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Costa Del Fal

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Posts posted by Costa Del Fal

  1. The gfs ensembles have nosedived this evening, with below average temps shown from the 26th of August thru to end of its run, particularly for Aberdeen & Manchester. Rain spikes have also increased for all areas.

    http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=charts;type=ens;sess=

    the precipitation chart illustrates where the highest rainfall amounts are likely; mostly in the north west. Just a couple of days ago the same chart was showing no rainfall for these areas, so obviously taking into consideration the change in the models.

    http://wxmaps.org/pix/prec4.html

    Below average? Looks like its tanking very close to the mean actually. But given all these changes youd suggest there will be more to come right. Certainly nothing certain for the weekend onwards yet. I recommend you highlight such uncertainties in your post.

    • Like 2
  2. C'mon mushy were still going to have some very warm temperatures. It's goings to be very useable, enjoyable and good for your business. I get the feeling because its not going to be 32c them this is going to equal automatic failure. This weekend is still changing loads and so I don't know why so many are approaching it with such certainty.

  3. 18Z GFS good up to Friday/Saturday then a trough gets stuck over us before renewed HP in FI. Does seem a rather progressive run however and doubt such changes will be so quick. Not saying that because I want the heat/warmth to last longer but to me it does seem a little against the overall trend at present, but who knows, others may fall in line.

    • Like 1
  4. At least we actually wait until March. That would be like the sunlight-haters waiting until September to start drooling over winter - instead come April we have to put up with stuff like "only 8 weeks until the days start getting shorter again" and it lasts well into autumn. Posted Image

     

    Come late September I too will be looking forward to the long winter nights. Until then I'm going to savour the warmth of the sun (when it bothers to come out), which makes such a difference to the feel of things in summer.

    Precisely, from December the 22nd the countdown is on until the days shorten again!  Much less obvious the other way round!

  5. Gfs 12z and ecm 12z appear to be warm outliers, as they do not have ensemble support as evidence of an incoming heatwave!

    Posted ImagePosted Image

    At that far out, charts become very 'averaged' out due to cooler members. You will always get that. Hence the mean will never look like the perfect representation of the OP. If that is your approach, every OP will look like an outlier.

    • Like 1
  6. For christ's sake, as if it's happened again Posted Image, slate grey overcast skies and the odd spot of rain! at least expected a sunny morning, deary me.

    Haha unlucky, we had a gorgeous, warm and sunny morning here!

    Light rain on and off all day, feels noticeably more humid but couldnt top 18C. Very poor "heatwave"!

    What the hell are you on about. Since when was a Heatwave forecast? 18-20c was the Max today, perhaps up to 22c tomorrow. Do you say that just to over emphasise the cloud or just for more incessant moaning?

  7. It's really feeling like Autumn at the moment here, relentless 17c days with 95-100% cloudcover and just nothingness and another weekend of it to come this weekend, 8c last night, July and Summer in general really feels like a distant memory right now.

    Thats Telford for you! :lol: Was a pleasant evening here actually again. Cool now though of course. All changes from tomorrow/thursday then much more so early next week so dont worry!

  8. The gfs 12z op does not have ensemble support! A warm outlier from the 12z tonight!

    this is becoming a consistent pattern. A heatwave still not the likely evolution. The only thing that does look apparent, is for hp to build- leaving us with a settled 7 days, maybe longer!

    http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=charts;type=ens;sess=

    However the mean looks likely to go near 10c especially in the South which is only slightly below what it was in July so could become pretty decent for many - not Hot though.

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