Gavin P

That forecast from Accuweather definetly looks "El Nino" driven, but I would urge caution on this because as I explain in my video El Nino just doesn't see to be getting going this year. Theres still time for it to develop, but if it carries on as it is we'll be looking at an ENSO neutral winter most likely.

Hi all, Here's my first winter 2012/2013 round-up.; http://www.gavsweathervids.com/seasonal.html I explore SST's, solar activity and ice and snow cover to see how things are currently developing. Very early days of course, so more updates will follow throughout the autumn. At the weekend I'll be having a look at the seasonal models to see what they are showing. Thanks all.

Thanks Damian. Yep, it is shocking to see that -5c 850 isotherm over the country in September - Especially considering just a few days earlier we'd had 850's of 15c+ Don't you just love crazy British weather?

Hi everyone, Here's my latest historic weather vid looking at the shockingly hot and cold autumn of 1919; http://www.gavsweathervids.com/historical2.html Thanks for your support.

Hi all, Here's Terry Scholey's mid September to Mid October weather forecast; http://www.gavsweathervids.com/terryscholey.html TERRY SCHOLEY WEATHER SERVICE Latest thoughts mid-September to mid-October 2012 General Comments: The period towards mid-September has been more mobile than originally thought, but the promised warmer, drier than average month has certainly materialised so far. The reminder of September should also follow the original forecast quite well, with perhaps brief tastes of "Indian" summer into the final week in the east and south. It will eventually become more unsettled however, with showers giving thunder in places towards month end. Confidence remains medium to high. The confidence for the first half of October though is somewhat lower, as the situation is a little more confused. A fair amount of quiet, mainly dry autumnal weather is suggested giving some dull, misty days but there could also appearances of St Luke's little summer in the east and south. There will be some rain at times as well though, with the end of the first week briefly looking particularly unsettled. September 16th to 20th: Westerly breezes give a north/south split. Windy at times over Scotland and in the north with occasional showers, but there will also be some dry weather giving sunny spells especially in the east. Central and southern areas could see the odd shower, but here it should be mainly dry with sunny spells. It will feel chilly in the wind at times in all areas, but eastern and southern parts will have some pleasantly warm afternoons. Top temperatures say 14 to 19C, with minimum values 2 to 8C bringing the risk of ground frost to some sheltered northern valleys. September 21st to 25th: Quieter at least for a time, with a mix of cloud and sunny spells after the clearance of early mist and patchy fog. The east and south could have brief tastes of "Indian Summer" but there will be some showers mostly over Ireland and in the west. Later it could become more generally unsettled, with locally heavy showers. Maximum temperatures should be 15 to 18C in the west, while the odd day in the east and south-east could see 22 to 24C being reached. The nights should be milder, with minimum values between about 9 and 14C. September 26th to 30th: Generally unsettled with showers locally heavy and prolonged giving thunder in places. There will be brighter spells however giving sunny intervals especially in the east and south, after the clearance of early mist or fog patches. Although gradually becoming cooler, temperatures should be well up to normal reaching say 14 to 19C, with minimum values mostly between 7 and 12C... To read the rest please click here: http://www.gavsweathervids.com/terryscholey.html

Yes, I remember the CFS 700mbr anomaly charts really started getting the signal for 09/10 around September 09 and certainly by October the signal was strong. Wasn't there a little wobble during the very mild and wet November though?

Hi all, Here's todays model based video musing looking at the weather for the second half of September; http://gavsweathervids.com/ A "mixed" picture - Thinking the last week of September may turn cool and unsettled, but confidence is low.

Here's my summer 2012 forecast verification video; http://gavsweathervids.com/seasonal.html The temperature forecast ended up only a little higher than verified, but the precipitation forecast was a complete bust. Thanks all.

Ah I'm with you now. Thanks Ian. Sorry Syed. I hope you don't mind if I PM you?

Sorry guys I set the privacy of the video to private when it was uploading last night. Its now public. Sorry once again.

Oh, I'm not sure what the problem is then? YouTube vids should play on all PC Browsers? I've found Google Chrome to be the most stable browser, but YouTube videos should play on all PC's and browsers.

Hi folks, I've just released my September month ahead forecast, which you can see here; http://www.gavsweathervids.com/monthly.html Looks like a nice month with warmer and drier than average being favoured - Though my August forecast wasn't good. Thanks for your support. Enjoy.

