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tcc

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  1. tcc
    What years and years of experience has taught me watching the models with big blocks like the Russian one is that it could get interesting once the energy from the North Atlantic recedes. That block is just waiting to pounce and when it does, it will do it quickly! I believe that the high is only going to get bigger as we head deeper into winter. I really wouldn't be surprised to be experiencing an easterly/north easterly within the next 2 or 3 weeks.
  2. tcc
    Dude, you can ask as many people as you like, but the answer is going to be the same. No one knows what is going to happen, all that we can do is try and look for possible trends via various Teleconnections. So I suggest stop asking the same question over and over and read what Chi, GP, J Holmes etc are saying and what they think may happen, and you'll get your answer!
  3. tcc
    Been moderate wet snow for about 20 min here! First snow of this Winter! Lovely jubbly!
  4. tcc
    According to xcweather, Gatwick has a temp of 1c and a DP of -1c, that is marginal for some snow flakes if that DP doesn't go up.
  5. tcc
    Yes Steve that is interesting, we need to see if this is consistent over the next few days before we can a degree of confidence. Having UKMO on board also would be good!
  6. tcc
    Didn't GP allude to the possible idea of the segment of PV moving from Canada to Scandi? I can't find the post now but I thought he had mentioned this a few days ago? Anyway if ECM is on to something then fair enough, we'll see what happens next however what cannot be denied is that there is not much of a Vortex so we know that we're not heading for a long zonal spell. Let's see what the fax says tonight (whether it follows the ECM) and what tomorrow morning brings, it'll be interesting to see if UKMO and ECM are still different!
  7. tcc
    Getting very blowy, and now the fence is over! I'd say the squall should hit in about 40 min
  8. tcc
    That actually looks a very impressive cross polar flow! As BA used to say.. the train is coming...
  9. tcc
    Those 3 degrees warmers waters were obliterated by Sandy, they are now back to normal.
  10. tcc
    I think the difference this time is that the cold strat was not all the way through, which means any kind of warmth will have an effect.Obviously these minor warmings wouldn't have an effect if the strat/PV was in full force i.e very cold.
  11. tcc
    Go on then! RH10, cheers
  12. tcc
    Yes in the far reaches of FI (I know) there is a lovely example of a split Vortex: Which could explain why the AO forecast says it's going to tank negative: Not sure where this sits with the forecasted Strat temps? All very confusing and will be very difficult to forecast too far ahead!
  13. tcc
    Ah yes GSL, just like that! Good find, I'm sure there was another one in the last few years as I remember Steve M talking about the PV moving to Baffin Island etc but yes that is what I meant!
  14. tcc
    Am I right in thinking that even if there is a PV forming due to record cold strat etc, it still requires it to set up over Greenland to have a big effect on our weather? Isn't it feasible that we could still get cold with a strong vortex as long as it's not over Greenland? I'm sure I remember winters in the past (5 or 6 years ago) where there was a strong PV but it lifted out of Greenland (and the northern jet with it) which allowed a Scandi block to develop and we got some easterly action!
  15. tcc
    Sorry to hear that mate, it's a common misconception that whatever the States get (aka New York), we get. However that's not true. All we can do is keep an eye on the forecasts from the Meto, here etc and see what happens!
  16. tcc
    pfft...talk about sitting on the fence! Call yourself a forecaster! haha!
  17. tcc
    Thanks Matt, much appreciated for your update and continued updates to come!
  18. tcc
    European Winter forecast from Accuweather: http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/europe-winter-forecast-2012-2013/961001 In our neck of the woods, below average temps
  19. tcc
    Matt, what did the ecm 32 dayer say today? Showing some consistency? Cheers
  20. tcc
    It's amazing Coast, up here in sunny Crawley it's been dry all morning and only a little bit cloudy at times. Yet I can see the big showers to my south drifting by!
  21. tcc
    Yes we can't just assume that if GP's forecast is correct that the block will bring us cold! It might end up being a west based -NAO which will be no good to us if your looking for cold.
  22. tcc
    What a beautiful chart...where's the PV again? Isn't this what is termed a 4 wave pattern? Would this pattern also help chiono's Canadian Warming....maybe?
  23. tcc
    My basic understanding of the Strat is such that as far as I can tell, you don't NEED a SSW to create a blocking scenario. What does help create blocking is if the Strat is warmer than the average. As John points out above, the strat warmed considerably, however it was not a SSW (as far as I'm aware) yet it helped with the cold spell in late Dec/Jan. Obviously there are other ingredients as the Strat is not the only teleconnector, but it IS becoming apparent that is one of the most important in terms of forecasting what the climate could be in a few weeks time.
  24. tcc
    He hasn't though CC and that's the point, if you've read all of his posts you will see what I mean! I'm all for opinions cold or mild, but when IMO it's just for attention, I'd rather use the ignore function (if NW have one!).
  25. tcc
    Jeez....how do we use the ignore function again?
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