Duncan McAlister

Sorry if this has been asked before, but why has this graph changed: http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IM...urrent.anom.jpg to show dramatic warming from 2003 to the extent that the line has never been above average since then? ISTR that it changed around this February, before that it had occasionally still gone above the average mark (e.g. November 2005 I think). This is no longer shown. Anyone know? Carinthian?

The minima have actually been surprisingly cool this July for such a low pressure dominated month. Above average for CET zone, but not by a great deal. My local weather station, Prestwick Airport, has recorded 7 sub-10C minima this month so far. This compares favourably with previous cool Julys: Sub 10C nights in 1998: 3 2000: 10 2004: 8 It is possible that 2000 may be equalled with a few cooler nights at the end of the month. Even at Heathrow most of the nights have been below 14C, the July average. Stats from weatheronline.co.uk

Be careful about generalising to much in the present - 2006 started with a long, fairly cold winter and contained a long, exceptionally hot summer - very much a year of seasonal extremes! On the other hand there have been many seasons that have been damp squibs with little temperature variation. Just look at the temperature range for the January CET - from a continental -3.1C to a balmy 7.5C. The seasons in Britain have never been reliable.

Richard, your candour is most refreshing! Still, we have the best weather in Britain today :lol: www.xcweather.co.uk

Here's the one http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/data/download.html

Or it could be a real shock to the system if August comes in below average or only 0.1-0.3C above and be sub-16. After all, only two out of the last 10 summers have been 17C+ so sub-17 is still very much the norm.

Sorry to nitpick, but wasn't it just 0.2C higher than the previous warmest, 1983?

Yes I agree here, it has been a very disappointing summer month this decade (the incredible 2003 excepted). I think it'll probably be THE summer month this year, despite an odd viewpoint by many people up here that August is an autumn month! Don't get me wrong, I'd like a sunny and dry month, but a CET of 20C, probably meaning a Scotland temp of 15.5C+? Yeeeuch!

No offence West, but I hope you are as right about that as you were about summer starting on Thursday 28th June Any clue as to why you think this?

Assuming the CET remains more or less where it is now for the next 5 days (I think it will, with rises today and tomorrow being offset by a cooler weekend under the rain), it will take an average temperature of 19C from the 23rd onwards to bring the month to average. I fail to see where this will come from and so can't understand why some people are predicting an average or slightly above month. In fact I don't think it will quite reach the 1961-90 average.

Well, 1.6C above average sounds a lot better than 0.9C above average if you are pushing the AGW case (I am no sceptic, btw) Interesting, so 1961-90 was actually a relatively cool period in our climate (in the context of the last century). Thanks for the 100-year averages, I didn't know where to find them before. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/2007/june.html 61-90 alive and well here on the MetO too!

Like I've said before Gav, it helps prove their point about GW I've read another poster saying it is also quite close to the 1901-2000 average?

I just find it interesting to see how difficult it is to match it these days - look how rare 3.8C Januaries or Februaries are now!

Check out the averages for this year http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html March for example, if you take away the anomaly, it gives an average of 5.6C - this is the 61-90 average Still, if you're a cold weather fan, a below average month isn't really cold until it's below 61-90

I believe that's the 1961-90 figure though, if you regard the average as 1971-00 then it's more like -0.8C

The models and ensembles now seem to rule this out for the rest of the month. There are plenty of heat sources to tap into to achieve this temp in August and September. But where will the synoptics come from? And the wet ground may play a part in holding back temps.

I'd imagine there would be many places in Scotland and Ireland where it is possible.

Careful, talk like that on forums like these and you get called a madman

It would be nice to get the first decent August (i.e. warm AND dry) since 2003. 38C temperatures can stay in Europe though!

I took it to mean the absolute maximum i.e. the highest temperature for the whole summer?

I should also add that the MetO/climate forecasters partly have themselves to blame over this too For example: summers in Southern England will be much hotter and drier, "tropical" even. Erm..... Now of course I know that this a generalisation. Every year will be different under GW but I think in these scare stories there can be too much emphasis on particular types of weather that grab headlines, rather than looking at averages and pointing out we can still get cool, wet summers or cold winters.

I can understand why people feel this way. For the government this just seems to be all about 'tax, tax, tax' without any incentives to live a greener lifestyle. EDIT: I'm not a sceptic myself, but if I didn't know the science, I think the politicians would have turned me into a sceptic!

I think it's possible any month, I have read of it snowing in the mountains in August in the 19th century at least.

If you're serious then that would be quite something in relation to recent years, particularly that Manchester one.

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IM...VE/20070607.jpg http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IM...VE/20070614.jpg Hudson practically vapourised in a week, though it was always going to melt anyway.