Mark Bayley
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Posts posted by Mark Bayley
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Still evidence of a dusting in NW London. Not expecting more than a cm or two tomorrow night. As noted by others, these events always trend much further south. Was not expecting by this much though!
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Still evidence of a dusting here. Wrt Thursday, most models now keep the heaviest precipitation to the south and west of NW London, albeit still a few cms. At least it's more likely to now stick around a bit longer rather than melt Friday morning!
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12 minutes ago, kold weather said:
That would be more or less ridiculous shift!
To be honest I think we have seen the end of thr southerly shifts, I can't see any more reasons to shift it southwards, especially now the models have keyed into the elongation of the front, and I think GFSp may have gone to the extreme on this run (it looks like some of the southerly solutions from the ECM ensembles. I suspect there maybe a slight shift back north, but we will see! I'd rather be to the north of the front than the south for obvious reasons! Also verbatim, but the I'd be more or less in the sweet spot IF the GFSp is correct.
Agreed. Fascinating model watching though
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5 minutes ago, kold weather said:
Crazy south change on the GFSp, indeed verbatim this is more of a SOUTH of m4 event on the GFSp 18z.
My gut tells me this may have gone a little too far south this time, especially given the other models aren't quite as far south...yet!
Watch it end up in the channel
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5 minutes ago, kold weather said:
ARPEGE and ICON both hint at more marginality close to the coast than was forecasted earlier today, though both ultimately still turn it to snow. Could do with both of those just being a couple of hours later IMBY, but both are good runs, though ICON has more snow.
Now the GFS has finally fallen inline, the 18z WRF now also showing a decent snow event down here as well.
Interestingly the GFS P fails to progress the front past the southern midlands, with a longer period of snow for us.
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1 minute ago, Wimbledon88 said:
Sod all to report in London, sleety mix.
UHI done for us this time.
Indeed, although we seem to have done a little better in NW London with a temporary covering
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Still light snow, albeit more sleety now. The dusting is starting to melt, don't expect any traces tomorrow.
Wrt Thursday, looking good for 2-5cm based on ICON and GFS
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Snow should clear here within the hour, and should leave a decent dusting on the cars and grass. Think i'll struggle to make more than a cm on the car, but we'll see.
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Now settling on the grass and bins. Very odd given everyone is reporting rain. Temp 0.8c and dew of 0c (Harrow)
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We have settling snow!!
Well, on the car..
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Heavy rain, temp 3.9c and dew of 3c. Not expecting snow any time soon!
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Just now, kold weather said:
Its uncanny how similarly this is evolving like the Jan 2013 event/. Orginally the models had a N event with the main snow from the Midlands northwards/ Then the models shifted the low and elongated it to the point where it became a southern and Midlands event, with Wales jackpot.
Indeed - as you know I've been on this forum for over 10 years (nearly all of them in the north Midlands). I have never known lows / precipitation trend north in these situations. Many times the models show decent snow events for it to shift south (places like Peterborough being the sweet spots), or even missing the UK entirely!
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Perhaps i was too pessimistic earlier. Taking NW London, an all snow event on the ICON 12z, and dare i suggest all snow on the 12z GFS, perhaps turning sleety on the back edge (even fthose south of the M4 get a decent period of snow). I still think the sweet spot will be in the Midlands, although the trend is our friend wrt to an all snow event across most of the SE (away from the coasts)
For Thursday*
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For Thursday ICON gives 4-6 hours of snow across most of the SE, bar closer to the coast and further west (precipitation rate helps). Midlands does best.
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I too am not getting my hopes up. Living in zone 4 (Harrow) also seems to impact snow chances (UHI). Current prediction for is rain followed by snow tomorrow night leading to a cm or two Wednesday morning. This melting by afternoon. For Thursday moderate to heavy leading edge snow. Soon turning to rain washing away any deposits. Am hopefully proved wrong! Would like to be in central and Southern Midlands.
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Dusting of snow in Harrow. Pleasant surprise in a so far disappointing winter.
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30 minutes ago, Nick L said:
...a what?
You see its it's even effecting my grammar.
The respite looks a couple of days now. Then a return to something much warmer in the middle of week. The never ending summer continues!
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Given how awful tonight is we could certainly do with a mini rest bite!
SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018
in Regional
Posted · Edited by Mark Bayley
I'll take that - a couple of cm's of snow (i think its overdoing the totals). Really a case of radar watching now.