

Well, It's now day six. At the risk of looking like an arogant assss off, theres almost cross model agreement on a fairly substantial atlantic onslaught. Just six or seven days back this thread was buzzing with the prospect of endless high pressure and clam warm second half of October. I think It's time to put my backside on the line and get together my own white paper on my findings of predicting the atlantic autumn / winter onslaught patterns lolol. My problem is I don't take ridicule very well so I've kept quiet for a long time about my findings over the last 20 or so years. Please, this is not an (I told you so post) my passion for this weather type over the years (decades) has driven me to the ability to see it coming quite a way out. Peace all, I'll start a thread in the appropiate place on this soon. Ric

Wow, even more dtama tonight. I remain more stubborn than a stuck record..... Watch out for the atlantic power between days 6 - 9! It's coming. Just to boot, bbc weather warned of some quite strong winds for a time late mon and into tues next week.

Yes cap shortwave, as I thaught, prehaps the gfs has begun the high flattening i've been barking about?! Watch and learn lololol

Not very technical I know but I still stand by what I said this morning. my better judgement says the high will get flattened fairly quick in the next 12 runs or so (gfs) Well looking at the wild differences just this eve in outputs my feeling on this is as good as any I suppose. If it happens, just call it years of expierience with this setup. Ric

Ramp: to greatley exaggerate the position of a scandi high at T+360 hrs

Hi frosty, looking at those Fax charts you've put up, there seems the very real risk of any HP's been flattened out south and eastward by the Lp strings in central and northwest Atlantic. I have seen this countless times in late autmn, early winters past it hurts! A few suprises in 5 days or so as northern lattitudes continue to cool prehaps? Maybe just a hunch but likewise, I have seen it too many times before. Those faxes made me sit up and take notice! Ric

They are just useless tubes of meat.

Me n my junior scool buddy were terrible eivl little blighters at school. If we caught one in class the trick was.... If you gently removed all the legs then released them, they were incapable of landing thus causing havoc to the girls for the duration of the lesson. I don't do things like that now, ive grown up a touch since then.... I think!

Hit 38.9 mph as the cold front cleared earlier. A max of just 16.4 mph here in barnsley in the last hour. I'm suspecting it will increase again soon though.

A tad off topic but, what happened to Gibby? Why dose'nt he post in here now? Ric

To pester the living daylights out of my trees! Cabbage whites seem to be easing in numbers now thank god

What a car crash the last few pages of this thread is. Another record has been also broken this week... The self scented tamerity record is the highest for 5 years in here. I'm just waiting for someone to ask me to back up my post with data WE HAVE NEW EXTENT RECORDS IN ANTARTICA.... END OF. DON'T MAKE ME GET THE HOSE! Just venting, nothing personal