Duncan McAlister

Has that 28.4 record in Northern Ireland on Tuesday been discounted? It didn't appear on the Ceefax records p407, and betfair are still taking bets on 81F or lower for June :lol: EDIT: It was actually Monday and BBC Weather have also not counted it. http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/dai...007review.shtml

The ensembles are remarkably consistent at around average to slightly below, however as we've seen recently minima in particular can still stay up in below average upper-airs.

I think it's very unlikely even if the cool 12z comes off. 15.5C-16C would still be my bet. I don't however think we'll see a 30C this month anywhere in the UK.

20C in my back garden, 18C at Prestwick Airport making it one of the UK hotspots just now. Min: 9.6C Bright with sunny spells.

16C, and I think the second half will be scorching. 3 out of 4 guesses within 0.5C

I've seen this argument on here before and agree really, but the Met Office practice is to give monthly averages to one decimal place and seasonal/annual averages to two. http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/ssn_HadCET_mean_sort.txt

I stand corrected!

You're not taking into account April is only 30 days. True enough I'm nitpicking, normally it wouldn't really matter but in this situation this tiny margin makes the crucial difference. 7.2*31=223.2 + 11.2*30=336 + 12.2*31=378.6 / 92 days= 10.19 Edit: No you're right, my apologies! Just checked this winter's average and it seems the Met Office calculate it your much quicker way! So the record still on :wub: ....

Spring record (1893) = 10.20 A May of 12.2 would give an exact Spring CET of 10.19, so 12.3 would be required, which would give us 10.22.

My (perhaps not brilliant) calculation of the CET up to the 31st, according to GFS 12z, makes it 12.8C, just enough for the warmest Spring on record! Great, the warming just goes on and on

The models are so fickle at the moment so this is purely a pot shot - 12.3C, about the 10-year mean, and less sun will mean lower day temps.

Interestingly, despite this record anomaly, it would appear an ice bridge has formed between Greenland and Iceland. Wasn't it mentioned earlier this year that this hasn't happened since the 1960s? http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/arctic.1.jpg

Going to change my prediction, it's now not looking the least bit cold for the first 2 weeks at least. Put me down for 9.4c please.

For the first time, going to go for a slightly below average month, at 7.5. Think the northerly at the beginning could turn out quite a low first week.

Weird looking at these max temps for April, they all occur around the middle of the month, when you'd expect with insolation, rising SSTs etc. them to occur at the end of the month, as with March's highest temps. http://www.torro.org.uk/TORRO/britwxextremes/maxtemps.php And 29.4C is amazing for April, just shows the amount of records still to be broken in a warming Britain.

And with a possible 'cool' easterly, could the month just sneak below 6c - lower than Dec, Jan and Feb?

Stratos I could be reading this wrong but is Feb 1986, at -1.1c, not almost 2 degrees below the 'minimum threshold' for that time? Also, what makes these thresholds set in stone?

Yes - the coldest month on record was -3.1, the coldest month last century was -2.1 and February 1986 had a CET of -1.1 which is not really that long ago. Adding GW (0.8c) to all these figures still gives a <1c month. Last winter showed we can still get the synoptics, it's just that the coldest temps never coincided with a calendar month.

It's looking mild, but nothing really warm standing out either, and with the prospect of something anticyclonic bringing cooler nights around about the second week, I'll go for 6.8c, 0.5 above average.

I presume you mean in the summer, Interitus?

FN - I think there is something wrong with last February's images, take a look at the 1st and the 28th, they are exactly the same!

Latest arctic ice I see the ice has now reached or just passed last year's peak, an encouraging sign, do you expect it to go further, carinthian?

My God, if this 12z cold snap comes off, we may actually have an average month

Brilliant memories there! What snow was all about - a day off school! Particular favourite was the day in January 2000 - snow about 4-6 inches I can't remember exactly, and snowball fights in the playground at 8.55. We were kept in registration for an hour, before being sent to our second period class where some boys cracked a window throwing heavy snowballs . About 15 minutes in the headmaster came to the class with the good news that we were to make our arrangements to go home as conditions were expected to get worse, which they didn't. Very icy the next day. A slightly strange one was the closure in 2001 for what was here a mere dusting, however it may have been worse for teachers living further east. I hope you have a 'snow day' tomorrow, supercell!

Thanks snowman, let's hope you're right! :lol: