Mark Bayley

ECM is further south, there will be further minor changes! https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2017120812/england/acc-precipitation-snow-total/20171210-2100z.html

ECM further south, although still has decent accumulations for South Yorkshire https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2017120812/england/acc-precipitation-snow-total/20171210-2100z.html

Snow accumulation from the Euro4

I have also ended up 'down south', although find myself in Sheffield this weekend. Very tempted to go back Monday rather than Sunday evening! Some back edge snow on Monday, though (London)!

? UK Outlook for Saturday 23 Dec 2017 to Saturday 6 Jan 2018: During the early part of this period we are likely to see a transition from spells of wet and windy weather moving across the UK towards more benign weather becoming established. This is likely to bring a mixture of colder, drier conditions and shorter lived milder, wetter and windier interludes. Snow is likely at times, especially in more northern and central parts of the UK. Temperatures will probably be below average overall. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcrp54pyc

Yes, that is always a risk. I don't expect any significant changes however. At worse North and west Yorkshire may miss the 'worst' of it, but those further south should see decent event, unless there is a significant track further south.

Indeed, Rotherham is well placed!

Another model, another slight shift north. Cracking for South Yorkshire with other areas joining in on the 'games'

Final one from me Models suggest snow showers from tomorrow afternoon and evening - only a dusting though

For what its worth the GEM is also further north, albeit slightly.. 24 hours of snow for South Yorkshire, so 10-20cm won't be surprising. Several CM's for West and North and parts of East Yorkshire. Again, this can and will shift

GFS 12z ever so slightly better for those further north

Yes - awaiting the 12zs with interest!

Dewpoints are generally between 0 and 1c, and heavier precipitation will bring that down a little.

In all seriousness, highlights how marginal it is. Will be a fine line between getting pasted and seeing sleet / cold rain, further north and west you are the better (thats if you see any precipitation!)

Not really, however i don't think it will move to much now. My punt is for South Yorkshire to fare best (several cms), but the Midlands the sweet spot. It will be a case of radar watching on the day!

Again, just to emphasise the risk of further southerly corrections.

I'll be travelling back to Harrow from the north midlands on Sunday evening, so with any luck i'll get to see two snow events (that's if the trains are running Sunday evening..) GFS is very marginal for Monday, and certainly for my area (Harrow) i can see heavy sleet at best (GFS), although those in the home counties could get a real pasting. To note that the ECM has the precipitation further south, although snow restricted to higher ground The ARPEGE has the precipitation clipping Kent - lots of changes to come!

Marginal for Monday, however those on the northern edge of that low will get an absolute pasting if the 6z comes off! Some agreement from the ECM too, although further south https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2017120800/england/snow-depth-in/20171211-1800z.html

Sunday 10am or 1pm snap shot for all the models (bar UKMO). Heaviest precipitation reaching South Yorkshire, still a chance for a good covering further north. I would expect some southward corrections, however. WRF NMM, ARPEGE, GFS, ICON, GEM, NAVGEM, ECM https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2017120800/england/acc-total-precipitation/20171211-1200z.html

See the link, these charts are a bit funny!

Although note the Yorkshire forecast has accumulations possible, whereas the Midlands forecast says significant accumulations likely. We await the 6z and updated warning. I think they are going with the ECM solution, which pastes the north and west Midlands. South Yorkshire sees the action a well. https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2017120800/england/acc-total-precipitation/20171211-1200z.html

Dusting of snow already. Radar suggests a decent covering by the morning!

That's annoying! I remember some good events when i was living in Ranmoor, when here got sleet. Still, i am similar altitude to you and generally do well! Temperature dropping here, so hopefully those showers will fall as snow.

Tbf the JMA does - although not exactly a beacon of reliability

Perhaps a cm or two tomorrow morning..?