tcc

Seeing the Op on the ensembles graph takes me back a few years (07 or 08 maybe?) when the GFS Op went off on one showing cold (beast from the east) run after run after run, yet the rest of the ensembles refused to follow it's lead. There was even one run from the ECM which supported it, however within T120 or T96, the Op fell in line with the rest of the ensembles. I think it didn't take into consideration a shortwave off Norway. Anyway my point being is that this is what we could be seeing with the warm Op against the rest, it'll be interesting to see what will be correct.

Excellent thanks, I guess they moved on from Easternuswx!

Hi CC or whoever, which US board is this on? Cheers!

haha! I wasn't actually thinking of you! getting some real heavy wet snow here, massive lumps of the stuff!

Heavy driving snow here at Gatwick! Lovely to see especially as we weren't supposed to see any snow this side of Xmas!! (According to some folk!) Not settling though, but should be nice on the North Downs!

Wet Snow here in Crawley, sometimes changing to Sleet but mostly snow. Not settling but nice to see anyway!

Gettign darker here, and just started raining. Looking south it looks pitch black! Lovely jubbly!

Blimey, a proper storm here for the last 15 min, started with distant thunder on a regular basis and now heavy rain with Thunder and lightning overhead! First time in years that this has happened!

Thunder heard and lightning seen just to the west of me here, I'd say it went over Horsham and is now heading NNE gaining strength! No rain yet though but very dark, seems brighter to my south now.

That is surprising Coast, as from my vantage spot I can see to the south of me that the tops are glaciated nicely and it just "looks" like a storm!

But it does bode well for Winter! :ph34r: I'll get my coat...

Had some heavy rain around 1am but no thunder or lightning, and again about 5am. So lots of rain which is great, but no storms! Maybe later on today if we're lucky here in the SE

No nothing to get excited about here, jsut some drizzly stuff making the ground wet....which is in itself quite remarkable as I can't remember the last time we had the ground wet!

You should have a good chance at seeing "something", whether it's a proper storm or something out at sea who knows! Surrey - I don't think that'll be the path that those showers go on, I think they will curve so actualy go through the southern counties, whether still electrifued we won't know until it gets here!

I was out and about around Crawley yesterday and it was amazing how local it really was! One minute I was on the eastern side of town near gatwick and it was hammering down but no thunder. Went to the Sainsburys which is about 2 mile to the west and it was relatively dry and it was there I heard the one bit of thunder from above. Back home in Ifield which is about another 3 miles west and bone dry and that's the way it stayed! So I'm hoping todays convergence will give me a bit more of a chance of a decent storm!

Ooooh that blob has hit me! It's very small flakes but lots of them! Like a misty blizzard! Don't think it's settling though

Looks to be somewhat heavier showers appearign to be hitting mid Sussex on the raintoday radar? Anyone confirm?

:lol: Yeah exactly, considering we appear to be in a typical La Nina winter season, then late Feb and March could well see us seeing enough snow to build a snowman again!

Had a slight dusting on the car which was nice! Also saw a light flurry about 7.30, those small polystyrene bits of snow! Ah well at least I saw snow again!

This. Jayces - Considering that this little cold snap could produce some snow for some, it's better than mild and wet! Also it looks like this is our only chance till possibly mid to late Feb, we gotta make do with what we get!

I understand it'll be around the 20th October, so not long to wait!

Thanks Paul (and thanks to GP for doing the forecasts!) Quick question, how did last winters forecast verify?

Ooo very dark to my NW and North, saw the cloud tops about half an hour ago heading this way and the rain is coming! Should be here in the next 20 min and I "think" I heard a rumble of thunder! (Might have been a plane taking off or my stomach, I'm not sure at this stage!)

I can see it's all dark to my south, can't hear any thunder though! Obviously too far away! We've got just light rain here, keeping my fingers cross for the developing trough that's currently heading towards Reading!

Thanks Blast & SB, I think this winter is going to be tough to call!