SouthYorks

WRF NMM 2k similar but slightly further North compared to Arome snd Arpege.

Arome joins the party!

We look to be smack bang in the sweet spot there... Looks good for a few hours of heavy snow before becoming less cold and the snow turning to rain. Let's hope we get a few inches settling before it disappears again! ?

I'm beginning to doubt the reliability of the BBC and Meto graphics. They have now changed 4 times since around 6.30 this morning, switching between longer periods of heavy snow to light sleet for Barnsley! Seems odd when they are probably still working off one set of data from the 0z. Time of course will tell...

Yes, further North and East still a longer spell of snow before turning to sleet.

Well, sorry to say all the models and the Fax charts now have the low about 200 miles further North compared to yesterdays 12z which is the trend the 18z started. The speed of travel West to East is much quicker and the precipitation looks lighter. As a consequence Barnsley has gone from 9 hours of snow to 3 hours and then sleet on both BBC and Meto websites! North Yorkshire still does better than South, but not nearly as good as shown by the 12z. Let's see what the 6z say, but I think we'll probably see further downgrades, as the trend is not our friend!

I'm not liking the look of the GFS 18z. The low is too round, no longer elongated, and the uppers are much warmer in the South of the region. Let's hope this is just a pub run special and we see a reversal of trend on the overnight and tomorrow morning runs.

Yep, it's definitely looking that way. It will just be great to see settling snow though after the disappointments of earlier events this month.

The trend does currently seem to be for a longer period of snow for Yorkshire. Snow was originally shown for Friday on Christmas day, but only light and for a couple of hours. Now showing heavy and for 6-7 hours, starting in South Yorkshire between 6 and 9am. Will be interesting to watch to see how this develops over the next 48 hours. It will be disappointing if this turns into another damp squib after 2 misses so far this month!

Fax chart has the low further South, with it exiting around the Wash, which would put all of Yorkshire on the North side of the low so should mean snow for longer before the less cold air moves in to turn the snow to rain.

You may well be right, as that has been the pattern with GFS with the previous 2 systems (aka 'Slidergate') ? It will be interesting to see where the ECM has the low as it has been closer to the track on each occasion.

12z precipitation looks a lot heavier than shown on 6z, but low looks slightly further North although progress across the country looks slower. Suspect this will be a snow to rain event, particularly South Yorkshire at lower levels.

OK... ??. Looking at the GFS SLP and Meto forecasts for various Yorkshire locations, I reckons a shift of about 20 to 30 miles south and Barnsley would be in for a better chance of heavy snow. Malton would still be good as well. Do we have a deal? ???

With any luck this system will move slight further south than currently forecast then we'll be on the northern side of the low for longer and may do better..

Barnsley towards the southern edge of the warning area! For yesterdays 'event' we were on the northern edge! The pessimist in me says Fridays event will go north of us in the same way the last 2 have gone south!

Some interesting charts just posted in the Midlands thread, showing a move north of the main precip band, and therefore Yorkshire more in the firing line. Absolutely no guarantees, but worth watching...

Easing off in Barnsley now, and Radar shows the heaviest has now disipated. Well at least got a vague covering, if nothing like originally forecast.

Agreed, very very slight SE movement but intensifying. This is consistent with latest updated forecast from Meto which now shows Barnsley as having mostly heavy snow until 6, rather than light snow as per previous update approx 2 hours ago.

Now getting a covering in Barnsley, which was quite unexpected after the complete fail of the orginal forecast from 2 days ago. This seems to have come from nowhere, and certainly not forecast. Just goes to show how difficult it is to forecast snow events,

Upgrade for Barnsley in meto forecast as now showing light snow from now all afternoon until 7pm.

We've had very light snow for last 10 minutes...maybe still get a light dusting today, but nothing more...and certainly not the 5-10cm that was forecast a couple of days ago!

Assuming it continues to move North at the same rate (seems around 16 miles an hour), the front edge should arrive in Barnsley around 9. Time will tell!

Whilst Northern edge of the precip is still edging North East the biggest movement of the heaviest is sliding South East, so Midlands and South are going to get this as forecast. If we are lucky we may see a covering tomorrow but I doubt it will be much.

You might be right, although the main band of precip extended SE out if Eire is pretty much as per the 18z but what is different is the front edge precip over South Wales/Bristol Channel.

The NE progression is as per the 18z. As my post above, if it gets further North of the Eire/N Ireland border then that will be a variance to the current modelling, Here is hoping!