Dangerous55019

Hello everyone, I did promise that I'd check back in a couple of days to show what the CFS v2 is showing... And here I am! Week 1 - 1st to the 7th June: High pressure appears to be out over central and southern parts of main land Europe, then stretching up through western Russia towards the Arctic. Meanwhile there appears to be a trough of low pressure stretching from the central part of the Atlantic, and extending its influence over us here in the UK. Looking at the positioning of things, to me that suggests more of the sunshine and showers routine that we've had for about a week or so now. Certainly not a washout, and feeling quite pleasant in the direct sun. Week 2 - 8th to the 14th June: Pretty similar to week 1, but with the low pressure moving more towards the northern part of Ireland and western Scotland. So pretty much the same. Week 3 - 15th to the 21st June: That low pressure area appears to be more centred over Scotland now... Probably the second phase of the European summer monsoon? I'm gonna say more of the sunshine and showers with perhaps longer spells of rain thrown in. Week 4 - 22nd to the 28th June: The low pressure appears to have retreated out towards the Atlantic, and an area of high pressure cantered over Iceland and Greenland could start to extend its influence over us. But with the position of that low pressure not to far away, we could have a few burst of rain, but it is looking dryer than week 3. Again, it should feel pleasant in the sunshine. So there you have it! a typical mixed bag of British weather. ?️ Sorry if that's not what some folks want to see or hear, but I can only say what the model is showing. But its the CFS, and it is a low res model anyway.

Evening everyone. Time for a look at the CFS v2 four weekly anomaly charts, just to see if any of them can help clear the muddy waters a bit... Week 1 - 30th May to the 5th June: High pressure appears to be more in the Arctic circle! A trough of low pressure appears to be stretching from the Azores right the way up to southern tip of Norway and Sweden! Yes this does cover us here in the UK. To me this says, the first wave of the 'European Summer Monsoon' as low pressure moves in from the West bringing cooler weather and heavy slow moving showers is bang on cue! Week 2 - 6th to the 12th June: Again there is a trough of low(er) pressure running from the Bay of Biscay right up to Norway and Sweden. I'm gonna hazard a guess at rinse and repeat of week 1... Which thinking about it is right bang on cue for the second wave of the European summer Monsoon. Week 3 - 13th to the 19th June: Low pressure is now more based out to the west of Ireland, and a displaced Azores High covering Portugal, Spain and France would leave us in a potentially moist and humid air flow. Certainly not cold, and the more settled weather towards the southern part of the UK. Meanwhile Ireland and the northern part of the UK could see some more unsettled weather at times. Week 4 - 20th to the 26th June: The Azores high appears to be expanding out of main land Europe, and covering us here in the UK, as well as Norway, Sweden etc. To me this says fine and settled. So there you go folks! Sorry if that's not what some of you want to hear or see, but I can only say what the charts are showing. I'll pop back and do this again to see if anything has altered. ?️?️?️

Hello everyone... Time for a quick look at the month ahead with the CFS v2... Week 1 - 27th May to the 2nd June: High pressure over to our west, and low pressure over to our east, suggests to me a bit of a northerly/north easterly air flow. Probably feeling a little chilly in the shade, and quite possibly showery as well, but certainly not a washout either, and it'll probably feel quite pleasant in the direct sunshine. Week 2 - 3rd to the 9th June: It looks like a Scandinavian high is coming to take control of our weather! With winds from a more easterly direction, it probably it won't feel too humid either. Possibly a spell of summery weather. Week 3 - 10th to the 16th June: All change! The Scandinavian high retreats eastwards back towards main land Europe, and with low pressure starting to lurk out to the west of Ireland, this could well fetch up some warm/hot southerly winds, which could give us some thundery weather! Dare I say it, a Spanish Plume scenario? ... Time will tell. Week 4 - 17th to the 24th June: It looks like there could be a link up between the Azores High, and the Scandinavian high(!) over most of England and Wales! Scotland and Ireland could possibly be a tad more unsettled. Will it pan out like this? Only time will tell, as this is the CFS after all.

It’s 03:45 in the morning! It’s what most normal people would call the middle of the night. But there is no escaping the light at this time of year. this is my current view looking north.

