Azores Hi

Nice convective day down at Sandgate today.

Back in the dawn of time of strat discussion we referred mainly to this chart and OMG I don't remember anything this bad! This is your cue ( more modern experts) to say this is just one dimension and tell me why we still have hope for this winter?

Great effort, well constructed forecast. All hopes for cold on a SSW for Christmas then!

So, middle earth then.

My wife took this picture of a fall streak hole today over East Sussex. Just thought you lot may like to see it! More about them here: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fallstreak_hole

I've got the anvil in sight here.

It really isn't, yet.

Yep. I can see the tops of these storms. heading my way.

I see anvils! Heading this way but very distant, French storms showing off their berets.

Big old pile o'nothin in the north sea now on radar. After the thin band of showers moves through entering the north Kent coast now I can't see where the next batch is coming from. And the window of opportunity is closing...

Moderate snow in Ashford, frustratingly blue skies appear just as it's starting to stick. Going to accumulate jack all if this keeps up! *sigh* radar watch continues, more incoming at at least it looks quite potent, we need it more frequent though.

Had a shower of what I can only call, wet graupel, quite brief. Radar looks FUBAR so it's a case of look out the window to see what will fall out of the sky next!

MMMmmmm drizzle in Ashford

Draw a line Canterbury Ashford Hastings, that line and all points east at risk IMO. Showers need to kick up in intensity though as it all looks a bit feable right now.

Looking at radar, looks like Canterbury getting clobbered, were next in Ashford, getting very menacing looking out there!

A few hours of this streamer to come yet, precipitation due to go more offshore thereafter for the extreme SE. But that's just a forecast ...

Doh! I knew I'd regret not mentioning every county! My point was though with high pressure across much of the country and NE wind confined to the far SE then it is only the far SE that gets the snow, areas further north can be inhibited by the high pressure but I take the point, the whole of the east is at risk to a degree and it's still 6/7 days away yet so bound to look different by then.

Indeed, Surrey has got to be one of the hardest places to get snow, sheltered from all directions but can do well in a slider or channel low, not always best spot in an easterly though unless showers penetrate well inland.

Nice cross model agreement on. NEasterly setting in end of next week. Just need the ECM to agree tonight and I'll be happy. Don't buy into all this talk of the high pressure being too far south, if we can draw the cold air in, even in a fairly slack flow then Kent, Essex and Sussex can get clobbered while the rest of the country stays dry. All a bit too far away yet but this is what we need to see in the far SE and offers the best hope for decent snow IMBY!

Bits of snow overnight gave a meagre accumulation this morning, woke to drizzle but it's just started snowing again! Been a bit surprised at the amounts, more than I thought but still nothing spectacular. Chance of a bit more wintry-ness yet over the next week but have to say outlook looks dry for the shorterm. Maybe we can squeeze a bit of snow out of a brief NEasterly later? Generally though, the projected Synoptics are not the Synoptics we are looking for...

Very good, informative forecast from Tomasz Schackernathermacker on BBC lunchtime news, graphics showing some risk of light snow pretty much everywhere tonight. That nice looking disturbance north of the UK now is forcasted to head due south and then take a more SE track as it exits somewhere off the south coast. Preciptition on its north east flank should be snow an this grazes the SE early in the morning. My afternoon's entertainment? Watching the track of that low on sats!

Ashford, Kent. Sleet. Just!

A few comments from me in a rare post in the MOD thread! GFS hinted at a pattern change two weeks ago for this period although as we should it has been taken with a large pinch of salt! Also predicted the MJO phase rather well IMO. Low pressure never seems too far away in any of the runs I've seen recently so I'm sceptical of a dry outlook, although low pressure also brings with it the risk of warm sectors so plenty of marginal snow risks around next week. A forecasters nightmare RE: above! Nice to be staring down the barrel of a cold spell in January for a change, something we have not seen for quite a few years! Be careful what you wish for, potential for a real dumping somewhere! Still a few days away from getting any real solid and consistent output from the models so let's get storm Rachel out the way and hopefully we can get a proper handle on what next week has in store.

I'm going to punch the GFS in the face!

Yeah nice! Tops of the downs maybe? North downs in particular I would have thought.