OK, as I understand it:
We have weather and it happens as it wants if you predict/forecast it correctly or not. Now weather isn't influenced by models, it's actually the other way around so when we say we see something happening in the future in a particular model/chart/data stream/forecast, we are actually saying it might come out like that, or it just might not. As you get closer to the time when weather is going to arrive, you get more things to help you make a decision, until the weather actually does happen, just over your head (this is then known as 100% certainty and is foolproof).
Now unlike a lottery, you can improve how good your foresight is by learning a bit of science - I've only understood an ickle bit of the science so I mostly just guess. My guesses are sometimes right and sometimes not, but the main thing is I don't throw lots of toys out of lots of prams when the weather I guessed, or the weather I wanted, didn't turn up.
Some people know a lot of science and get it right more often than not, but I'm dim so I stick with guesses and try to avoid disappointment.
So read all the guesses and the clever science, study the good arguments and the nice pictures, but when you've done that; expect the least, hope for something you want and don't be upset if none of it turns out the way either the clever people or the guessers think it might.......