Are you trying to watch on an i-phone? I have has some feedback that the vids are hard to play on i-phones. Unfortunately thats YouTube's fault and theres nothing I can do. I may launch an app next year though.

Heres a video I've created just exploring some of things I like to keep an eye on through the autumn in terms of creating a winter forecast; What Goes Into A Winter Forecast? http://www.gavsweath...m/seasonal.html Hope you all find it informative.

Pure guess - 14.5

Hi all, http://www.gavsweathervids.com/terryscholey.html "September 2012 Final Update." General Comments: A drier and warmer than average September seems likely particularly over central, eastern and southern areas, with just brief cooler intervals occasionally "feeding down" from the north. It could also be a sunnier than normal month, especially over England and Wales. Current weather patterns are suggesting that on the whole the first and the third weeks should provide the driest conditions, with changeable weather most likely towards mid-month and at the end. There is still some doubt as to the pressure pattern around mid-September, as several key years in the past came up with different results. One particular September of interest was that of 1879, that like this year followed one of the wettest summers on record. It is also a particularly good lunar match and to some extent is close to the current phase of the solar cycle. Confidence is medium to high, with the timing of weather events likely to be within a couple of days. The next update will be the mid-September to mid-October prediction. September 1st to 6th: Predominantly dry, particularly in central and southern areas, with some warm sunshine although cloud amounts will vary. Breezier and more unsettled over Scotland particularly the north and west and at times over Northern Ireland, with occasional rain or showers. Temperatures will be close to normal in the north say 15 to 17C by day, but above average in the south and east with some very warm afternoons when 23 to 25C could be reached. The nights generally will be mild, with minimum values mostly between 7 and 13C. September 7th to 9th: A few showers perhaps over north and east Scotland at first, otherwise staying mainly dry with perhaps some quite sunny days. Scotland and Northern Ireland should also be noticeably brighter, but it could be somewhat cooler and fresher with chillier nights. Top temperatures in the north should be 13 to 16C and in the south 18 to 20C, with minimum values say 5 to 10C giving a risk of ground frost mostly in the north. September 10th to 15th: Some intervals of warm sunshine but probably increasingly hazy, with more in the way of cloud and early mist or fog patches. Also an increased risk of showers particularly towards mid-month, when some locally could be heavy perhaps giving thunder. Feeling warmer or milder, with top temperatures 16 to 18C in the north and 19 to 24C in the south. The nights should also be milder, with minimum temperatures mostly in the range 8 to 13C.... Click here for the rest: : http://www.gavsweathervids.com/terryscholey.html

Hi all, Here's todays model based video: Rapidly Alternating Airmasses Heralds The Arrival Of Autumn; http://www.gavsweathervids.com I mention ex-hurricane Lee a couple of times, but I mean Hurricane Kirk - My little "helper" was distracting me. Sorry about that.

I wonder if they'll start setting the CET against 81-10 from next year?

Thanks Damian. I suspect at some point (probably next year now) I'll do the whole of summer 1995 (from May to October)

Morning all, Here's my latest historic video: 100f And Hurricane Charley; http://www.gavsweathervids.com/historical2.html Looks at three epic (notorious) Augusts - 1990, 2003 and 1986! Thanks all.

Yes, the temperature signal is quite conclusively for a below average autumn. Precipitation signal is much less strong (as I explain the vid, thats usually the case with long range models) and the stormier autumn than we've been used to recently idea really comes from my own musing/hunch.

Hello folks, Here is my final autumn 2012 weather forecast video; http://www.gavsweathervids.com/seasonal.html The pattern for the autumn looks quite uncertain, but there is a pattern emerging for temperature if nothing else. If you stick around to the end there is a little sneak peak at winter. From September we'll be counting down to winter 2012/2013 properly

Hi all, Here's todays model based video: (With Caveats) Warm And Dry For Start Of September? http://gavsweathervids.com/ Has a full run-down on todays and the weekends weather, but you may want to skip that bit.

Incredible differance between ECM and GFS at 240hrs; http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm2401.gif http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn2401.png Thats the kind of variation we often see at this time of year, probably because the models struggle modelling tropical developments?

Hi all, Here's todays model based video musing; Very Unsettled End To Summer: http://gavsweathervids.com/ Looks as though we're going into quite a zonal set-up. Wonder if this will set the tone for autumn?