Mark Bayley
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Posts posted by Mark Bayley
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Debating whether to stay in Harrow or head back north (Sheffield) for my snow fix. Certainly don't want to miss out on any frontal events (which will favour the south)..
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Will be snow chaos in London if the ECM comes off! All models showing some significant snowfall for most of our region. Hard to contain excitement..
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ECM is towards the top of the 850hpa spread for London
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Yes, a good set of models runs. Nowhere near as immense as yesterdays 6z GFS, but still good enough for plenty of snow chances (and not all convective). Some runs are better than others for widespread snow showers (GEM and UKMO), but on Tuesday most develop a small feature traversing south west which delivers a more organise period of snow. One to keep an eye on as we head towards the weekend.
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So to summarise the 6z GFS
Sunday: Light snow showers in the east
Monday: Widespread snow showers
Tuesday: Widespread snow showers
Wednesday: Widespread snow showers
Thursday: Show showers
Friday: Heavy snow
Saturday: Heavy snow
Sunday: Heavy snow...
Monday: Snow showers
Tuesday: Snow flurries
Wednesday: Dry
An insane run for snow, with very significant accumulations in flaoured areas. Although just for fun I'd suggest 20-30cm as a minimum (widely)
Subject to change of course, but shows how crazy some of these runs are!
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2 minutes ago, Sharpedge said:
What will happen if the wind veers S.E.
Is less good for widespread snow showers, albeit good for the south coast etc..
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2 minutes ago, exodus said:
The likes of GFS precip charts currently show ore in the way of convective snowfall in the North rather than SE...
There is a longer fetch. It will require the likes of the NAE, NMM etc.. to provide more accurate forecsts (especially for our region). The current graphics are based on the mesoscale models. In any case shower and trough activity is hard to predict, in most cases it will be nowcasting. Only thing to be weary of is winds veering SE.
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1 minute ago, E17boy said:
Goodmorning wonderful people just got to Milton Keynes for work from London and the sun is shining here but I can feel the nip in that wind today.
Hope you all have a great Tuesday
Fingers still crossed the time is getting closer but still stay cautious.
All the best
regards ????
Won't be doing that next week.. ?
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Ignore the metoffice and bbc apps. They'll significantly underestimate the shower activity (especially at this range). Every model would give significant accumulations in the east of our region, with decent falls elsewhere.
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Moderate snow here, and sticking. Report's of snow in the West Midlands are promising
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1 minute ago, The PIT said:
Light snow here but it is trying to settle
Same here, although only on top of the cars. Everywhere else is to wet. Still, it is very light. Lets see what the heavier precipitation brings, i suspect heavy sleet!
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After a morning of heavy sleet, it has finally decided to turn to snow. Unfortunately just a slushy covering in places. A shame as Bramley (similar elevation) / Dronfield are under 10 miles away from me!
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Turned to heavy rain after 40 mins. Ah well. Good luck to everyone else!
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Not expecting much here, other than some transient snow. Would like to be western Sheffield though!
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1 hour ago, Justin Miller said:
Big band of sleet north or London, anyone getting sleet or is it just rain ☔️
Was sleety in Harrow. Didn't last long though
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Seems to be turning sleety in NW London. Still lots of snow / slush on the pavements. Can see a bigger risk of ice tomorrow morning!
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Possibly an extra couple of cm's tomorrow
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Yes pepping up here - may get a good dusting before it clears!
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Very light now - snow melting on the paths. Plenty more opportunities to come at least
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Yes getting a little heavier here. Can't see more than a cm or two though, which is still good.
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Same here, constant light snow. Funny as i wanted to stay up north yet they have a good few cm's down in Harrow!
SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards
in Regional
Posted
Well just about everyone is shot of some pretty deep falls next week, especially the further south and east you are. I suspect Fridays low will track further south, meaning we miss out on the frontal snow event.