Morning everyone. Time for a look at the CFS v2 four weekly anomalies, just to see if these can help shed any more light for other members.... Week 1 - 24th to the 30th May: High pressure looks to be centered out to our west, and would therefore be bringing in a more northerly type airflow. Certainly not a wash out. Week 2 - 31st May to the 6th June: High pressure looks to be extending up towards our north and east, but again extending its influence over us here in the UK. Again, no heatwave, but certainly not a washout either. Week 3 - 7th to the 13th June: High pressure retreats towards the north pole! Hello Northern blocking? Low(er) pressure looks to be moving in off the Atlantic and over the top of Scotland. ... Is this the start of the traditional European Summer Monsoon? Week 4 - 14th to the 20th June: With the exception of the far north west of Scotland, low pressure looks to be over us here in the UK. Sorry if that's not what folks want to read, but that's what the models are showing.

Hello everyone, for what its worth, time to throw my two penneth worth into this discussion with the CFS v2 4 weekly anomalies for the end of Spring and the start of meteorological summer. Week 1 - 20th to the 26th May: High pressure looks to be centered over main land Europe, which looks to be extending its influence over the southern part of the UK. Ireland, northern England, and Scotland look to be under the influence of a more Atlantic, westerly driven weather pattern, so probably more unsettled. Week 2 - 27th May to the 2nd June: The high pressure over main land Europe appears to be extending it influence over pretty much all of the UK! So I'm guessing a fine and settled week on the whole. Week 3 - 3rd to the 9th June: The high pressure once again sinks south toward main land Europe, and bar the southern most extremities of Britain, I'd say that we're looking at a much more Atlantic influenced spell of weather. Is this the start of the European Summer Monsoon? Week 4 - 10th to the 16th June: The high pressure pulls out into the Atlantic, leaving the UK and Ireland in what could be a more Northerly air flow. Certainly not a wash out, but not a heat wave either! Will it pan out like this? Only time will tell. Hopefully this will help some members trying to piece together what's going to happen.

The time is 22:51, and I’m just taking the dog for a quick walk after getting home from work… And this is how much light we’ve currently got in the sky!

Right… That’s it… I’m throwing the towel in on today for me. For my own point of view, it just wasn’t quite hot enough to kick the storms off around my area. Every thing was in place, but as soon as the storms started to form, they killed themselves off as everything cooled. *sigh* But good luck to everyone else with todays storms. ?⛈ Here’s the latest rainfall and lightning maps in the hope that they’re useful to other members. Other than that… It’s over and out from storm starved in north east Wales.

After my last post, we’ve just had a really heavy power shower here! ? Lashing rain, really strong gusty winds, but oddly, no thunder!

Despite what looks to be quite impressive rainfall, I can confirm that all we’ve had are a few spots of rain! Likewise, I haven’t heard any more thunder. I’m starting to get the feeling that today could be a bit of a damp squib! Anywhoooo, this is my current view looking north towards Runcorn and Manchester… Plus current live lightning and rainfall radar.

The sky is very dark over to my north west. Update: Just heard a distant rumble of thunder! ?

Looks like something is starting to kick off over the Cheltenham/Gloucester area. Plus the remains of the Norfolk storm now slowly heading out into the North Sea.

Starting to turn really quite warm in the sun now… Really muggy as well. This is my view to my south. ????

Flintshire weather update…….. Just been out to walk the dog; grey and muggy after the overnight rain. But the cloud is starting to break, and the sun is breaking through. ?????⛈

Morning everyone. I see that the U.K. Meto have just issued a thunderstorm warning for today. ⛈ Good luck to everyone with these storms today. ?⛈??

Morning @ANYWEATHER Funny isn’t it? Most normal people (like your good self) are all saying exactly the same, where as I just want to crawl into a cave or a hole until after the solstice. I swear I should have been born a bat or a mole, or some other darkness loving creature. Yet once we’re passed the solstice, I don’t see it as a slippery slope, I tend to feel like it’s a chance to freewheel, after a long hard, and torturous climb. Oh the joys of being a reverse SAD sufferer. Lol Ahhh well… Here’s hoping for a summer of thunderstorms storms to make it more bearable. ?⛈??

Morning @damianslaw Thats pretty much me, but in April, May and throughout a major chunk of June, but once the solstice has passed, I find myself looking ever so hard for those first noticeable changes of receding light, (being as I work shifts, I normally see this during the early hours of the morning). Once I actually see a change towards increasing darkness, it feels like a huge weight is being lifted off me. Strange I know… But hey. The funny thing is that I’m really not a fan of Christmas. ?? But having said that, I find the time around the October clock change and Halloween particularly magical. I swear I’m wired differently to other people. Lol

Farewell darkness my old friend… Enjoy your summer break, and I’m looking forward to your return in late July. Sorry… Morning everyone Well during the night at 01:34 my part of the world here in North East Wales entered the world of the lingering twilight for another year. The darkness returns for me on the 29th of July. The final long, hard slog up to the solstice is now underway. *sigh* Having said that, it also means that I can start looking for Noctilucent cloud’s again.

