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suffolkboy_

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Everything posted by suffolkboy_

  1. suffolkboy_
    I may be wrong but I'm pretty certain that XCweather takes it's forecasts from raw GFS output (i.e there is no human input, the data is simply what the GFS shows). These sorts of situations NEED human input. Models are simply a tool and forecasters mix this with their experience to come up with a forecast.
  2. suffolkboy_
    It makes that lifeboat look like a toy in a bath tub! Those boats are big if you have ever stood by one! I know a couple of people who volunteer for the RNLI and those guys have simply unbelievable bravery! Hats off to them, I certainly couldn't do it.
  3. suffolkboy_
    Great artist. Walk on the Wild Side is one of my all time favourite driving songs.
  4. suffolkboy_
    So you can....found the icon now
  5. suffolkboy_
    I'd just like to draw everyone's attention to my post at 11.30 this morning on the last thread. Don't like to say 'told you so' but.....told you so. It may change again but I've seen it so many times before and it looks like happening again. All models tend to shift these lows further South about 24-36 hours before. I'm not sure of the reasons behind it but it often happens. Do remember though that the models don't control the weather and there is still the possibility of this reverting back but I think this is a trend of things to come on the next few runs. Edit: Can't use the quote function because it is on the last thread which is now closed
  6. suffolkboy_
    Watch the BBC news channel (503 on Sky). There is a report on the storm on the next 15 minutes. Forecasts on there now are getting pretty confident and showing graphics for Sunday night/monday. Rain looks pretty heavy even for our region!
  7. suffolkboy_
    I think you have answered your own question! If the current forecast are correct there is a very good chance of major disruption to transport. My advice would be to keep looking at the forecasts, and keep looking on NetWeather! Things may change, but as things stand it's probably your best bet to be better safe than sorry!
  8. suffolkboy_
    Good spot. I was thinking the warning had remained largely unchanged.
  9. suffolkboy_
    It will be very interesting to see what happens! I wouldn't like to be in the shoes of the Chief Forecaster at the MetO this weekend. Situations like this can change at the last minute, even if they have been consistent for a number of days. It doesn't take a very big change in track to drastically change the forecast. I feel very sorry for the MetOffice when it does happen. We all know why the MetOffice forecast what they do, and the reasons behind a forecast going wrong. Joe public don't see this and hence the Met get a bashing unless their forecast is spot on (which is near on impossible). I for one I'm not worried, whatever will be will be. Just stay prepared for the worst and think of those more vulnerable than yourselves if the worst should happen!
  10. suffolkboy_
    The difference is the winds are forecast to be strong in areas which don't see strong winds all that often. 80mph gusts on the Isle of Skye is likely to have much less impact that say 80mph gust over Surrey. In my part of the world, we seldom see sustained winds of 40mph or gusts over 55/60mph. A couple of years ago I recorded gusts of 62mph. On the stretch of road from my village to the next (about 4 miles) there were 7 trees down and we had no power for a week. The problem is if the strong winds are seldom seen in an area, all those dead branches, weak trees and dodgy roof tiles that have sat there for some 5 or 6 years all come down in one hit!
  11. suffolkboy_
    Trust me. This is going to be nothing like 1987, nowhere near. I can't see a 122mph gust occurring anywhere in the UK this time around! I said it a couple of days ago and still stand by my thoughts now. The storm will be downgraded from what is forecast now. It will take a more southerly track. NAE has already hinted at this this morning (remember this is high resolution). Expect large changes in the forecast in the next 24 hours with the strongest of the winds being south of the UK. The south coast may still see gusts of 70mph plus but I can't see anything too extreme happening inland. By all means though, don't take the warnings any less seriously, stay prepared for the worst.
  12. suffolkboy_
    Like this one?....... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZMNqjirbWoQ
  13. suffolkboy_
    The black area signifies that it's beyond the scale of that key (i.e over 150kph, about 94mph). Do bear in mind though that is over the English Chanel where there is no shelter!
