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Haevy rain continuing now since 8am, thunder and lightening observed about half an hour ago but nothing since then. Jimmyay I think yoru too far east for this as like you say it's gradually heading NW, even though the low level cloud is coming from the NE!! I think we've had at least an inch here this morning, big puddles everywhere but nothing too serious thankfully (at the moment!)

Morning all! Woke up at 7.30 and the ground was hardly wet, I was thinking this is a non-event but since 8am it's been non-stop heavy rain and we're now getting thunder and lightening!

I saw some lightening to my west about half an hour ago, but apart from that nothing else. Waiting to see if the cells off the coast reactivate again before going out for another look! As for tomorrow, I think the main action will be well north of here, I'm expecting possibly up to an inch max around this area.

Mods feel free to move or close but I thought with this being quite an exceptional event for some, I thought I would open a dedicated thread. Met office are forecasting totals up to 100mm in places which would undoubtedly cause flooding and traffic problems. The main risk seems to have moved now from the SE to central areas, however disruption is possible anywhere in England and Wales. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_...t_warnings.html An idea of rainfall area: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn304.png You just know this is going to make the news come tomorrow night/Saturday for the wrong reasons. What does everybody else think?

I can see that cell to my north, it's certainly built up quickly over the last hour! I can also see alot of convection going on to my east over east sussex/kent border heading north east. Wouldn't be surprised if they turned thundery soon as well.

Read Paul S post regarding possibilities for tonight on the previous page, probably just some rain, not much in the way of storms for the south.

Yeah definitely heading southwestwards here, a dark cloud just went over here but no rain, getting brighter now.

I haven't checked to see if an analysis has already been done, but maybe the question should be, "where did it go wrong?" Many LRF's went for a colder than average second half of winter, yet that never really materalised. I'm sure IB, TEITS, WIB, Tamara G, KW and Steve et al will have their own views about what went wrong? I presume alot of discussion will base itself around the SST's, the strong jet, the AO etc but the I guess the question with these is what caused them to be a portent for alot of zonality? There must be some overiding factors which will hopefully be learnt from and used for next winter!

Thanks SH for all the updates, it might seem no one cares as your the only one that seems to be posting but I'm all sure we all appreciate your efforts! I find it interesting about how much severe weather you get over there, obviously the big weather news is nearly always from the States, but you seem to get it just as good (or bad!). Keep up the good work!

Hi WF, To say I was disappointed to see rain last Friday was an understatement! Like you've said, you've really got to be there to appreciate just how cold it is, even when I've experienced -7 here, it hasn't felt nowhere near as cold as it did there! As for next weeks possible storm I'm with you in that it might just come far enough north affect you. Talking to the locals they said any storms tend to be forcasted to the south and then gradually get nudged further north, so good luck! You've probably got a better chance with this then last week as the jet is on a different projection. Typically I had to come back to the UK to get my snow! Woke up to 2.5 inches of snow this morning...which was nice!

Well we did miss the snow, but man it was bitterly cold! Thursday and Friday was okay, max temps were about 2 or 3 degrees. Then we had some rain and sleet on Friday evening which heralded extremely cold artic air! Max temp on Sat was minus 5!! With a wind chill on top! Yesterday the max got up to -7. I've never experienced cold like that, everytime the wind touched your face it felt like pins and needles. But it was awesome though! It's looking like staying cold over the NE for a few days yet, with possibly some snow flurries in the next couple of days. Anyway I'll leave the analysis to WF

Keep the updates coming WF! If the PV can stay where forcasted, then I think February will make up for the lack of snow in the NE! There definitely appears to be some extreme cold heading to the midwest and if it does get locked in, then you have to say there is a good chance the STJ will strengthen with the NAO showing signs of going negative. This will hopefully in turn bring some nor'easters to your part of the world. At least I can say one thing for when I go over there, it's going to be cold! I'd love to see a good dump of snow before I have to come back, but it's looking like I might miss it by a whisker!

Thanks and yes I will make sure we tip well, as I'm sure we'll definitely be having more than 2 drinks! It is looking interesting for next weekend! I'm not sure whether to get excited about seeing decent snow, or worried that we won't able to fly home on the Sunday! haha! Anyway have a good trip and enjoy the fridge freezer temps!

haha! Yeah it looks certain to be cold enough to bring some thermals! I'm going with the missus and another couple so I'll warn them in advance! We're staying at the Metro, so we'll probably pop into the irish bar around the corner from there one evening. So if your in there, and you see 4 frozen english people, that'll be us! haha! Going completely off topic, which bar is the best in your view that's a true american bar? (if you know what I mean!)

2 snow showers and 1 sleet shower this morning. The second snow shower was the heaviest of the this cold snap and gave a light dusting. A lovey surprise! So that's 4 days on the trot I've seen snow falling! Not a bad spell at all!

Thanks WF, all to play for still! I'll read your comments with increased interest next week!

Thanks for the updates, it's always a pleasure to read what's happening across the pond! A question for WF or Roger, I'm travelling to New York on 01st Feb for 3 nights and I was wondering what the prospects are for snow? I've seen on Accuweather they're expecting sleet on the Friday with possibly some snow on the Sunday (the day I have to fly back!) does that look right? I understand there might be a major snow storm sometime next week, any further info on this? Cheers guys!

Thanks Paul for changing the title! It's certainly being called plenty of things! I think the people affected by this would certainly not think it was "small" or "mini"!

Mods, can you change the title to reflect the homepage title? I don't it can be classed as a small tornado now. Looking at the reports and pictures, it seems to be the same intensity if not duration of the Birmingham tornado?

I spoke too soon! Hopefully not serious?

I think it's been near enough a miracle that no one has actually died from being hit yet, let's hope that continues for quite a while yet! :o Again, reports coming in that no one has been injured, quite incredible! :o it's interesting about the reports of sleet, could that be a sign of a significant downburst?

Yes it's always good when they use the correct terminology! :o It's possible that it was straight line winds that caused it, I guess we'll find out more once TORRO have been on the scene!

More details here: http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/foru...=11&start=1

Don't know if this has been reported yet, but I was just getting my lunch and saw live pictures from Sky showing damage that a "small" tornado has just done! Damage to quite a few houses being shown! Anyone got anymore info?

Just to say I'm a newbie (literally!) but I've been following various forums for the last 3 years and gained plenty of knowledge from these sites! I just think it's fascinating reading LRF's when they come out as it does add to the excitement of the possiblities of what winter may bring Does that mean I actually believe they'll pan out like that? No as I know enough to realise it's a forecast, not a realcast. I'm just going to enjoy the ride that awaits us all because at the end of the day, the weather is going to do what it wants! Whether we get depressed, frustrated or get happy as Larry, I just hope we all get at least a little bit of what we would like to see within the next few months!