Duncan McAlister

Jan - 3.5C Feb - 4.6C Mar - 7.0C Apr - 8.8C May - 12.6C Jun - 14.8C Jul - 17.6C Aug - 16.5C Sep - 14.5C Oct - 11.6C Nov - 9.5C Dec - 5.8C Annual CET: 10.57 Winter staying with the close to average theme, followed by a return to warmth with a very warm spring and above average summer. I think one month will challenge a record and I've picked November, basically because it hasn't been exceptionally mild for a while!

I like the look of the Arctic and Siberian Highs on GFS, and I've been punting way too high recently in general. So I've plucked up the courage to go for a relatively cold 3.5C

http://www.climate-uk.com/page2.html It's been a good inversion for bringing temperatures to average or just below, across all regions of the UK (except Ireland and Northern Scotland). For example on the 15th, W Scotland was a +1C anomaly, it is now bang on average. I feared it might just be the usual frosts in central and southern England and cloudy mildness in Scotland. Instead there have been double figure minima in the Highlands and we've had good sharp frosts in the SW too.

Perhaps, as a compromise, simply - surface cold? It's descriptive, factual and much less annoying

That wouldn't half burst the mildies' bubble. I'm sure there are some that would try to do that if this inversion (or any subsequent one) really did produce a low CET.

Gone! ALL gone! We're doomed I tells ya

A couple of 16s there in N Wales! Looks like curtains for over half the guesses. Oh well, the fun part will be seeing if anywhere can reach 17c.

Heavy shower with hail and strong gusts of wind. I'm not a mildie but after such a quiet autumn I'm quite glad to see some 'proper' weather!

The Met Office figure is the daytime max, between 0600-1800 I believe. http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/dai...007review.shtml It's possible somewhere could have breached 15.3C outside those hours, but how would we know?

Many of these (including my own) under threat tomorrow, and I think one may have already gone

A mild, zonal month with double figure minima at times. 6.5C.

I'd hazard a guess you don't mean Ayr :blink:

ISTR the highest temperature last winter wasn't actually that high, only about 15C? Anybody have the exact figure?

15.5C.

XC weather was earlier reporting 'rain snow showers' for Inverness.

All that's needed is a cool second half of the month Stratos, something we've had plenty of since May. Something like November 2005?

I really think action has to come from governments and corporations in the form of carbon rationing. I'm not usually an advocate of 'nanny state' in fact I'm quite libertarian, but I just don't think people have the motivation to reduce their quality of life to such a degree. Just look at food rationing in WWII, that had to be enforced by the state, because otherwise people wouldn't have 'tightened the belt'. Many people still didn't tighten the belt (buying from the black market etc.), despite any possible ramifications. If the state needs to intervene to coerce people into reducing their lifestyles to fight the immediate threat of fascism, it will certainly need to do the same to fight the seemingly distant (to the average Joe) but actually imminent threat of climate change. People are too busy with their own lives to give it too much thought, apart from a few middle-classes who almost seem to treat it as a kind of hobby. Switching TVs off standby, not filling your kettle, changing lightbulbs - it's all a load of garbage, not even scratching the surface of the problem. I've read George Monbiot's book Heat and found the arguments very convincing, one central one being that if people save money by turning their heating down a degree, using a more efficient lightbulb, switching off appliances, insulating their houses and so on, they will spend the money they've saved on buying lots more things - iPods, DVDs, clothes, fast-food takeaways, nights at the pub, holidays - which all do guess what? Emit greenhouse gases! For me this is the key issue and it renders the whole 'personal responsibility' argument utterly pointless.

The 00z is quite something, ideal cold synoptics really (but as always, at least a month too early). Glad I decided to check it this morning.

February 1986, -1.1C. This was also the last sub-zero month for the UK as a whole, and for Scotland and it was one lousy year before I was born, leaving me with the worrying thought I may never see one in my lifetime

Just sticking my neck out, I'll be delighted to be wrong, but these warm synoptics forecast (High over Scandy/Europe, Low to our west) seemed to take some shifting last autumn....

Remind me NEVER to predict a below average month again, it's a jinx, the only time I've done this is April, and look how successful that was http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Manchester_ens.png I think it's a strong possibility that in 10 or so days time we will be talking about a possible record month

Hadley finishes on 13.8C http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cetml1659on.dat

I don't think anyone is suggesting the year will be below average Stephen, merely that it's possible for the remaining 3 months to average 1C below the 1971-00 average?

I'm interested that the GFS ensembles have, for some time, consistently cooled down from around the 7th, which leads me to think the second half of the month could offset a very mild start. Besides, recently I've been punting way too mild and failing miserably, so 10.2C.

I think it'll be spot on 14C by Saturday morning. Was that your bet, WiB?