Mark Bayley
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Posts posted by Mark Bayley
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9 minutes ago, bluearmy said:
It’s moderate snowfall .....enough intensity to actually just about cover a wet windscreen !
Thanks, exciting.. We've now gone from very light to light snow.
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2 minutes ago, Uxbridge90 said:
Still haven't gone above freezing today
Been sitting under that more intense precipitation running through central London to almost Reading for over an hour, nothing to report other than some very light snow blowing around in the wind.
Will be interesting to see what the patch of precipitation over Broxbourne and Hertford gives. Seems to be heading our way / strengthening a bit.
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Constant very light to light snow, topping up the sugar coating. Was hopeful for that blob of precipitation north of Chelmsford, although it seems to be dying a death now !
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Managed a dusting overnight. Further showers seems be dying out way before they hit NW London, although perhaps that might change during the day. Should record an ice day, and perhaps tomorrow too (especially with a little snow on the ground).
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We have a sugar coating
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Cold, windy and on and off snizzle. Met Office app says heavy snow from 18:00, if only!
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Light snow, small flakes in Harrow. Not settling. Looks like this will be off and on during the day. Will be happy if i manage a dusting. As Kold Weather says, looking good if you are east of central London!
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A wintry mix in Harrow. Will I wake up to a dusting in the morning? Most models say no.. Either way its going to be cold
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10 minutes ago, Snowman. said:
Euro is going wild with the streamers on the 6z.
Totals!
I'm enjoying the grey zone, that i think i fall within (not to be taken seriously of course!)
Still, suggests a coupe of cms is reasonable. With such low dew points i suspect i'll lose quite a bit of whatever falls through sublimation!
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Looks like no more than dusting by the end of tomorrow here in NW London, but with the potential for snow showers early next week. It will be the depth and length of cold that will be most remarkable. 6c today. From Monday it will struggle to get above 0c until at least next weekend if the 6z, ECM and GEM come off..
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42 minutes ago, kold weather said:
Yeah I think Sunday is still highly uncertain for western parts of the region, some models get here and others struggle. No real consistency yet and so until that can zero in a little stronger one way or the other (basically a 50-50 split atm).
For example, looking through the ensembles the ECM 00z operational is towards the lower end of the range for the western parts of the region, but sits neatly into the middle of the range further east.
An amber warning will be absolutely justified for EA and Kent (maybe E.London) some point today. Yellow warning probably suffices further west due to higher levels of uncertanity here.
IF we get towards the upper end and then get a streamer set up, a red alert isn't out of the question for Estuary regions IMO.
Providing everything goes off ok, 20-30cms in NW Kent, maybe E.London and SW Essex looks quite possible, probably a wider area over E.Anglia of 10-20cms and then locally 20-30cms as well depending on the following distrubution of showers, etc.
Further west 1-5cms seems more reasonable, but again locally streamers, especially for Surrey, Berkshire and maybe parts of Hampshire may significantly boost that total.
Agreed, still looking rather good for those in the East. Like you say, its rather uncertain for us further west! I agree with @Uxbridge90 though, slate grey skies and ice days are not really my thing (although I won't begrudge further East getting in on the action!).
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Hmm as others have said, potentially looking less good away from EA / East of London for Sunday (everything from a dusting to several cms for my location). However, really down to radar watching on the day (we all know how it went a few Sundays back!). Going forward, should hopefully get a few showers and perhaps a period of snow from the south/ south west. Still, I am pleased that a number of those that missed out so far this winter look to do quite well! (Kent, EA etc..)
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17 minutes ago, Craigers said:
Here you go everyone
One of the best snow events i've ever (and will likely to) witness!
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The GEM take on Sunday. A decentish covering across much of our region (again, parts of East Anglia doing best)
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6 minutes ago, kold weather said:
12z GFS looks like its extending the moderate snowfall further SW covering basically the entire region.