  14. suffolkboy_
    The bigger/higher sided the vehicle the worse it is. I drove my VW camper to cornwall a couple of years back and there was a fairly gusty side wind for a good few hours of the journey. I had to stop a couple of times just to rest my left arm, it ached like hell!! The side wind was probably only 30mph or so. Gusts are worse than a constant wind when driving, gusts force vehicles into other lanes with next to no warning which is obviously very dangerous. The Orwell Bridge not far from me often has speed restrictions in high winds or can even close all together (March 2008 was the last time I think).
  15. suffolkboy_
    There is a very big difference between sustained wind speeds and gusts. A catagory 1 hurricane has sustained wind speeds of 74-95mph. A catagory 2 hurricane has sustained winds of 96-110mph
  16. suffolkboy_
    The heaviest rain, as usual, is likely to be on the northern side of the low.
  17. suffolkboy_
    I don't expect this is going to be as bad as some are making out. Most models (especially the GFS) tend to over intensify these events. More often than not they are downgraded 24/36 hours beforehand. Remember that a very small change in track, even by 100 miles can make a mountain of difference to where sees the strongest of the winds. Remember that the depression hasn't even developed yet, so in the grand scheme of things a couple of hundred miles is absolutely nothing. My thoughts are for 70mph gust to effect the south coast being a 60% possibilty with much less effect further inland. Still a long way to go folks! Expect large changes by late Suturday/early Sunday!
  18. suffolkboy_
    Hence why I said it's worth keeping an eye on As always....more runs needed.
  19. suffolkboy_
    Flooding is a normal thing. People seem to think it's not normal for a river to flood. It is. I would be wary of what the models are showing for early next week. How many times have we seen a monster storm being shown, even up 24/28 hours beforehand, only for the models to back down and we end up with a watered down version. It happens nearly every autumn and 95% of the time, the models over intensify everything. Ofcourse, saying that, it's worth keeping an eye on. Severe gales on coasts certainly seem possible.
  20. suffolkboy_
    Bought my Davis Vantage Pro from them a couple of years ago. They were great. Would be a shame if they have gone!
  21. suffolkboy_
    Had the woodburner going half a dozen times so far this autumn to take the chill off. I do like a warm house though! I'm currently in the middle of getting a new oil fired boiler installed (my old one is 15 years old with about 65% efficiency, the new one is 98% efficient!). Also having a new woodburner with a larger back boiler which will heat the radiators to get the warmth around the house - free heat! I'm thinking about getting an air source heat pump which would do all of my hot water in summer and also help with the heating in winter. Anybody got any experience of them? I know they have been around for a while but people are only just starting to have them installed for domestic use.
  22. suffolkboy_
    Well, everything has panned out quite differently to the forecast. Rather than a whole day of rain for the east, it's cleared out for the best part of the day. Had 9.2mm of rain here. I see the MetOffice soon took the warnings down! More rain to come tonight though.
  23. suffolkboy_
    There is one up from the Met for tonight, however I think they are quite unsure where is going to see most. Wouldn't be surprised to see a warning for Sunday go up tomorrow morning or maybe even later tonight. Some places can cope with 2 inches rainfall in a couple of days no problem. In my part of the world it's rare to have a day with over an inch of rain, might happen once a year at most.
  24. suffolkboy_
    Looks like a pretty wet weekend. Rain throughout tonight, maybe becoming lighter tomorrow, but then it now looks like re-intensifying again on Sunday going by the latest BBC forecast. Could be some surface water flooding by the end of the weekend!
  25. suffolkboy_
    Flood warnings now in force for coastal areas, with flooding expected at Walcott and possible along much of the Norfolk and Suffolk coastline. If I didn't have work so early I would head down to the coast to have a look! I remember the water getting very close at Aldeburgh a few years ago, quite a sight! Hopefully nobody get's flooded out though! http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/flood-warnings/ea#?tab=floodWarningsDetail
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