NorthYorksWeather
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Posts posted by NorthYorksWeather
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lovely picture Paul, fully agree its been a great summer
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il go for 14.6 B)
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Here are three from western Canada on a recent storm chase, some others can be seen on the storm chase thread --
lovely pics rogers, the snowy mountains just top them off aswell
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Just like previous winters, this one has the potential to be a cold one if all of the pieces fall into place.
The difference, IMO, in this winter is that it has the potential to be very cold indeed, perhaps on a par (dare I say it?) with 1978/79.
Consider the factors that already appear to be in our favour:
1) The probability of a highly negative GLAAM, which I don't fully understand but I gather that a highly negative figure can point towards a very blocked or very zonal pattern (see below).
2) The distinct possibility of a -ve NAO signal for this winter, particularly later in the season.
3) The fact that this winter falls within the Hale Cycle (although it could be next year.
4) The fact that due to the cool and wet summer may result in lower soil temperatures.
However, all of these positives may be overridden by the AO signal. If the AO is positive then we will be in for a 1988/89 style winter which was not altogther different from last winter :unsure: . Alternatively, if the AO is negative then batten down the hatches as it could be one to remember!!
:unsure: I like the sound of a winter on par with 1978/1979
That would do me just nicely
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Heres mine
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16.3 for me
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another thunderstorm just passed over, lasted longer than the previous one although not as intense rainfall, thsi is turning out to be a great summer
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great storm just passed over york, frequent lightning with triple forked flashes included, alot of loud long thunder, i filmed it with my cam so will put a link to the video later, meanwhile enjoy the rest of the storms
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hmm quite worrying, looks like alot less ice compared to this time last year,our side of the artic looks liek it doing well but the other side looks like its deteoriating rapidly, is this due to all the warm air coming out of the north canada/alaska area?
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Totally agree there Persian, people shouldnt get there hopes up too high as anything could change in the next few months
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lots of lightning and thunder here in York, very large lightning flashes every minute or so, bit scary but great to watch
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so does that mean we are going to have a winter similar to 62/63?
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great to here skifreak, looking forward to seeeing the pictures, wohhoo snow on 26th of june in mid summer, quite astonishing really
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im pleased someone has posted a topic like this, it has really lightened up my day, thanks summer blizzard, i reckon we will see the first snow in the cairngorms around october 20th and the 1st snow in york november 14th, fingers crossed for a good winter, WOHHOO
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yes here in york it has been raining continuosly for around 2 days now wouldnt be surprised if the ouse tomoro is very swollen, only just woke up now so quite disapointed as looking at the radar it seems we have some extremely heavvy rain this morning
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http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/CT/animate.arctic.0.html
Hope it works for you.
doesnt seem to want to load up, what is impressive, the rate at which it is melting?
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The warm plume coming up from north alaska(+10 850's) is really starting to be felt. The 30 day animation shows this better.
But the thining ice and melt water is very noticable.
where can i find the 30 day animation? thanks
vizzy2004
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melted
im guessing it must melt from around june onwards as a few weeks ago taht was solid ice
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is it me or is that ice starting to break up
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does anyone have the link which shows current artic ice and snow cover? thanks
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Another fine bank holiday weekend....
wwoohoo snowww!!!! now thats what i like to see
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im going for 15.8, a warm month but nothing exceptional
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The PDO (Pacific Decadel occilation) has a large infuence on our weather, when not at neutral values, it esentially dictates the state of the PNA with a 70% correlation between the two and also to a lesser degree the AO, with a 30% correlation, this is a positive correlation, meaning that if the PDO is negative then the PNA will be encouraged to be negative as well rather than a negative correlation which would mean that the PNA would be encouraged to go positive.
A negative PDO will typically see the following anomoly patttern on a sea surface temperature anomoly chart...
http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/
As you can see, a negative PDO would typically favour a split Pacific Jet Stream and Alaskan Trough.
As well as having another positive correlation with the ENSO state, it can aid in the development or hindrance of developing ENSO events.
Seen as though i am expecting near neutral conditions and La Nina looks only to be a weak affair, giving only a slight bias towards a negative PNA and AO, i think that the QBO will be the most important teleconnection this winter, giving a fairly large bias towards a negative AO.
and a negative AO should hopefully lead toa cold winter, thanks for the info, although i do not understand every word im learning gradually, vizzy
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I would say the current anomolies would mean a value of around -0.5.
Unfortunately, we had nearly the same pattern in the Pacific last year, so plenty of time for things to change, though it would indicate an amplified Pacific Jet Stream if things held.
It is possible that we are now entering a negative PDO cycle, if you plot the data for the past thirty years, you can see a tendancy towards a more negative PDO especially in the last ten years, suprisingly, if you do the same thing for the AO over the last thirty years, you see a fairly high correlation between the two.
Since June, we have observed PDO values of no more than 1 either side, the ast time we had a run of nine neutral months was June 2004 to February 2005, though this run began in May 2003, though on average, we are observing values around 0.5 and 1 lower than the first nine months of that cycle.
Based on this, i am going to make a little prediction for each month of the rest of this year and the winter months of 2008...
April: Neutral to negative PDO
May: Neutral to negative PDO
June: Neutral to negative PDO
July: Neutral to positive PDO
August: Neutral to negative PDO
September: Neutral to negative PDO
October: Neutral to positive PDO
November: Neutral to positive PDO
December: Neutral to negative PDO
January: Negative PDO
February: Neutral to negative PDO
Unfortuanely, with the PDO set to be near neutral for the remainder of this year, and the ENSO also neautral at the moment, this means that the QBO and AO are the major players at the moment, though to me, both look favourable for next winter.
could you plz tell me how the PDO effects our winters? thanks
UK Mountain Snow/Weather 2008
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Could well see some snow up in the highlands over the weekend if the current gfs is right, both netweather and metcheck predicting sleet for aviemore