Snowyowl9

Doubt it would be gale force but if that happened you can call that proper blizzards although even if the winds are strong I`d still class it as blizzards with drifting snow. Loving the look of the fax charts this morning. that front is just stalled over us reminds me of years ago in similar set-ups. http://85.214.49.20/pics/brack0.gif http://85.214.49.20/pics/brack0a.gif 6 inches from that but the wind will drop off we`ll see what happens.

I`m sticking with the meto runs and the GFS 12z run,it`s only 36hrs away now or less than that. This run`s even better takes the snow into France :lol: but much better in the long term from GEM. http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rgem481.gif

It got down to -3.5c last night coldest since March 3rd also had a tiny sprinkling of snow as I saw a few small flakes falling at 6.00a.m. it`s gonna be a cold one tonight if you like it`s already -3.3c http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rtavn1217.png Tomorrow looks calm here with some snow showers NE coasts and some possible snow in the SW... the east wind will be getting stronger later further south west,there was a light easterly here today too http://85.214.49.20/pics/brack0.gif

Going to last March 12th it was a totally different set-up but we had 4 inches of snow as the winds started SE then turned to the S/SE and they were strong too and was absolutely bitterly cold on this day as the temp was 1.3c then it turned to freezing drizzle despite the temp above freezing drifting snow before the light drizzle come which happened in the 80s too sometimes. This day was still bitter at 2.1c max with some hail rain/snow mix and still drifting at times in strong S/SE winds. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/2006/...00120060312.png http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/2006/...00220060312.png Then something I`ve only seen once before was it turned to freezing rain and it was heavy I was out in it later and my coat was freezing and the temp was getting lower the trees were creaking as you could here the ice on them as the wind was still strong it was getting worrying everything was ice and crunchy under foot until it stopped this night and got milder. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/2006/...00120060313.png http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/2006/...00220060313.png All in all a major event This looks a better event/s to me up there with 1996 anyway http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/brack1a.gif The way it`s going it may track a little further south,if not you`ll have to come too the welsh hills too see some snow

Never underestimate the east or SE winds to me it has much more of a bite to it than a NE. If this came off there could be some fun and games surface winds would be east/SE. http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rtavn901.png

An upgrade on yesterdays 12z for the snow event I see. http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rtavn421.png http://www2.wetter3.de/Animation_12_UTC/48_30.gif

hi Karl. Yes very exciting stuff this model watching is... the 6z run is a nice run. http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rtavn1501.png http://85.214.49.20/pics/brack1a.gif As you say we could get alot of snow from this and with those east winds aswell plenty of drifting for the hills It`s still nailbiting stuff though what`ll happen exactly. It`s much colder today which is a great start.

Wow they certainly are well worth the wait.

http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rtavn601.png http://85.214.49.20/pics/brack2.gif This is the best run of the day from GFS. http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rtavn1201.png http://85.214.49.20/pics/Recm1201.gif http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rukm1201.gif Take your pick.

It got down to -1.8c last night before then the cloud came over and lifted the temps when I looked this morning it was 2c and everything thawed. But when I went down to town this morning it was white over trees too,it seems up on a hill the temps are not falling that low at all so far different to last winter. The next few days should change that.

Nice to see it below freezing at -0.5c it should get much lower tonight,although last night got colder than expected after despite the cloudcover coming over. http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rtavn1217.png

So does that mean it`s bringing the low too far north Nick?

That does indeed show alot of snowfall on that chart much like last march showed on those snowcharts before the event. That looks perfect,height asl will help alot in this situation too. All of which looks very uncertain indeed.

Though I was seeing things for a minute. I`ll say Chart of the year for this though

http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rtavn541.png It is certainly an upgrade in the short term with the wind more easterly which is what we want to see,it`s looks more like feb 1996 today again,and I`m not looking no further than this either. http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rtavn661.png

Too see such uncertainty in such a short timescale before,we`ve got to go back to the 70s/80s for this. Take one day at a time this week I think. Tomorrow Scotland looks like seeing some snow anyway http://85.214.49.20/pics/brack0a.gif

The first runs I looked at now was the ECM and I was chuffed to bits then I saw the fax charts which are stunning Left the GFS to last thinking it would be the same but it does this sort of thing at this range I`ve noticed recently only to uprade at the last minute. I`m going by the fax charts anyway now it`s still going to be a battleground and last minute changes will happen 24 hours out. FI is 3 days now. http://85.214.49.20/pics/brack3.gif http://www2.wetter3.de/Animation_00_UTC/84_30.gif

Another fantastic run. http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rtavn961.png http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rtavn964.png http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rtavn1261.png http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rtavn12617.png

Agree with the pit it`s been another mild day here sunny at 8.7c it is plumeting now but it`s still 1.9c and when cloudcover comes later I don`t think I`ll see an air frost tonight might do. Lets get this cold front through to bring some cleaner/fresher/colder air. http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/brack0.gif http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rmgfs302.gif

I think reliable timeframe only goes this far at the moment though. http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rtavn661.png Couldn`t agree more!

It`s been along while coming since we`ve seen charts like these in the reliable timeframe if you can call it that I agree with what a few are saying to get a good few inches of snow firstly which use to happen then get the cold spell afterwards is the perfect scenario but the way this winter has been I`ll take this run http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rtavn1321.png http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rtavn1381.png UKMO is out and looking very interesting just hope the ECM is good tonight,it was last night. http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rukm1201.gif

Its looking more like feb 1978 with each run. One thing for sure if this run come off which is most definately going to change is it`s gonna be bitterly cold

I agree it`s certainly an alert the first chart I looked at on this run wow!!!!!!!!!!!! http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rtavn1021.png

I don`t remember that occasion the snow never made it this far north perhaps. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119780219.gif It won`t be nothing like feb 1978 now feb 1996 looks more likely though and the upper air wasn`t that low either it snowed here anyway,the last battleground I saw before last March,the last major snowfall I saw in feb though with 8 inches on that day http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119960206.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00219960206.gif This looks even better than that with a better angle of approach and colder upper air temps. http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rtavn1081.png http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rtavn1082.png

The 6z run ends in a northern blocking... 1986 feb springs to mind