Duncan McAlister

Cough up

This year almost seems like 2006 in reverse, this time a mild start being offset by a cool second half. A September of 14C, together with an average (1971-00) October-December gives an outturn of 10.42C, a figure which would just have been unthinkable at the end of April and would actually be the 2nd coolest year of the decade. A more realistic figure would perhaps be 10.5-10.6C, allowing for a mild month or two. 10.4C though, with the way synoptics have been going, is far from impossible. Interesting times....

Why do I get the feeling that any future record melt in the Arctic will never be attributed to a 'software glitch'?

With -4C forecast for Inverness, I wonder if a more central, rural location could perhaps get into Torro's record table? SEPTEMBER - 6.7 20 Dalwhinnie (Highland) 26 Sep 1942 - 6.2 20.8 Lagganlia (Highland) 27 Sep 1975 - 6.1 21 Glenlivet 23 Sep 1948 - 6.1 21 Dalwhinnie 15 Sep 1979 - 6.0 21.2 Braemar (Grampian) 28 Sep 1974 - 5.6 22 Santon Downham (Norfolk) 30 Sep 1969

These suggest about 9C on Wednesday, SF http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rtavn13817.png http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn15017.png although they do tend to overcook, and that's why Stu has made an allowance for this.

Should fall in the morning and be significantly lower on Wednesday morning thanks to tonight's low minima. The higher predictions like mine aren't looking so good now, but I still think it'll end up above average. As I predicted we've already had a dose of 0C 850 air, last September the 0C isotherm never reached our shores at all.

Yes! That makes the summer 0.4C below 1971-00 and 0.1C below 1961-90. It's still possible

Can anybody post a link to the full table of a month's flow index? All I can see on Philip's page are the top 3 northerly months. Interesting that Aug 1940 is more northerly than 2007 and has the same CET :o Also, I've heard that 1995 was in the top 5 N'ly Augusts. It wasn't exactly 'nippy'.

I think we're in for a very warm one, anticyclonic but not as strong a southerly flow as last year. 15.5, joining a rather exclusive club of Septembers warmer than Julys. I do hope I'm wrong.

For the first time since May, the ice takes a very small step upwards :lol: http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IM...current.365.jpg

A couple of 9's across the CET zone (Birmingham, Leek Thorncliffe), the rest around 10-13C, quite early in the evening for them to be down this low. Perhaps another fall tomorrow then.

I'm just not sure about September being summer really. A hot summer month should contain spells of uncomfortably hot weather and sultry nights, last September was the hottest on record and still didn't really meet these criteria, not here anyway. It also contained a very autumnal spell around mid-month, although still mild. When we eventually do get a more average September it will feel autumnal (like 2001). March, meanwhile can be very wintry (occasionally with ice days). This year I recorded a 5C max on the 20th, and 2.8C at midday on the 18th. It can also contain summery maxima around the 21C mark. Similarly, the beginning of last November felt like winter, the beginning of this May felt like summer and in places the end of it was like winter. Some days this August have had temperatures and weather akin to October. I don't think you can define what season a month is around its average temperatures. If September is a summer month because the average CET is usually above 14C these days, and a summer month is defined as one with an average temp of 14C+, that means that Scotland technically doesn't have a summer! (Actually, there may be something to the theory :o ) Months can always contain unseasonal weather, so just to be awkward I'd stick with the Met Office definitions!

BBC 5-dayer for Pershore would suggest a fall from Sunday onward, surprisingly low minima for the Beeb: http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/5day.shtml?id=3907 Still they aren't the most accurate in the world. I don't think there will be any abrupt change from here, between 15.7-16.1C by month's end.

I think it is a great vid Trev, puts it far more in context than the daily animations, it all looks much more 'fluid'. The way the N Alaskan ice just seems to vapourise at the beginning of June is scary! And thank God for broadband because on dial-up I think there'd be no summer ice left by the time you download it! (took me 20 minutes on a 512K, I think, connection)

Thanks Mezza and Carinthian, the Highlands has already had a frost, -0.9C at Tulloch Bridge on Tuesday morning!

Mr Eden has UK temperatures below average in all regions, especially Scotland, Wales and SW England. As July was also below average and June above average in most regions, I expect something slightly below the 71-90 average :wub: http://www.climate-uk.com/page2.html

Could we see snow in Northern Scandinavia next week with charts like these? http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1803.png http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2043.png and would this be particularly unusual?

Judging by the amount of times it's happened this summer, I think September will see at least a few incursions of Pm air. The amazing thing about last September was not only did the 0C 850 isotherm never come anywhere near our shores, but the 5C isotherm was well to our north for most of the month too. I don't think it'll be like that this year, we've seen 0C air into England in June and brush N Scotland in July. Next week on GFS sees a very cold shot for late August into Scandinavia with the -5C isotherm brushing the north. Will reserve my prediction until a day or two before the 1st as per usual! :unsure:

Tulloch Bridge reporting 3C at 11pm.

Using the BBC 5-day forecasts for Birmingham and Pershore and the current Hadley figure I think the CET will be around 15.6C by Friday the 24th, giving a good chance of the second below average month on the bounce (perhaps even the second month below 61-90).

A rather poignant moment - the graph on CT has had to be altered to account for a greater than 2 million km2 negative anomaly. And after showing signs of leveling off, looks like the ice has taken a big drop in the last day or two. http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IM...current.365.jpg

Yes and the last sub-15.5C July was 1993... and which year broke that trend I wonder?

The Arctic could be doing with some of that

It doesn't mean anything on a global scale It's just because it's where we live and so naturally are interested in the temperature trend here. The world temperature is irrelevant to how the weather feels here, but as with most places in the world the CET is on an upward trend. It is also one of the longest records of temperature so good for comparing records.

Met Office confirm LWC as highest reading of the day at 30.3C http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_...st_weather.html I guess this means it is official. Sigh. I don't think we'll have a shot at a year without 30C for many years to come, this was probably the best chance. One consolation is that that could very well be the highest reading of the year, and is still quite low, even in comparison with the period 1900-1970.