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tcc

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  1. tcc
    I think this winter will see the weakness theme in most of the teleconnections. A weak NAO, a weak El Nino, a weak westerly QBO. All we need to do now is find out what the AO, PNA and PDO is going to be! Their September update will be the one to take note of, that will give the biggest indication of what their long range models are thinking.
  2. tcc
    I'm actually with you here John, all that can be done with LRF's is to try and come up with a possible trend, detail is impossible! Read the forecast as a forecasted trend and it makes sense. I've read the above as being unsettled with not much chance of any hot spells. Not really sure what the criticism is for? What detail would you like for 6 months time?
  3. tcc
    That's what I was thinking! Especially good when you take in account the forecasts from CPC who expect La Nina to weaken to weak/neutral come winter. Be interesting to know what the UKMO expect ENSO conditions to be as they weren't far off for last winter!
  4. tcc
    Azores92, you quoted the wrong person! hence JO7's confusion! I believe you were supposed to quote the one where the poster (Michael-Prys?) showed the events of a particular year, incluidng the 60mm in an hour! Anyway I'm going to go with the Metoffice and go with an average year, I don't really mind what happens for the last 2 weeks of June as I'll be in Orlando! B) Storms here I come!
  5. tcc
    GP, I read on TWO (Gavin P might be able to find it) that there is a study into why the Polar Vortex has been stronger over recent years and it says it's due to the number of CFC's in the air which increases the cold more significantly than previously. Might be worth checking out, it might have your answer!
  6. tcc
    I'm really going at the wrong time aren't I! So now I don't have to worry about Felix, is this one starting to look like it could develop? It is further north which means it could head more NW, it all depends I guess on the high pressure over SE USA and whether it's going to weaken. I think there's a trough over the SW States headin east which could weaken the high pressure, which in turn could cause this invest to swing NW and head towards Florida northwards.
  7. tcc
    Have you seen the latest satellite image for 94L? It looks a beaut! As long as it stays away from the Yucatan, I'll be happy to watch this one develop! B)
  8. tcc
    Cheers for the updates B)
  9. tcc
    NO no no no no! I don't want to go through that again! Wondering if I have to change my holiday destination, then finding out that it's okay, only for you to show me a potential TS! I only hope it doesn't end up anywhere near the Yucatan! We leave next Saturday so I don't want any headaches before that thanks very much! haha! Keep us posted KW & Iceberg, and I'll keep the holiday brochure handy
  10. tcc
    It certainly is possible! If there are minimal dry air intrusions, minimal shear etc, there is plenty of energy ready to be tapped once Dean enters the warmer waters of the Gulf. If he avoids the main Carribean island, it's definitely possible for this to be a CAT 5 by the time it hits the Yucatan/Gulf coast.
  11. tcc
    Obviously from a purely selfish point of view, I hope it does turn north enough to not have and adverse effect around the Yucatan. However I'm fully aware that if it does it will be very nasty for the Texans (or god forbid anywhere near New Orleans!)
  12. tcc
    Maybe it's something to do with the EWR? (Eye Wall Replacement). Wouldn't this affect the pressure slightly? Still looks like a hit to the Yucatan then, hoping for a gradual curve to the north! However obviously I wouldn't wish this to hit anywhere, it's going to be nasty and all over the news in a few days time!
  13. tcc
    I'll be hoping it does end up on a more northern track. To be honest even if it's a 100 miles north of Cancun, that won't as bad as the wind will be coming from the west from over the land towards the coast, so "hopefully" this will mean less damage! Interesting developments ahead I feel
  14. tcc
    There's a Dean in our office, so I've been giving him stick saying he's ruining my holiday plans! Not looking good is it, oh well I'll have to check with the hotel next week to see how much damage it's sustained. (Assuming the path forecasted turns out to be correct). Not liking the idea of further tropical waves either!
  15. tcc
    Hmmmm, not looking good for my holiday to the Yucatan in 3 weeks time! Looks like even if Dean misses or bypasses the Yucatan, there's other tropical waves that could scupper my plans!
  16. tcc
    Cheers Kold, I guess the only concern would be a direct hit, otherwise I should imagine the hotel will be up and running by then. But like you say I am in prime hurricane time, I guess I have to ask myself whether I feel lucky or not! :lol:
  17. tcc
    I'm keeping a very close eye on this to see where it lands. I'm meant to be going to Puerto Morelos (30 mins south of Cancun) on the 8th Sept so if it does hit the area in the next few days, I might need to change my plans if my hotel is destroyed!
  18. tcc
    As the low moves along the channel, I think the really heavy stuff will start to move towards us and then be pulled away as the low moves through, the coast might get some of it but probably not! Even so, it's still raining quite heavily here...
  19. tcc
    A couple of beefy showers this morning, but nothing electrical. These showers are certainly dumping alot of rain though!
  20. tcc
    We now have sunshine!
  21. tcc
    Brightening up here now with just some very light rain, wind and clouds now coming from the south west. So there must be quite a strong convergence zone to my north now. Hopefully it'll brighten up enough so that we get some storms later!
  22. tcc
    I guess I really meant for this area of West Sussex it's been spot on, I guess there had to be some areas where the risk hasn't materalised. Anyway you had the fun the other week with your MCS! B)
  23. tcc
    Apparently in Copthorne, which is a 5 min drive from here, they've had 50mm in the last hour!! B) :o That isn't surprising considering the intensity!! Still the odd rumble but definitely moving away and by the looks of it, that's the worst of it over as judging by the radar, it's now becoming dry on the south coast, should stop raining in the next hour. But that was fun and well done to the NW team and metoffice for getting this spot on!
  24. tcc
    About 20 min ago we had a proper thunderstorm, constant lightning with torrential rain! Still hearing thunder now but rain not as heavy, difficult to see which way it's heading though as very murky. Not surprised to hear of flooding in Horsham, if this keeps up for the next few hours there could be quite a bit of flooding, especially flash flooding.
  25. tcc
    Yeah I saw and heard that! I was having a cigarette at the time, made me jump!! More thunder and lightning now to my north east, must be heading towards you now?
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