NorthYorksWeather
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Posts posted by NorthYorksWeather
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Fantastic ensembles this evening. Alot of them showing cold evolutions and the main trend is for the jet stream heading south. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=192&code=0&mode=0&carte=
Nothing is certain but certainly interesting times ahead for coldies.
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I think you mean the GFS mean ? But you're right about the overall evolution there. It would require that deep upper low south of Greenland to drive SE and disrupt, sending some (ideally most for cold to be advected west) energy underneath the block.
Yes sorry i meant GFS. Nice to still see some hope in the models. What i like about the models at the moment is that there NOT showing agreement to cold evolution's as usually when they do they all backtrack at T72. So this time hopefully the models will backtrack in our favor this time. Just a hunch
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Just as an add on to previous postings, comparison of the 06Z GFS ensemble mean and the ECM operational at t168 (or approximate).
The GFS ensemble mean is showing a monster 376m height anomaly over Svalbard and that's greater than the one of the Aleutians / Alaska, which was supposed to be the stronger feature. By comparison the ECM op was way lower in its heights in the same area which makes a big difference in terms of solutions over Europe. The ECM ensemble mean height anomaly was noticeably stronger than the op, but displaced further east and south compared to GFS.
Looking at that ECM ensemble mean chart, due to the strong heights over Svalbard surely the jet would be forced South into central Europe giving us possibly colder air from the east.
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Highest gust in York 61mph!!! Not as bad here but still blowing a hooley! Didn't know this was forecast too busy looking for snow in f.I
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Thanks for sharing, although we received a foot at the beginning of December (lived in York at the time) i did not see one flake from that Northerly blast. Many places in the Vale of York didnt also. We usually do well from Northerlys but that was slightly NNW hence no snow. Was annoying at the time but now i would do anything for one!
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Had a good trip to the dales, snow level was around 300m. The road between Patelely Bridge and Grassington around Greenhow was very snowy indeed and made driving conditions very hard. Snow level was alot higher than predicted by the BBC.
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North York Moors has a good covering above 200m, gonna head to the dales today.. should be fun
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Vizzy - most of those ens shots are brief northerlys which will probably be flattened a fair bit by the time they get below T144 as shortwaves appear which the models fail to pick up at two weeks timescale.
We need to see proper blocking in high lattitudes which will change the pattern from it's current zonal state. There are clues out there. ECM at T240 has a mean ridge into se Alaska and also just east of svaalbard. They may well be brief and caught up in the zonal flow but they do present chances of WAA which would help to change the pattern.
Also, we have recently seen the northern arm splitting some energy south as exits the eastern seaboard at the end of the naefs runs. What is also noticeable is the same thing happening in the pacific. I guess the fact a strongish ridge is shown in the west of north America in a couple of weeks ties in with a general drop off in the strength of the jet upstream.
Yes i agree most of them are quick topplers but il happily take them after the winter so far. Like most not a snowflake so far this winter. Was just trying to add some Christmas cheer into the MOD thread.
I see 18z is also hinting at a Northerly in FI. Plenty of mild mush and some brief Pm colder incursions in northern areas to enjoy first
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Merry Christmas all!
Well at first glance the models don't look too promising for cold lovers in the short term, a quick scan through the ensembles in the latter stages (FI) give me a glimmer of hope. People may say its FI it will change bla bla but its christmas and this cheered me up here we go
Control Run 348 hours:
A nice northerly toppler!
P1 216
Cold North Westerly with snow in Northern areas
Another cold shot towards the end
P2 372
High ridging up to Greenland sending us a cold northerly
P3 384
Pressure rising over Greenland with a possibly link up to the Azores high.
P5 372
1055MB over Greenland, not sure what would happen from here but looks better than what we are seeing at the moment.
P6 348
Cold North Westerly as the Azores high tries to ridge to Greenland but fails.
P7 372
Textbook Northerly
P8 372
High linking up into West Greenland, if the block holds this would be good.
P9 288
Brief Northerly Toppler
P10 384
Another good looking end to the run yet again a block forming in the Atlantic and up into Greenland.
P12 372
Not sure about cold with this one but certainly looks interesting!
P13 276
Brief Toppler!
P14 384
Another Northerly shot.
P15 360
Same again!
P16 276
Nice Northerly!
P17 264
Brief Northerly/ Nor Easterly as a ridge topples.
P19 348
Promising looking chart!
P20 348
Cold North Westerly
This may change on the 18z and i admit there's no sign of any major sustained cold spell in the models but this shows there is certainly a pattern change coming soon for the better. hope everyone's had a nice Christmas and heres to a snowy 2012
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Still a thick frost on the ground here and surprised there are not more reports of freezing rain!
Raining here now. Freezing on impact, went to the bin 10 mins ago and nearly landed on my I have a problem! Deadly out there.
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I wouldn't say this is a very strong ridge, you have probably noticed the deep low just to the south of greenland on this map, this would indicate that although the jet could be nw-se based, it wouldn't produce the extreme cold you are probably wanting coupled with the fact it is deep FI I wouldn't be too confident anyway.
Yes i agree regarding the heights are not very strong but it could be a step in the right direction!
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Some more interest towards the latter stages of ECM. Am i right in thinking the 240hr chart shows a much stronger build of pressure towards Greenland and the troughs below possibly digging south?
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Some sleet/light snow falling across eastern parts. Top of Garrowby hill (243m) reporting light snow in the wolds!
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Something on the radar starting to intensify near York as it heads westwards, something to keep an eye on maybe.
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-2.7 in otley now
-2.2C here. Frost lasted all day here in the shade and temp dropping like a stone now.