Though hard to tell without seeing the closer in image. Also waiting to see what the 12z ICON shows for balance.
Looks like snowfall for the whole area on the morning hours before becoming increasingly restricted to the East of this region.
Yes, although snow totals appear to be slightly lower. At this stage though best not to pay close attention. That band will still shift around a little, although seems likely we'll get a decentish covering by Sunday evening!
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31 minutes ago, Snowman31 said:
Even in this situation with temps so low?
Where abouts in NW London are you? I wouldn't be worried about any snow melting for our locations.
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33 minutes ago, Daniel* said:
An exaggeration don’t you think? It has 3” across nearly all of London. Don’t take it as a gospel but looks good for all Londoners... I’d be happy.
Agreed, I've only found the snow melts more quickly as opposed to those outside the M25 get considerably more (but that's only 4 years experience, and i can count on one hand the snow events...). Still, I'm zone 4/5, it will be a little different right in the centre!
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An exciting update from the MO! Like others have said, that will get to Amber if anything like the GFS comes off (with extension of the yellow warning until at least Wednesday)
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54 minutes ago, Uxbridge90 said:
It's certainly going to be cold next week and those to the East of the region could see some pretty impressive snow accumulations!
Hoping we have similar totals (6cm) as the other weekend in West London, the perfect amount that doesn't cause too much disruption and it only lasts a few days, anymore than that and it just becomes a pain in the backside.
Let's hope for no further shifts in terms of Saturday evening/Sunday morning!
We may even break 10cm if the 6z GFS and ICON come off
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19 minutes ago, 80sWeather said:
Been working since 06:45 and just peeked at the models.
Jeezus wept the ECM snow depths for Sunday, hypothetical of course but shades of 1947 total bonkers
Looks good doesn't it!
Here in NW London it is becoming more likely I may break my 6cm fall from a few weeks ago! Perhaps even as early as Sunday (GFS Para looking particularly tasty). Hopefully we then get in on some of the shower action!
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A very snowy GFS Para, a good 5 to 10cm quite widely across our region by Wednesday morning (more in East Anglia)
WWW.METEOCIEL.FRMeteociel propose des cartes de prévisions du modèle americain GFS parallèle-
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15 minutes ago, kold weather said:
I've been very cautious so fr in the build up to this set-up.
However
The models are indeed getting increasingly snowy, the GFS ensembles are the snowiest yet, as is the most recent GEM as well.
There will probably be relative winners and losers though as per normal in any wind direction.
For example personally I think I will be right at the far end of any streamer that might set-up, and I may well be too far south given the flow looks a little too true Easterly at times. However I think there will be some snow, just no where the extent that some places further NE in the region might end up with.
Yes, beginning to look better for our region. I'm not rating my chances of anything significant here in NW London, but any covering of snow would be very much welcome!
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5 minutes ago, spear said:
The Met have put me in warning area (only just) from Saturday to Monday. Hopefully just the start and the cold and snow spreads to more of the region. Fingers crossed we all get snowed in.
I expect that will be extended south westwards over the next couple of days!
A good 6z GFS. Would likely lead to:
Sunday: Widespread (potentially prolonged) snow showers (especially across East Anglia)
Monday: Snow showers
Tuesday: Snow showers (becoming lighter and more scattered the further south and west)
Wednesday: Snow event from the South West.
All subject to change of course, and never take the precipitation charts literally (especially in these events). That said, shaping up to be an interesting couple days!
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9 hours ago, lassie23 said:
We have had a foot of snow before from an easterly in NW London. Obviously Kent and eastern most counties do best.
Thanks! What year was that?
I see many are worried about snow prospects for the weekend / early next. I've always been of the view get the cold in first and the snow will come. Having had so many lets downs in my 15 years on Net-weather I no longer let model upgrades / downgrades get to me. I'm thinking I may have jinxed our prospects next week though having held off buying new garden perennials...
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South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards
in Regional
Posted
Verging on moderate snow now!