Duncan McAlister
-
Posts
1,086 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Everything posted by Duncan McAlister
-
Yes although I'm not a 'mildie' I am certainly jealous of your sunshine this weekend and wouldn't even mind a couple of hot days either! Heavy rain and 13C here!
-
Do I have reason to be twitchy about my bet on betfair that 91F (32.8C) wouldn't be breached this summer? Edit: I mean in the context of today, not asking for a 4 week forecast :o
-
Meh. After tomorrow it's looking cool in the reliable timeframe, I still think it'll be close to average.
-
I very much agree with this and it affects night-time temperatures for sleeping as well. I found last night very comfortable despite a minimum of 15.8C with very high humidity. The night before was down to 11C but sweltering to sleep in. The difference? There was no sun yesterday to bake my room all day! I notice this even in early spring, around April.
-
Are we still capable of getting a <1c CET month?
Duncan McAlister replied to Anti-Mild's topic in Space, Science & nature
I wonder how this July would look on SF's threshold chart <_< -
Where do the BBC show the CET on their site, WBSH?
-
Hadley is surprisingly 0.2C below average up 'til the 2nd, although this will obviously change this weekend. After that, ensembles dip below average in for the whole of the reliable timeframe.
-
Are you confusing the England average with the CET? Because the CET had a far greater anomaly than England as a whole. Hadley CET - 15.2 (1.3C below 71-00 average, 0.9C below 61-00 average).
-
Yup, great coastal scenery - and I'll be there when the Open returns to Turnberry in 2009! When the UK gets a hot summer (1995, 2003, 2006 from memory) we tend to be very warm too with temps brushing 30C, but no more than this (I think last July 19th's 31.1C at Prestwick Airport may have been the record). Highest temperatures in Scotland usually recorded further south and inland in the Dumfries & Galloway/Borders region (32.9C the record).
-
I knew they'd done something like that before, and here it is! http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/yea...06_review.shtml March 2006 "0.6 °C above the 1961-1990 average, which is in the below average category. Coldest since 1996." Really is beyond a joke.
-
Bah, humbug It's not going to make any difference to me, it's not going to get anywhere near that in Ayr or anywhere in Scotland for the rest of the year. I wanted a year without 30C in the British Isles - we haven't had one since 1993 and it would be a nice statistical quirk for the hottest (second hottest?) year on record not to achieve the temperature. Now it looks as if this weekend might just nose past it again!
-
Another remarkable stat about this month - July had fewer days with above average maxima than January had below average! http://www.climate-uk.com/graphs/0701.htm http://www.climate-uk.com/graphs/0707.htm (courtesy of Philip Eden)
-
One sign of encouragement for the very low concentrations of ice to the north of Alaska, looking very red and 'wounded' here http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/arctic.jpg is the cold air progged for that area at the start of next week http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rhavn963.gif and -5 hPa towards the end of next week. Hopefully this will slow down the melt. Polyna this year?
-
I suppose it depends which series you value the most. There's one thing for sure, if it were a CET warm record the Met Office would be very quick to cite the long-running CET - as they did for April and 2006 as a whole Maxima really did suffer in the CET zone though on wet days, compared with other regions like the SE. Still, console yourself with the fact that the UK average is -0.7C below the 71-00 average
-
Saturated soil, LP and still managed below average minima, Kold
-
Although this wouldn't have been unusual in the past, it certainly is incredible given the trend since last July, and I'd never have expected July of all months to have been so anomalously cold. Also, have a look at the Januarys of a similar rank http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/mly_cet_mean_sort.txt
-
That is a pleasant surprise given it ran above Manley for most of the month. I think this summer could turn out bang on 61-90 average actually, slightly below 71-00. This warm spell until Sunday (and it isn't warm for all of us ) doesn't even look to be much above average for the start of August and after that a possible N-NW'ly flow and GFS ensembles never going above average, it makes you wonder.
-
I'm bored of warm Septembers, there have been too many in recent years and they spoil the following winter (so the theory goes). I'd rather have a warm August - although one without 30C would certainly be a noteworthy stat since there hasn't been a year without 30C since 1993.
-
Is the summer of 2007 a turning point?
Duncan McAlister replied to Polar Continental's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
That's a bit unfair, sure the actual 3-month winter just scraped below the average (although Dec and Feb were below 61-90 CET average) but the point is it lasted from mid-November to late-March (again, both below the 61-90 average, March substantially so) without much in the way of mild in between. That is a rarity in the modern climate! -
Bang on average, 16.2. I can't see anything that would indicate a big anomaly in either direction.
-
Seems fair enough to me, have a look at the daily records (no, not the Scottish paper!) for Feb http://www.torro.org.uk/TORRO/britwxextremes/hightempsyear.php ://http://www.torro.org.uk/TORRO/britw...htempsyear.php and see how the maxima start to increase towards the end with the available daylight. Similarly, August will start to see the opposite effect with the lessening daylight, all the really big records are during the first ten days. As you say, still perfectly possible though.
-
Both excellent websites, but I've always wondered why Torro don't include the record daily minima from June-September. I've sent them an email.
-
It would be some turnaround from what looked a certain 11C+ only a couple of month ago. But, just one exceptionally warm month could swing everything back the other way. After all, was it not after last August that people were still contemplating a single figure CET?
-
I just admire his eternally optimistic nature
-
Thanks for that, although I must admit I never considered it any kind of conspiracy, perhaps just reconsideration of what concentrations were counted as ice. Having said this, that really is a stark change in the graph!
