Gavin P

The distinct line in a cloud that usually forms as a cold front is moving through.

Heres plenty of information on the 1833/1834 eruption of Laki, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laki The CET for July 1833 was 18.8 - One of the hottest months on record. Many people died across Europe from poisionous sulpher clouds and the sky turned red with a deadly haze then hanging over the UK and Europe until autumn. Then in winter the weather across Europe and North America became severely cold and the climate stayed extreme for the next decade (some actually believe that the seeds of the French revolution were sowed by the eruption of Laki and the resultant extreme weather leading to famines and poverty) Icelandic volcanos do very much have the power the effect our weather in the UK and Europe and even through the northern hemipshere. They probably can't effect the entire planet, like an equatorial volcano can, but they shouldn't be underestimated.

Thanks very much Roger. Sounds like a very interesting winter with something for everybody. January obviously being the highlight for cold/snow lovers.

^^^^^^^^^^ That looks remarkably similar to Rogers forecast.

Thanks Roger. Sounds an interesting winter to say the least.

According to The Sunday Times: "The warning (of another cold winter) coincides with research from the Met Office suggesting that Europe could be facing a return of the "little ice age" that gripped Britain 300 years ago, causing decades of bitter winters. The prediction, to be published in Nature is based on observations showing a slight fall in the sun's emissions of utraviolet radiation, which over a long period may trigger mini ice ages in Europe." Obviously we need to wait until we see the piece in Nature, but this does look like a significant annoucement may be coming from the Met Office in due course. (Incidentally, theres no link because Sunday Times online content is behind a paywall. I copied this directly from the copy of the Sunday Times I bought this morning)

To be fair, even if the grit stockpiles aren't used this winter, they will almost certainly be needed in the coming years as solar activity probably becomes extremely weak or even non existent in the second half of the decade...

At times February 1947 actually had high pressure stretching fron Russia to Greenland to Canada.

Increasing my guess to 11.0, thanks.

I suspect what Jim is getting at is that the pattern shift that we've all flagged on here as taking place since 2007/2008 is still very much in place. I.E. generally cool summers and cold winters. Which doesn't mean that the coming winter WILL be cold, but does mean the risk of another negative NAO/AO winter is greater than in the 90's or the early 00's.

Nice to see GP back posting again. Sounds like this winter might turn out more like 54/55 or 55/56 (the 1950's seem like the best overall match to the current period with regards to the PDO, AMO and La Nina) with any cold more in the mid to later part of winter with a milder early period?

10.0 thanks.

The autumn of 1978 didn't see so much as a frost until it suddenly turned exceptionally cold in the last five days of November.

Sounds an fairly exciting end to the year.

I ended up with over 20cm of snow in February 2009, the greatest snowfall depth since 1991. Though I was extremely lucky because I was right on the boundry line (went roughly from Bristol to the Wash) between the cold air to the north and the slightly less cold air to the south-east and as a result I managed to achive three seperate heavy snow events in the space of four days - One of those situations where the battle lines happened to set up right over my house. So for snow, 2008/2009 easily beats 2009/2010 and 2010/2011, though clearly those later two winters were much colder.

LOL! Thanks. I'm not sure Roger would want us to read too much into that at this stage.

Interesting. Can you point me towards Rogers thoughts please?

Well given this northerly displaced Azores High has been a semi-permanant feature since May, I think its very unlikely to last in its present form all the way through autumn and winter. That would be like 9 months for one singularity. Would be very unusual to say the least. No, the synoptic will change over the next few months - For good or ill...

LOL! Well, the high pressure to the extreme north-east is indeed the start of the Siberian High forming. The high in the Atlantic is simply the displaced Azores High which has been sitting roughly in that position all summer.

Worth pointing out that although we have had two Christmas's with much of the country covered with snow, we still haven't had a Christmas Day with widespread, heavy, falling snow on the big day itself (thinking 1927 for instance) So, theres still something to ask Santa for.

How about; "Will we ever have a hot summer again?"

About the poll above. By "first snowfall" we are talking about over the Scottish Mountains yes? Not in the middle of London or Birmingham?

Yep, the predicted warm spell from tomorrow to Tuesday is looking increasingly medicore. Afterwards it seems cool and unsettled. Could easily see it sub 16 now.

I think it will be an unusually unsettled month (than we've been used to since 2000) Of course in Piers world this means floods of biblical preportions, wind storms to rival hurricanes and tornados spinning across the nation.

With downward corrections, I don't think we can entirely rule out finishing sub 16. It will depend on the final week.