Morning @cheeky_monkey The weird thing is I'm the exact opposite, I'm counting down the days to the summer solstice because I suffer with reverse SAD, so I'm the exact opposite of most of the good folk on this forum, and looking forward to the returning of the darkness. Its the same every year for me, as soon as April arrives, I just feel this wave of hopelessness come over me, and most of the time all I want to do is just hide away or cry, but I have bills to pay etc, etc... But once the solstice has passed, I look ever so hard for the first signs of the shortening of the days, and once I see it (normally in a morning as I work shifts) it feels like a huge weight has been lifted from my shoulders, which is utterly bonkers, as there is absolutely nothing I can do about it. The flip side of being a reverse SAD sufferer is that come October/November/December time, I feel absolutely full of life, when most normal folk feel as I do now. Edit: I've just read that back after I had posted, and god I'm starting to sound like laserguy! Lol ... Whatever happened to him?

Whilst on my break in work I've just been having a look at the excellent Time and Date website, ( http://www.timeanddate.com ) and I've just noticed that the lingering twilight has now reached the boarder town of Berwick-upon-Tweed! In fact this coming weekend is my last weekend of true darkness, before the 29th July, as the darkness takes its summer break! ?️ I know that meteorological summer starts on the 1st June, but light wise I think I can safely say, welcome to summer 2022. ?️

Ahhh the summer thread... Or the pre-autumn thread as I like to think of it. ?️ Now for once I have been having a look at some of the long range models as to what could happen this year, now for a while the like of the CFS V2, Cansips etc have been showing a front loaded summer, but turning much more unsettled as time goes on, (i.e. July and August) ... Now will it pan out like that? Only time will tell. As for my hope/wish cast for summer 2022, well, although I'm not a fan of long hot summers, (being as I suffer with reverse SAD) I would gladly take those unbearably hot, hazy and sultry days, for the thunderstorm value... Say every other day a huge thundery breakdown in the evening, and the alternating days without the thunderstorms, have a barbeque. Anyway... At the end of the day, the weather will do, whatever the weather will do.

Morning everyone. Well five days have passed sine I last had a look at the CFS v2 4 weekly anomaly charts... So here we go... I'll keep it short, and sweet... All 4 weeks are pretty much showing the same thing! So from the 28th April to the 25th May, the is high pressure just sitting more or less over us here in the UK! There are obviously some slight shifts in the location of the high, which will vary the temperature, fair weather cloud etc... But other than that, there's not a lot else I can say really.

Morning everyone. Thought I'd start off this Monday morning with a quick look at the CFS v2 for the next four weeks... Week 1: 24th to the 30th April - High pressure centered to our north west, would probably allow winds to come in from a more northerly/north easterly direction, which is more of less what the shorter range models are showing. But more fine and dry weather with variable amounts of cloud floating about. Week 2: 1st to the 7th May - Looks like we might actually have some weather! The high pressure appears to be scuttling back towards Greenland and Canada, and we've got low pressure over to our north east! Probably be quite cool and showery... Certainly doesn't look to be a complete washout. Week 3: 8th to the 14th May - High pressure now back and over to our north and east. Low pressure to our south west. Probably would be fine, dry and sunny for most of us, but it wouldn't take a lot for the low pressure to possibly give us something more... Well, thundery. But hey its three weeks away, so it probably won't happen. Week 4: 15th to the 21st May - A ridge of high pressure stretching out into the Atlantic looks like it could probably bring more fine dry and sunny weather! So there you go! Apart from week 2, and hints of something in week 3, I'd say that the fine and settled weather is going to carry on! Will it, or won't it? Only time will tell, and the weather will do, whatever the weather will do.

And why have I just quoted myself in a reply to someone else? One day I'll learn how to use this forum! Lol And swerving swiftly back on topic... In just two months time it'll be the summer solstice! I just hope my reverse SAD holds out (holds off... You know what I mean) ... As the past couple of years I've had it really quite bad during the late spring and early summer.

Good afternoon @Sentinel Because of your location on the planet, during the summer months it never goes completely dark. If you look towards the north on a summers evening, you'll see that the sky doesn't go completely dark, there is always like a dim blue glow towards the north horizon - the lingering twilight. The further north you are, the brighter the sky is at midnight. Basically its because we're close to the land of the midnight sun.