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Mark Bayley

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    Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Mark Bayley

    23 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    But it couldn’t really go anywhere near the scottish borders? No model has shown this over the past 48 hours.  Can’t see the low centre tracking se much north of Carlisle  and the probability is strong it will be heading into n Ireland and then disrupting se towards se england - the cone widens as it leaves n Ireland to be somewhere between Lincolnshire and Cornwall imo 

    i am thinking Carlisle isn’t far from the Scottish Borders but as the system slides  se it doesn’t have enough easterly momentum to go ne at all. 

    Tbf the JMA does - although not exactly a beacon of reliability :crazy:

    J78-21.GIF?07-6

     

    • Like 1

    Yorkshire & E England Regional Weather Discussion

    in Regional

    Posted

    1 minute ago, terrier said:

    Not been funny but the met at the moment will be covering all bases till this track is nailed down. We could still easily miss out if it tracks further south. So until Saturdays 12z runs I will remain very cautious regarding any significant snowfall for our region. 

    Indeed, and as noted in the model thread, the ARPEGE also looks to be tracking further south, although doesn't go past T72

    arpege-1-72-0.png?07-11arpege-2-72-0.png?07-11

    There will be numerous changes in track and intensity over the coming days. As per my previous post, i'd plump for somewhere in the Midlands faring best!

    Or perhaps just the Scottish mountains :pardon:

    J78-21.GIF?07-6

    Good job its rubbish 

     

    Yorkshire & E England Regional Weather Discussion

    in Regional

    Posted

    31 minutes ago, cowdog said:

    You won't miss it. This isn't a small 50 mile wide band of precipitation, its going to cover the whole of England, assuming it doesn't go really really south, and only 1 run of 1 model has shown that. Its going to be absurdly unlikely that West Yorkshire / South Yorkshire don't get at least a few cm of snow.

     

    The thing is somewhere could get a foot of it from Sundays event - thats what really everyone is talking about, and that peak area has moved so that instead of it being around West Yorkshire its now Warwickshire / Derbyshire way.

    I was jesting, but yes that is how i see it unfolding. Based on the models so far today, the 'sweet spot' will be somewhere south of the line from Sheffield, north of Northampton. Although further north could still get a couple of cm's  - if it doesn't shift south. This could still happen (e.g. NAVGEM), so caution advised!navgem-2-84.png?07-12

     

     

    SE and East Anglia generalweather discussion 08/11/2017 onwards

    in Regional

    Posted

    6 minutes ago, lawrenk said:

    Poor old North West if that happens, having seemed to be in the prime position up until now.

    I might even be OK in Hailsham based on that chart.

    What’s the betting though that it keeps correcting south to the extent that even I’m too far north!

    Sods law dictates that it will track so far south that most of the UK misses any precipitation, or it turns into a Pennies only event!

    In all seriousness, looking like somewhere between Yorkshire and the South Midlands is in for a shot. I'd go with with higher ground across the Midlands as favoured. 

    I'll be coming back to the SE on Sunday evening, from the north Midlands. I'll be hoping to catch something! 

     

     

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