Mark Bayley
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Posts posted by Mark Bayley
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A rather potent storm here in north London, and probably just worthy of the red warning. We are somewhat lucky that this hit when the trees are bare, otherwise i suspect we'd have had rather more disruption!!! Damage seems to be limited to numerous fence panels, tree branches, and somebodies wall!
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20 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:
Has the SE peaked or not?
Probably peaked west of central London, but gusts of 50 to 60mph until the early evening.
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Really going for it now! Fence has gone down. Should now be close to peak winds, before they start to reduce around 2 ish..
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Fence panels starting to come down here in Harrow. Given the strongest winds are not expected until between 12 and 1, will be intrigued to see how many i'll have to repair!
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4 minutes ago, Uxbridge90 said:
Some really quite big gusts coming through but fortunately no damage as of yet, trees in the park also seem to be doing impressively well. Some of the Deliveroo cyclists around here have no fear, saw one out and about with their shorts on, absolute nutters.
Wind really picking up in Harrow - peak winds still an hour or so away
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Wind really picking up now - suspect one of the fences will be gone by 1pm (given peak for here is not expected until just after mid day!)
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Interesting we got a red. Currently just breezy, but then it shouldn't pick up until late morning / early afternoon. My local MO weather station is Northolt, i'll punt for a maximum gust of around 70mph. Not expecting more than a few bins, odd fence panel down, the a couples of branches or so here. Still, couldn't hit at a worse time though.
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ARPEGE still delivers widespread 70mph gusts across the south, higher in exposed spots / close to the coast. As noted the possible sting jet is back!
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FWIW 18z GFS reduces the extent of the strongest gusts, but still very strong around the coasts. Though at this stage best to stick to the high res / now casting!
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Seems some of the models have moderated winds slightly. Still 60 to perhaps 70mph across my parts of London. Could be up to 80mph for a time in other parts of the region. Don't think we'll see a red warning but it will be close. In any case expect a few fence panels down, bins over, branches / the odd tree!
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7 hours ago, suffolkboy_ said:
I've been trying to find where we have seen anything comparable to this in the last few years in Norfolk/Suffolk. The only thing I can find close in the last 5 years is the 18th January 2018, which the MetOffice messed up on, only issuing a warning when the event was already underway. Here's the maximum gusts for that storm, and Friday's storm looks like it will trump this. The storm in 2018 cause a lot of power outages.
Indeed, for those of us in the North London area winds will likely peak at around 70mph, and more widely across the region 80mph. That possible sting jet wants watching though!
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6 minutes ago, If Wishes made Weather said:
With ref to Nick’s comment above, Arpege develops this region of vicious winds to the north of London as the storm moves through:
Here it is MPH. Up to 90mph gusts across far north London / southern midlands / southern EA. Hopefully remains on its own!!
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Just now, Wivenswold said:
Trees on railway lines at Luton, Nailsea (Bristol) and Keighley according to my tracking (ex-railwayman, I live for chaos).
Yep, expect most of the mainlines to be down on Friday!
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14 hours ago, Mark Bayley said:
Snap shot for Friday so far:
ICON: 50mph gusts quite widely, 60mph to 70mph on the south coast
ARPEGE: 60 to 70pmph gusts quite widely, perhaps 80mph north of the Thames / SE corner for a time
GFS: 60 to 70pmph gusts quite widely, perhaps 80mph north of the Thames / SE corner for a time
GEM: 70 to 80mph gusts quite widely
UKMO: 70 to 80mph gusts quite widely, perhaps 90mph+ on the south coast for a time
So all models bar the ICON show potentially damaging winds for a time. Expect orange warnings tomorrow across our whole region unless there is a dramatic shift towards the ICON (though would still expect orange warning close to the south coast)
Can't post charts though not much has changed. Appears the trend overnight has been a slight shift north, so strongest gusts over the north of our region. General consensus is for 70 to perhaps 80mph gusts quite widely, with up 90mph in some exposed location's. This will do more than blow a few wheelie bins over. Expect amber warnings today!
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Snap shot for Friday so far:
ICON: 50mph gusts quite widely, 60mph to 70mph on the south coast
ARPEGE: 60 to 70pmph gusts quite widely, perhaps 80mph north of the Thames / SE corner for a time
GFS: 60 to 70pmph gusts quite widely, perhaps 80mph north of the Thames / SE corner for a time
GEM: 70 to 80mph gusts quite widely
UKMO: 70 to 80mph gusts quite widely, perhaps 90mph+ on the south coast for a time
So all models bar the ICON show potentially damaging winds for a time. Expect orange warnings tomorrow across our whole region unless there is a dramatic shift towards the ICON (though would still expect orange warning close to the south coast)
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6 minutes ago, weirpig said:
Very troubling ukmo
Yep, pushes the strongest winds slightly further south but intensifies them along the south coast. Can never make out the colour scales on these charts, but must be close to 90mph gusts, with 70 to 80 quite widely across south Midlands, South West and South East.. GEM take
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And here's the UKMO take. Again, pretty windy...
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We also get another batch of widely 50 to 60mph gusts the following day, which won't help with any clean up!
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Close to 80 to 90mph gusts across the South West, South Wales, southern Midlands and East Anglia, maybe up 70mph for a time parts of across part of London (especially north) and other parts of the SE. Track slightly further north than the previous run. Baton down hatches! If still apparent on the 0z and other model, suspect we'll see the orange warnings tomorrow morning. Could we get a red?
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6z has shifted the worst of the winds ever so slightly southwards - looking pretty bad for southern counties.. Will be interesting to see if those small southwards shifts continue.
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Sorry, late this time, 4.8c please
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March 2022 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
7.2c please