Gavin P

Hey all, Here's today model based video looking at next weeks very warm temperatures; http://gavsweathervids.com/ Looking nice. Mid to upper 20's at least.

Thanks. That GEM really threw in a curve ball from around 168-240hrs. Normally I wouldn't take too much notice, but I don't think the ECM 00z was far away from resolving in a similar direction. 12z will be interesting.

Here's today's model based video musing - Still Looking Warmer And Drier Next Week: http://gavsweathervids.com/ I would say however, questions remain as to how extensive this improvement will be and how long its going to last.

Hey guys, Here's my latest historic weather video looking at one of the most infamous summers of the 20th Century: A Cold, Wet, Washout - The Summer Of 1954 http://gavsweathervids.com You can check this and all my other historic weather videos out on my historic page; http://gavsweathervids.com/historical.html Thanks as ever for your support.

Evening all, Just done a very quick video looking at this evenings torrential rain and storms; http://gavsweathervids.com/ (its the top video of the three) Some pretty extreme weather coming up

Here's todays Model Based 8-10 Day Video Musing; A Taste Of Summer For The Last Week Of July? http://gavsweathervids.com/ Growing confidence of some decent weather coming up.

Hey all, Looks like we've got another pretty significant rainfall even to come across England and Wales from today through to Saturday as weather fronts once again become slow moving and stuck; http://www.wetterzen...pics/brack0.gif http://www.wetterzen...ics/brack0a.gif http://www.wetterzen...pics/brack1.gif Rainfall particularly focused around Wales, the Midlands, parts of East Anglia and south-east England. NAE model forecasting 30-50mm in total over the next 48hrs; http://www.weatheron...M=0&PERIOD== Given the recent deluge, you would expect a flood risk once more? Inevitably my latest video deals with the latest heavy rainfall event: http://www.gavsweathervids.com/

Thanks for your kind words Alex. I think we WILL get a couple of better days Monday and Tuesday, but beyond that looking increasingly dodgy for Wed-Fri, IMO. ECM 240hr chart looks poor, to say the least; http://www.wetter-ze...cs/Recm2401.gif

Here's todays model based 8-10 day video musing: Settled Weather For Late July? MAYBE! http://gavsweathervids.com/

Thanks Damian. Good choices, all of them! I only do these historic videos occasionally, so I'll not be able to do all of those years this summer, but I'm sure over the next few years they'll all find their way on to GavsWeatherVids.

LOL! That was a good call by you then John.

Thanks Polar.

Hey all, here's my latest historic video: http://www.gavsweathervids.com You can watch this video and all my other historic videos here: http://gavsweathervi...historical.html Thanks for your support.

The BCC 500mbr height anomaly (the model I based my improving July forecast on) now looks pretty dreadful for the next 30 days; http://cmdp.ncc.cma.gov....2/MD2012072GL_H5M1_1.GIF Has to be big doubts on a general imrpvement for July now?

LOL! Dreadful 8-10 day means from ECM/GFS; http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_12z/hgtcomp.html Blocking over Greenland, trough over UK and W. Europe and jet down into south of France. Can it get any worse in high summer?

Rank: Advanced Member Joined: 05/04/2006 Posts: 15,621 Check out the ECM/GFS 8-10 day means; http://www.meteo.psu.edu...i/ECMWF_12z/hgtcomp.html If theres ever been a worst mean for "high summer" I'd like to see it

Here's todays brief video looking at todays rain for Northern England and Mids; http://www.gavsweathervids.com/

Hey all, My video today, inevitably, deals with tomorrows rainfall event; http://gavsweathervids.com/ E/A, Lincs, Mids, Wales, and N. Eng in the firing line, but might change.

Here's todays 8-10 Day model based musing video: http://www.gavsweathervids.com/ Overall staying unsettled and cool towards mid month.

Hello folks, Here's my July Month Ahead Forecast: http://gavsweathervids.com/monthly.html The call is for an "average" month (not sure I really believe it myself, but thats what the model predicts) At the end theres a very quick sneak peak at August, also.

Can I lower my guess to 15.3 please? If it means I'll get a penalty I'll stick with 16.0 Sorry to be pain.

In my week ahead forecast today I really just went for Monday to be a proper wet day in terms of cloud and persistent rain. Tuesday onwards I have down as showery and those showery conditions persist until Friday at least. Maybe another spell of general (thundery) rain moving north Wednesday into Thursday? But much of the time this week I think we're looking at mainly convective rainfall, which means inevitably some places will get a lot of rain and some places will get luckey and have several days of mainly dry weather. Though really its another geneally pretty uninspiring week in the summer of 2012. GFS ensemble looks very poor overall; http://www.wetterzen...chester_ens.png Time is beginning to tick on now...

Might not bode well for cold lovers, but bodes well for my NAO forecast, SB.

A tad below average, but not a disaster; 16.0

Interesting discrepency between GFS and NAE for late tonight and tomorrow morning NAE wants to take an area of pretty heavy rain from Bristol to The Humber in the morning; http://www.weatheronline...ES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= http://www.weatheronline...ES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= GFS doesn't really show much at all. Maybe some showers over East Anglia by lunchtime, but certainly nothing that significant; http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn124.png http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn184.png Unusual to have a differance like that at such a short time out.