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Your not alone Aaron. There's been snow to the North, East, West and South of me recently
. That Keeley :wub: off BBC Look North seem's to think there will be some wintry showers pushing west to east this evening. Looking at the radar it does puzzle me where these will come from. "Local accumulations" was a term used. We shall see! -
.A few more snow showers this morning. Light but nice! We've still got a nice dusting from last night too. Been better than I expected!
Can see those showers from here. Great anvils! Flamborough heads getting a pasting, wonder what it's falling as there.
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Well as I said the graphics showed rain. Just saw the latest forecast (9:25 BBC News) and again 'risk of snow over higher ground across peak district, pennines and several cm's down to lower levels across Scotland'. Emphasis on it taking along time for it turn back to snow. A few speckles of white over central northern england on the graphics too.
Dunno about your location 'Vizzy' perhaps snow on the leading edge?
Yeah sorry mate didn't read your post properly i think i read the possibility of snow and jumped straight onto BBC website. Most likely a 200m + event by the looks of it so good chance for you "Cheeserice". I have a 240m hill nearby so i could take a trip and maybe see something wintry
After the sleet and hail earlier, the temps have dropped enough to give us snow. We've had a couple of moderate showers in the last hour which has given us a nice covering.
I'm keeping an eye on the radar and just as i think we've seen the last, more seem to form.
When you get the chance mate, Ravenscar is an ace spot. Really good elevation for a coastal location. Top of there is about 180m ASL.
Cheers for that, just Google earthed it and some roads near Ravenscar are 200m +, that really is impressive for the coast. Usually just drive up the A169 from Pickering to Whitby when there's good showers, always falls as snow up there when there's a decent Northerly. Last time i was in Scarborough i was watching thunderstorm from Oliver's Mount at the end of October, now that was a treat!
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Shame i was at work today. Would love to of drove to somewhere near to the coast but above 150m asl to see some snow. Tempted to go now but looks like showers will start to fade out to sea.
BBC forecast suggesting risk of snow from the front passing on Monday. Several hours of snowfall possible before turning to rain on the back edge with the main risk been NE England and Scotland. Graphics just showed rain mind but it does hold some optimism that Yorkshire may finally see something widespread.
Just saw the BBC forecast no snow graphics for Monday apart from Scotland where did you see this mate?
Cheers,
Vizzy
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Had some sleet showers this evening. Snow reported in the Wolds and the North York Moors. First wintry convection off the North Sea in over a year. Icing over now roads quite bad wet ground and 0.0C is a bad combination.
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BBC forecast for tomorrow night looks amazing! GFS not so much although i always find it's precip forecast very poor. NAE charts are also looking very good. Looks like tomorrow a night of nail biting radar watching. Bring it on!
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True, We we're really spoilt last year! I'm at Osgodby near Cayton Bay. It may be coastal but The steep cliffs and steady climb makes me 88m ASL. We had some good snow depths last year, yet heading into Scarborough and decreasing that elevation there was a lot less. I bet you had some good snowfall last year with the showers funnelling down the Vale of York! I look out onto the Wolds and watched the showers packing in in that direction when we had the Easterly.
Here's hoping it comes good. Even a 24 hour event would put me in the festive mood!
I notice the MEto have put out a cold weather alert for Yorkshire and Humber too.
I've only just moved to Malton few months back so i was in York for last winter. Spent most of my days off work driving up to wolds as i love it up there. End of the week certainly looks interesting, if no snow certainly a good frost!
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no we didnt Vizzy. the strat was much warmer last autumn and this meant that the p/v didnt become as organised as it did this november. i believe some wave breaking during early november did the damage to what was a pretty weak vortex which enabled the high lat blocking to establish that delivered our cold december. the strat cooled down in december and we then saw a fairly average to mild jan/feb. no guarantee that the two were linked though ...............
SSW's dont occur that early in the season.
Cheers mate. Very fascinating all this stuff just not easy to get my head round it. Im getting there tho
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Bit draughty here tonight! Can't get any readings because the ruddy transmitter on my station has run out of batteries! It's on the piggin roof too so I don't have a clue when I'm gonna be able to safely climb up there!!
Anyway, Looking a lot colder this weekend and into next week. I was looking forward to the brief Northerly that was showing as It's usually a pretty good set up for us on the coast. Looks like It's loosing it's intensity on each run with higher pressure and the 850hpa temps not really getting below -7 which would probably make the situation a little more marginal here at the coast.
Plenty of time for change mind as it doesn't look like Friday's storm is nailed yet which will surely have an impact.
A good bit of model watching coming up!
I'm also watching this northerly closely as its my best hope for snow as it seems the west is getting all the fun at the moment. I suppose we were spoilt here in the east this time last year. Although i was caught in a moderate snow shower near Goathland this morning which was a nice surprise. The flow looks to be NNW which means the showers will brush the coast as as you say may be marginal for coastal areas. Some runs on the ensembles showing more of a direct Northerly so not all hope is lost. If the showers push inland slightly you may see some wintry stuff as you have elevation on your side. Where about's in Scarborough are you? Maybe something wintry at Olivers Mount
. That Keeley :wub: off BBC Look North seem's to think there will be some wintry showers pushing west to east this evening. Looking at the radar it does puzzle me where these will come from. "Local accumulations" was a term used. We shall see!
Model Output Discussion - 8th - 14th January
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
A question to the most experience model watchers, has there ever been a cold spell where the GFS has been correct and the ECM backtracked at the last moment? Maybe clutching at straws but would be nice to know. Thanks