Don

I hope you're wrong for the rest of the year! :blush:

I still think we'll end up at about 10.6C for the year. We are just about at the same CET level now as we were this time last year and I think it's likely that October, November and December will be colder than last year overall.

That is absolutely true about the snow not lasting now. During the Winters of the mid 80's (which I'm lucky enough to remember), lying snow would stay on the ground for 1 to 2 weeks before thawing. Now, like in February this year the snow barely lasted on the ground for 1 to 2 days! I think this is partly due to the distinct lack of Autumnal and Winter frosts meaning ground temperatures are high, plus the heat lag around from the general warming trend. A similar thing happened during the cold spell in February 2005. We had two weeks of generally cold weather and frequent snow falls, but the snow never accumalated to much, because it thawed so rapidly after each fall.

I suspect with that then, the Met Office will be at 14C on Saturday, as they have been running slightly higher than Philip Eden this month. Pretty much nailed that this September will be the coolest since 2001 anyway.

No, not at all. Even though the Winters of the last 10 years have been generally mild, there seems to have been a bias towards more snow in the last five years. For instance, some of us southerners had the biggest snowfall since 1991 on February 9th this year and we've had Winter 1995/6 since 1991 and not forgeting the fact that it was the second warmest on record of course! Whereas I virtually saw no snow during the Winters of the late 90's.

The Met Office only said it would be noticeably colder than last year, the second warmest Winter on record. I suspect that if the Met Office are correct with their forecast, this Winter will be typical of those of the last 10 years i.e. relatively mild. :lol:

I think the run of below average temperatures wll end in time for Winter if not before I'm sorry to say. Even in 1993, the Winter that followed was above average. IMO, 2007 has been a modern version of that year so far.

A tricky one this month. I'll go for an above average but cooler than recent Octobers CET of 11.4C.

I doubt we'll see a rise now. Weekend temperatues are predicted to be average at best. We may just see the CET level off during the last two days of the month, but that's all.

Well a Winter above the 1971-200 average can still produce some good wintry spells, so all won't be lost.

This month is slightly reminding me of September 2003, which was generally warm and dry, but had a cold end. It looks that the CET will probably come in at around 14C, which at least is an improvement on recent years, although it's been a far from ideal month IMO. My punt of 14.7C isn't looking too bad for a change after the rather poor July and August attempts.

I very much expect it will say something along the lines of; Colder and drier than last Winter, but still above the 1971-2000 average!

I doubt it and sincerely hope not!

Well I think we'll end up with an annual CET of around 10.6C on a par with 2002. This is what I predicted earlier in the year so that would be good news for some of us at least!

I think the best time for cold synoptics is late January/early February when Europe's generally at its coldest and SST's are low. The trouble with mid February onwards as we've had in recent years is that the sun is gaining strength, so any snow doesn't tend to lay for very long, and the fact that Europe is starting to warm a little too.

Interestingly, December 1934 was the joint mildest on record with December 1974 and had a of CET of 8.1C!

I agree. I can't see us getting any lower than the mid 14's this month. We only have another two weeks of September now. :huh:

Lets have another cold shot before the end of the month!

Well, if we end up a degree south of where we are now, that would make my CET prediction for this month pretty much spot on! You never know.

Awful month!!

Thought it was due around that date. Don't expect it to be any great shakes mind.

Yes it is rather strange. It seems that in the last ten years the only September's not to follow this trend are 2000 and 2001.

Well after two cooler than average months, we're now well over due a warmer than average month!

Thanks for clearing that up Paul. It makes more sense now taking into account that rolling average. With that in mind and if the CFS LRF does end up correct, we're certainly looking at another very mild Autumn, and Winter 2007/08........

Well, my view about this coming Autumn is that it will be much the same as the last few - mild or very mild with variable rainfall. Also, Winter 2007/08 is looking like being another poor one ATM (if you like it cold) according to certain long range weather forecasts. I know it's really too early to tell at this stage, but I know where I would lay my bets for this coming Winter. B)