Gavin P

Hi everyone, Here's the video I did earlier looking at the hot and possible thundery weather from Sun-Tue; http://gavsweathervids.com/

Hi everyone. Here's todays model based video looking at the weather for the second half of August; http://www.gavsweathervids.com/ Looks like we'll be turning increasingly cool and unsettled after the heat over the weekend. More of a gradual slide in temps than a dramatic plunge though?

"Mid-August to mid-September 2012. General Comments: Pulses of warm, sub-tropical air continue to come up from the south bringing mixed, humid weather. Progressively however, there should be a trend for winds to turn into a north-easterly quarter, although how this manifests itself remains a little uncertain at present. As a result, confidence is somewhat lower. The August prediction remains good, despite strange displacements and a weakening of a sometimes non-existent "Jet Stream" in the vicinity of our shores. Similar circumstances in the past follow the solar cycle quite well, with comparable years showing anticyclones over Greenland into early autumn. This is uncommon as the mean pressure at this time of year over the huge island, is usually at its lowest. More detailed summaries: Events should normally be within a day or so. August 16th to 19th: Unsettled and windy at first in the north and west, with occasional rain or showers. Very warm or hot and humid in the east and south, where finer spells could lift temperatures to 28 to 30C. It will not be entirely settled though, with the risk of locally sharp showers and perhaps thunderstorms. There will be humid "sticky" nights when temperatures will not fall below 13 to 19C. August 20th to 22nd: A finer spell particularly in central and eastern areas, where further very warm afternoons are expected. It may feel slightly fresher though at least for a time, with top temperatures 23 to 26C in the east and south and 18 to 22C in the north and west. The nights will remain very mild, with minimum temperatures mostly in the range 13 to 17C. August 23rd to 26th: Warm and humid in the east and south at first, but more generally unsettled and somewhat cooler later. There will be occasional rain or showers giving heavier bursts, with a risk of thunder mostly at first. Maximum temperatures could be 17 to 26C falling to 15 to 20C, but the nights should remain very mild with minimum values say 11 to 16C...." http://www.gavsweathervids.com/terryscholey.html

Here's my latest video with a detailed look at stormy Wednesday; http://gavsweathervids.com/ Worst of the weather seems to be in central and western parts?

I think it will settle (at least in the south) for the final week or ten days of the month, but I'm also thinking it will become cooler - GFS ensembles keep showing a notable slide in temperature for the final ten days of the month; http://www.wetterzen..._London_ens.png Maybe dry and bright with temps around 20c by day and 10c by night? Would be quite a nice spell of late summer/early autumn weather

Hi all, Here's todays model based video: Soaking Rain On Wednesday: http://www.gavsweathervids.com/ Quite an unusual event to say the least (if it comes off as progged) with 15c+ 850's fueling an intense area of low pressure just to the south-west approaches

Hi all, I've done a video examining the chance of a thundery Sunday; http://gavsweathervids.com/ From what I can see we definately have a risk of thundery showers or thunderstorms on Sunday - More especially for Wales, the Midlands and Northern England, but I'm not sure I'm seeing much evidence of a severe or classic spell of thundery weather? That said, we haven't got the Hi-Res models in for Sunday yet, so it remains to be seen which way they jump when we get them in later today and tomorrow.

Here's todays much delayed (thanks YouTube) model based video: Next Weeks Weather Up In The Air? http://www.gavsweathervids.com/ Trough to the west/Ridge to the east = A lot of uncertainty.

Just done a quick video looking at the risk of a thundery breakdown this weekend; http://gavsweathervids.com/ Beyond this, we seem to be looking at quite a deep trough to the west and a ridge to the east - As shown on the 8-10 Day 500mbr heights; http://www.meteo.psu...0z/hgtcomp.html Pattern looks as though its starting to reflect El Nino a little bit more now?

Hello everybody; Just want to point out that you can now read the awesome Terry Scholey's latest monthly weather forecasts at my website: http://gavsweathervids.com/terryscholey.html Terry updates his forecasts twice a month on the 1st and the 15th, so keep a look out. Thanks Gavin

Hey all, Here's todays model based 8-10 day video musing; Improvements Ahead: http://gavsweathervids.com/ Some drier and warmer weather may well be on the way, but could take quite a few days to pick up. Suspect we'll have a lot of cloud through next week and may even have weather fronts stuck underneath the developing anticyclone, so don't expect immediate wall to wall sunshine and hot temps.

Hello folks, Here's the month ahead forecast for August: http://gavsweathervids.com/monthly.html A cooler and wetter than average August is favoured, unfortunately.

Hi all, Here's todays 8-10 Day model based video: Cool And Unsettled To The Middle Of August? http://gavsweathervids.com/ All looking rather grim unfortunately.

14.8 Please.

Here's todays 8-10 Day model based ideo musing: Very Unsettled Weather Coming Back: http://gavsweathervids.com/ Overall, low pressure back in control next week.

Yes true. I was talking more about those huge, autumnal areas of low pressure pushing through that we've seen a lot of through June and July Byt yes, of course the showers could be pretty intense.

I wonder if the front may be quite weak in the end. Lets hope so.

Here's my 8-10 day model based video musing: http://www.gavsweathervids.com/ Overall I think the models are pretty clear that we're going back to cool and unsettled (not the deluge of June and most of July probably, but unsettled) from the weekend and into next week.

Hey thanks, thats very nice of you. Let's here it for amateurs, hey?

I've been running through the BCC weeklies and to be honest August 2012 is looking rather disappointing to say the least. Certainly no sign of anything as good as we've got this week. Here's the mean 500mbr chart for August; http://cmdp.ncc.cma....75GL_H5M2_1.GIF Not that inspiring.

Here's today's video examining the possibility of thunderstorms Friday into Saturday; http://gavsweathervids.com/ As ever the risk of thunder in the UK is uncertain, but the threat is there.

Thanks Sun.

Hey all, Here's my latest autumn 2012 forecast/model round up; http://www.gavsweathervids.com/seasonal.html Some conflicting signals showing up, but cutting through those signals, I think we may have some quite interesting patterns showing up. Theres also another little sneak peak at the end for winter 12/13.

Here's this mornings model based video today; Next Weeks "Improvements" Causing A Headache: http://gavsweathervids.com/ Whilst its only GFS that brings the trough down over us from the north next Thu-Fri, ECM wouldn't take much of a adjustment to go in the same direction (and the trough moving into Scandinavia does turn it cooler at the end of next week anyway) Then again GEM looks great. As I say, its a bit headache inducing this morning.

Most of the Pro Met's do favour ECM over GFS because it verifies better. They also get to see a whole wealth of information that http://www.ecmwf.int thinks us plebs who actually pay for the thing aren't entitled to see. So, regular weather watchers often favour GFS because we are able to see all the information assocated with that model, where-as the pro met's favour ECM because overall its a better model and they see lots of stuff we don't.