Gavin P

GFS and UKMO 12z have that look of big thundery showers and storms from the cut off; http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1444.png http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rukm1441.gif Now, when cut off's get invoved the models have all sorts of problems, so this might not be a done deal yet, BUT as it stands this evening (still waiting for ECM of course) expect some VERY big showers, thunderstorms, lightning, hail, tornado's and flooding in the south next week

Here's todays Model Based 8-10 Day Friday Musing: http://gavsweathervids.com More Thunderstorms Next Week?

Just done a quick video rounding up todays dramatic events; The End Of Thundery Thursday: http://gavsweathervids.com/

Let me leave you once again with a link to my video forecast; http://gavsweathervids.com Signing off for the afternoon. If you've got storms or you get them enjoy them. Remember to stay safe in any flash floods and be careful with lightning. Enjoy.

Storms just passing to the north of here.

Just wondering if that area of storms across the C. Midlands might actually get to me.

Here's my video today, about the storms obviousy: http://gavsweathervids.com/ Definately a Midlands and Northern England event for once.

I believe the sea surface temperature anomalies that occur in May have a tendency to re-occur in the subsequent winter. How that happens and what the mechanism is that cause's it, I don't know I'm afraid.

Well it was used by the UK Met Office for years (still is as far as I know, just they don't make their findings public anymore after the media bullied them into silence ) in conjunction with the long range dynamic model. I agree though, I certainly don't see NAO forecast as the be all and end all. I definately wouldn't want to resolve an entire winter forecast around this one prediction.

We look at the SST's in May with a view to how the Atlantic *MAY* force the atmosphere in winter. The things that dictate the NAO in winter are not the same as the things that dictate the NAO in May - Remember April and May will usually have more northerly and easterly winds than any other time of year due to the decline of the westerlies which is a common occurance in spring, primarily because the arctic is warming and the PV is breaking down. Indeed. Its just one part (small, big?) of the puzzle. No more, no less. Thanks. Just one point I'd like to make. If the sea surface temperature anomaly had indicated a negative NAO for the subsequent winter (in other words if there had been the warm, cold, warm tripole) I'd have called it that way. So this isn't a "balance of probability" or "no brainer" call but a genuine attempt to use May's SST's anomalies to predict the NAO next winter. Whether you think theres any merrit in this particular methodology or not is of course up to you.

Here's todays model based 8-10 day musing looking at the first week of July; http://gavsweathervids.com/ Looks like a pretty "average" period coming up, so not terribly exciting, but an improvement compared to June.

My video today looks at the possibililty of Thundery Thursday for the UK : http://gavsweathervids.com/ Looks like there could be some pretty interesting, unstable weather to say the least.

Thanks Seven.

Hello folks, Here's this week's week ahead forecast: http://gavsweathervids.com/ Written version is here: http://gavsweathervi...om/written.html And heres my autumn forecast for those that haven't seen it yet: http://gavsweathervi...m/seasonal.html As ever thanks for your support.

And straight the way GFS 12z removes next weeks brief warm up! Its one of those summers isn't it?

Thanks Robbie. Some real bobby dazzler charts there from CFS.

BCC 500mbr anomaly for July doesn't look terribly inspiring; http://cmdp.ncc.cma.gov....5/MD2012065GL_H5M2_1.GIF Suggestion of troughiness around the UK and a ridge in the Atlantic = Cool and unsettled?

Hey all, Here's today's model based video musing: Turning Very Warm (briefly) Next Week; http://GavsWeatherVids.com Maybe up to 80f in the extreme by Friday?

Here's my video on todays events; http://gavsweathervids.com/ Mainly focuses on the rain risk over the next 24-48hrs, but definately the chance of thunderstorms from the south this afternoon.

Here's todays model based 8-10 day video musing: Make The Most Of Today And Tomorrow: Overall the models are painting a very cool and unsettled picture even out into July, by which time summer will be really starting to tick on...

It certainly is isn't it? You'd need some lagging round pipes if that came off. But remember, its JFF right now. If its still showing a similar anomaly in September we can start getting interested.

Hey folks, Here's my first forecast video for autumn 2012: http://gavsweathervids.com/seasonal.html Long range models generally painting a picture for a rather cool autumn at the moment, though its very early days. BTW, if you stick around to the end theres a little sneak peak at winter 12/13 - JFF Next months autumn 2012 update should have a better handle on where things might be going.

Thanks Damian.

My month ahead forecast went for a cooler and wetter than average first half to June, with an improvement in the final week to ten days (but not enough to stop the month overall being cooler and wetter than average) http://gavsweathervids.com/monthly.html Not sure I saw it being *quite* as dreadful as its been, but the anomaly was pretty striking. Only thing now is that I'm getting worried about the "improvement" side.

Not sure how to get hold of this, but I just saw this shocking statstic posted by Brummie Snowman at TWO: Here's a shocking statistic Sunshine Jan 1-15: 51.6 hours Sunshine June 1-15: 33.9 hours (sunshine hours from Coleshill)