Gavin P

The consistently cool temperatures have been pretty shocking. June 1991 was the last that I can remember being quite this consistently cold and wet.

Hello folks, This is one of those weeks wher I just have to put my hands up and say the weather has got me pretty much stumped! Thanks as always.

Thanks Phil Latest Met 30 day update actually sounds a lot worse than our Thoughts with a another very unsettled spell setting up from next week to the end of the month.

Here's today's model based video musing; Improvements Next Week, but Will It Last? http://gavsweathervids.com Starts off with a few words about todays "one in fifty year event"

As already stated, if the weather from late January to the late March had occured from late June to late August we'd have had an exceptionally hot, dry and sunny summer. It's just how the cookie crumbles, I'm afraid. Sooner or later the right synoptics WILL occur in the right months and we'll have a hot summer. On average we get two warmer, drier and sunnier than average summers a decade (the 1960's didn't have any, whilst the 1990's had 6) so a good one should come along soon enough (its still possible this summer could even turn out to be a good one believe it or not)

Hey guys, Heres my video on the up and coming stormy weather;

Hey all, Here's today's model based musing video for the end of June. An improving picture; http://gavsweathervids.com/ BCC weeklies look quite good for the last week of June and first week of July, but not sure it'll last too long?

Here's my latest update video on Todays rain event; http://www.gavsweathervids.com/

I've done a video about tonights potential torrential rain event for the S/E; http://gavsweathervids.com/

Hey all, I'm starting an ASK GAV feature, where I basically throw a video open to your questions. Detail is in todays video: http://gavsweathervids.com/ If its a sucess I'll do more occasionally, but its really down to you guys. Thanks Seven. Glad you enjoyed.

Hello folks, Video week ahead forecast is here: http://gavsweathervids.com/ (for today) And here http://gavsweathervi.../forecasts.html Written version is here: http://gavsweathervi...htsmusings.html The video contains a bit of info about the jet stream this week. If folks would like to see more information Re. the jet in subsequents forecasts let me know via here or the comment box. Thanks a lot, have a great week.

Thanks Phil. If we're lucky the low will cut off over Biscay or Portugal, but given how this June is going it'll pan out exctly as the models are showing this morning.

Here's todays model based video: Very Wet And Possibly Thundery Late Next Week? http://gavsweathervids.com/ Overall I still think we're still looking for a ridge to develop for the later stage of June, but certainly a big complication possible later next week and assuming this new depression comes off as modelled today we're now staring down the barrel of an exceptionally wet June.

Hey thanks.

Hey all, My model based video musing today is looking at the chance of an improvement in the weather beyond ten days (so from around 17th-20th) All very tentative though.

Thanks Aaron. I hope the Mod's don't mind me posting these threads, LOL!

Hello everyone, Here's my month ahead forecast for June 2012 (plus a little recap/verification for May) http://www.gavsweathervids.com/monthly.html Many thanks.

Hello everyone, My latest historic weather video - Fire And Ice - The Summer Of 1975 - is here: http://www.gavsweathervids.com/historical.html

Thanks Phil. Yep, it is looking like an extended unsettled spell. Proper June/European monsoon type weather, really.

Hello everyone, Thought you might like to check out my week ahead forecast. My video version here: http://gavsweathervids.com/ and here: http://gavsweathervi.../forecasts.html The written version is here: http://gavsweathervi...htsmusings.html I do a week ahead forecast every Saturday and a 5 day forecast on a Wednesday. In between I do european, events, musings, monthly and seasonal outlooks and ocasionally ENSO related stuff as well. Thanks a lot.

Very good forecast. Great piece of work.

Thanks John. Well, on the CFS point, I was really talking about the entire Northern Hemisphere apparently not having a positive or negative height anomaly anywhere. Of course its possibe that the CFS thought the whole northern hemipshere would be "average" but I do remain quite suspicious of the CFS model. I just don't find it that stable if you know what I mean. On past - and + NAO forecasts and how they verified, the Met Office had/has a fantastic graph going back some 20 years or more with their NAO predictions and verification included. I really, really wanted to include it in the video as I felt it would be really useful, but when I contacted the Office to try and get the link to the page they told me I'd have to pay £75+VAT for the information. Anyway, I'd love to do more on the NAO and May SST connection (I couldn't do anymore in this video as my voice was about to give out at any moment, lol) so watch this space.

Thanks guys. As I say at the end of the video, there are a LOT of differant things you can look at in terms of trying to get a winter forecast together (Siberian snow cover, solar, ENSO, etc..) and most of them don't even begin to to come on to the radar until September at the earliest. The NAO forecast from May's Atlantic SST anomalies is just one part of the puzzle (though the Met Office clearly believed/believe that its quite an important part as aside from their dynamic model this seemed to be their main methodolgy in terms of making winter forecast predictions) So yes, all to play for is a fair description.

Hey guys, It's that time of year again when we can use May's Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies to attempt to come up with a possible NAO forecast for the subsequent winter. This years Atlantic temperature anomaly points towards a Positive NAO for winter 2012/2013! Find out why and how in my video presentation, which you can see here: http://gavsweathervids.com (just for today) And here: http://gavsweathervi...m/seasonal.html The closest match I could find to May 2012's Atlantic SST anomalies was May 2000, which is interesting because the Met Office forecast a strongly positive NAO for winter 2000/2001, but we actually ended up with a slightly negative NAO in the end (probably because of the unusual autumn weather pattern we had in 2000)

Hey, thanks for posting Alex.